• Gary Porpora

WEEK TWELVE PICKS ATS

2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU WEEK ELEVEN

WEEK ELEVEN ATS 7 – 7 2020 Overall ATS 83 – 77 - 1

Weekly Totals 3 – 3 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 30 – 37 – 3

Weekly Specials 2 – 1 – 1 Cumulative Specials: 24 – 20 – 2


GAME OF THE WEEK 9 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 6

UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 8 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 – 5 – 1

PREMIUM PICKS 5 – 4 – 1 CUMULATIVE 54 – 57 – 4


WEEK TWELVE PICKS


GAME OF THE WEEK


BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-4) @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-0) -3 45 [O]


Covid or no Covid, whenever this game gets played its usually my GOW. There is no more intense, red-eyed, or punishing rivalry in team sports.


The virus is a factor in this one—it is almost impossible to know the impact that murderous little bug will have in any of these games.


The Crows will be without Lamar Jackson and a host of other important players. The Steelers will be playing without James Connor and maybe a few more.


My advice is to say away from this baby, and just enjoy it if they play it on Tuesday Night.


I’ll take my Steelers--and the Over.


Steelers 26 Ravens 20



LOCK OF THE WEEK


CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-3) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1- 9) +6.5 49 [U]


My cousin, Kenny, texted me, asking if this week's slate had a viable candidate for an Upset Special. He was thinking about this game.


My first response was that, it wasn't a stupid pick—no pick is stupid until it loses. Anyone can justify not trusting the Browns against anyone.


Also, it is one of those games we analyze knowing Doug Marrone won’t be able to sit anywhere without searing his ass. His days are as numbered as Trumps. He’s making decisions in desperation; trying to save his job—meaning he won’t play Jake Luton to get a rookie some valuable reps, but he might start Mike Glennon over Gardner Minshew to give his team the best shot at winning.


Either way, Marrone’s Jaguars are undisciplined, their O–Line is suspect and they’ll take the field without DE Josh Allen and DBs D.J. Hayden and Daniel Thomas.


Cleveland can win this one with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rushing for huge chunks of real estate. Throw in Baker Mayfield who won’t be pressured by this Jags defense and we’re looking at a lopsided win for Cleveland.


Even without Browns defensive stud, Myles Garret doing the chasing the Jax QB will be running for his life all day.


I’m taking the Under.


***Caution: more Covid casualties may be announced prior to kick-off. Be careful betting big on this game***


Cleveland 33 Jaguars 10



UPSET SPECIAL


CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-7) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-6) -6.5 49[O]


My cousin and I were perplexed—we really couldn't find a genuine Upset Special on the slate.


The Chargers flying from the West Coast don’t seem a likely spoiler against a good Buffalo defense. …Cincy without Joe Burrow should be getting more than 5.5 points—the Giants are improving…New England, at home, looks only slightly equal to an upstart Arizona team.


I grabbed the Panthers to Upset the Vikings because I like what Matt Rhule is doing and loved the “Teddy Bridgewater gets revenge angle, even though I knew Minny RB Dalvin Cook is killing it rushing the ball and, until the let down against Dallas, the Norsemen defense had been playing the way Mike Zimmer wants them to.


After my initial selection of the Black Cats covering the Chalk--or winning outright--I saw three computer models calling for a Minnesota massacre of the young Panthers and saw trends like these:


· The Vikings lead the NFL in net yards per play over the last three games. The Panthers are 27th in this span.

· The Vikings are second in yards per rush attempt. The Panthers are 24th in yards per rush attempt allowed.

· The Panthers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games on the road.

· The total has gone OVER in the Vikings' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 59.0)

· The Vikings are 17-7 SU in their last 24 games after a loss.

· The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game


Bottom line, I went against my initial instinct and penciled in the Vikings--better team at home against a new Panthers coach still trying to figure out what he does and doesn’t have.


I broke a rule I don’t like to break—“when in doubt, always trust your first instinct,” I felt good because the Norsemen were a home favorite.


After all that hand wringing,I made the switch back to Carolina to create an Upset I initially wanted to pick.


We'll see how that works out.


The Vikes win; the Panthers Cover—just barely Over the Number.


Vikings 27 Panthers 24



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-1) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-4) +3 53 [O]


This puppy is a perfect example of the first instinct kicking in on an NFL game.


When I first saw this match-up, of two mediocre defenses—TB’s defense is way overrated and KC’s a bit underrated—I thought, ‘Shootout!’ The Bucs had been bragging about their defense until the Saints marched into Tampa a few weeks back and bitch-slapped the home team to the tune of 38-3.


You’ve got the best young QB in the league in Patrick Mahomes vs. arguably one of the top three—after accounting for his cheating—of all time in Tom Brady.


Ironically, Brady is why I think the Chiefs are going to blow Tampa Bay out of their own stadium.


He can’t throw deep. Corners and Safeties are sitting on the short and medium routes forcing pinpoint accuracy and tight spin on the ball.


Tommy Boy’s inability to complete deep throws cuts Bruce Arian’s offensive playbook in half. Read about it here:


https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/tom-brady-has-lost-the-ability-to-throw-deep-01eqxqpwv8a6


Patrick Mahomes opens up Andy Reid’s playbook, first page to last and all four corners. He puts more pressure on defenses than any quarterback in the NFL.


The Mateys will score points. I’m betting Brady will dispel the rumors about his arm strength on his first drive—he has enough weapons to make it close.


Maholmes has more; he’ll win the shootout—way Over the Total.


Chiefs 36 Buccaneers 31

.

My picks are below in bold italic…


Week 12

Thursday Nov. 26 (Thanksgiving)

Houston @ Detroit +2.5 51.5 12:30 p.m. [O]

Washington @ Dallas -3 46 4:30 p.m. [O]

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh -3 45 8:20 p.m. [O] GW

Sunday Nov. 29 1 PM

Las Vegas @ Atlanta +3 55.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo -5.5 54

New York Giants @ Cincinnati +5.5 42.5 [U]

Tennessee at Indianapolis -3 51.51 p.m.

Cleveland @ Jacksonville +6.5 49 LW [U]

Carolina @ Minnesota -4.5 48.5 US [O]

Arizona @ New England +2.5 49.5

Miami @ New York Jets +7 44.5


Sunday Nov. 29 4+ PM

New Orleans @ Denver +6 43.5

San Francisco @ Los Angeles Rams -7 46.5 [

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay +3 53 O/U

Chicago @ Green Bay -8.5 45 [O]

Monday Nov. 30

Seattle @ Philadelphia +5.5 51 [O]








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