NFL 2022 WEEK ELEVEN – TALLY SHEET
WEEK ELEVEN = 8 – 5 – 1 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 82 – 79 – 1
WEEK ELEVEN 0/U 2 – 5 O/U CUMULATIVE 37 – 36 – 1 .530
SPECIALS 3 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 27 – 16 – 1 .627
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 6 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 5 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 10 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 – 4
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 64 – 52 – 1 .552
WEEK 12 – ATS
GAME OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans 42.5 GW [U]
The books, the public, and so far the Sharks and Sharps are all over the Titans in this one—so am I.
In the NFL, coaching counts more than in any other team sport and we think Mike Vrabel is as underrated as they get.
That’s why, in an essentially a pick-‘em game, I go with Vrabel; he doesn’t have a history of cheating, yet he demonstrates a Bellichickian approach to the game.
He’s been a consistent winner with Ryan Tannehill who must bear the dreaded label of game manager. Vrabel often succeeds at taking away his opponent’s best player—but uses Derrick Henry to achieve that advantage more so than schematic genius.
Cincy has the great and confident Joe Burrow minus his favorite WR speedster, Jamar Chase, and starting RB Joe Mixon—but he does have Samaje Perine who scored three TDs last week against Pittsburgh and is tough to bring down.
We are banking on the return of Titans sack master, LB Bud Dupree and S, Amani Hooker, to make it a long afternoon for the Bengals.
Remember, when it counted the most, the Bengals eked out a 19-16 playoff win last year—and finally, this little gem from the gang at Oddssharks.com:
“Overall, the Titans have now blanked opponents in the fourth quarter in each of their past two games and have given up just two touchdowns in the fourth over their past five contests.”
We’ll take the skinny point spread, but we see a Tennessee outright win in a typical Vrabel orchestrated low scoring game. Bet the Under.
Titans 22
Bengals 19
LOCK OF THE WEEK 5-5-1
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks 47.5 LW [O]
The Las Vegas Raiders are sneaky bad—meaning they have two wins against the NFL’s worst offensive team, Denver. The Raiders only other win came against the worst team overall—the Texans.
That’s it.
Never in 15 years seriously handicapping NFL games have I expected so much from a team before the season began and saw so little of them by Week Twelve.
I thought Vegas would seriously compete for a Wild Card or even a division title if a bunch of things went right. There were NFL pundits and punjabs who had Da Raidas as a true contender for a Lombardi.
Josh McDaniel is an unsuccessful head coach. (In his defense, it is much more difficult to coach and win when you have a library of stolen signals and give your defense printouts of your opponent’s plays before each game.)
There’s no kind analysis, if these are your defensive rankings:
· 26th in TDs given up per game.
· 27th in Opp. YPG…
· 28th in YPP given up…
· 29th in 3rd Down Conversion pct.
· Dead Last in RZ TD Scoring Pct. = 70.97%...
· Dead Last in Opp. Completion Pct. = 71.47%
· Dead Last in Sack Pct. = 3.68%
· Dead Last in Takeaways/Game = 0.6
Folks, you have to try to be that bad defensively.
The Raiders earn an A+ for effort.
The Seahawks, Pete Carroll is one of the NFL’s best coaches. He is in the thick of the playoff race with career back-up turned franchise quarterback, Geno Smith.
Mr. Smith sports the 2nd best QB rating and the best Completion Pct. in the league—he’s Top Ten in every other important QB stat.
Carroll’s boys also have the 5th best YPR average on the ground. His mediocre defense will probably make the playoffs unattainable, but it should show improvement this week against a pedestrian Vegas offense.
Before the season, there were loud whispers about how Coach Carroll might be out of a job soon. Last week, “the experts” were crowning him coach of the year.
Does anyone know what they’re talking about?
We’re playing the Over in what we see as a strong LOW…
Seahawks 33
Raiders 23
UPSET SPECIAL 10-1
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts 39.5 US [O]
We do not feel as strong about this Special call as we do about our Lock…
Pittsburgh and Indy were both supposed to have better records at this juncture of the 2022 campaign. They share the same problems as do many woeful NFL teams:
· Each is struggling with two rookie 24 year-olds at QB …
The Steelers are hoping former Pitt standout, Kenny Pickett, will morph into a Big Ben type franchise QB. From this amateur scout’s eye, the kid can make all the throws, the game is slowing down week by week, he has good pocket awareness, can make positive plays with his feet, and he takes care of the ball.
Pickett needs to process his reads more quickly, and take more advantage of his talented receivers like Dionte Johnson, and keep getting the ball to rookie phenom, George Pickens.
The Colts are hoping former 6th round pick, Sam Ehlinger out of the University of Texas, will evolve into the steady, MVP level passer that recently benched QB, Matt Ryan was 5 -7 years ago.
But wait, there’s more—Matt Ryan has been named as the starter again after Jeff Saturday was hired…
Steelers fans hope Ryan gets the nod Sunday…
· How quickly those changes happen for each team rests with the growth of their offensive lines…
From three or four sites that focus on rating O-Lines as the year goes on, the consensus seems to be Pittsburgh’s group has improved significantly from one of the worst units to an average and improving unit.
Indy seems to be heading in the opposite direction.
· Another problem contributing to below the line offenses—both franchises seem to be wasting the talents and best years of their stud, young running backs.
Pittsburgh’ Najee Harris hasn’t seen the holes Jonathan Taylor saw last year when the former Wisconsin Badger averaged 5.5 YPC, 1811 yards and 18 TDs. This year a twisted ankle has hampered the promise Taylor has shown—but new coach Jeff Saturday, has let it be known he’ll live and die with Taylor.
Mike Tomlin says Taylor has the Steelers full attention.
I’m one of the old school guys—a Steeler fan—who believe owners should hire whom they believe is the best coach out there. Then, barring an unacceptable on field or off-field gaffe, or repeatedly cheating to gain a competitive advantage, let coaches coach and players play.
Robert Irsay did Frank Reich wrong by making him bench Matt Ryan, to see what Ehlinger could do. When Ehlinger spit the bit, Irsay fired Reich. Irsay then ignored NFL hiring guidelines and hired former high school coach, and Colts legend, Jeff Saturday.
A week later, Saturday announces Matt Ryan as the starter moving forward.
That defines “classless” better than Webster can.
I think self-inflicted wounds, no matter from what level of an organization, can badly scar a team. Players know what Reich went through, what Irsay did. That will trickle down at some point…
Then again, by all accounts, the Horseshoes look like a more together, more disciplined unit under Saturday--so what do I know?
This one’s mostly hunch folks. Pickett has a few games under his belt, his line is performing better—and T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense will take Taylor out of the game and dare Ryan to beat them…
I don’t think he can… We’re calling the Over…
Steelers 22
Colts 20
0VER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns 44 O/U
This isn’t a hard one folks…
Tampa Bay will be able to pass on a middling Browns pass defense.
And Cleveland will be able to run over a very average Buccaneers run defense.
But 14mph winds, rain throughout the day and 40 degree temps will conspire to keep scoring at a minimum…
We’re playing the hard Under on this one.
Lay the points to the Mateys; we like the Browns in the pound.
Browns 20
Bucs 16
As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated:
NFL WEEK TWELVE – ATS
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) vs. Detroit Lions 54 [O]
New York Giants (+8) vs. Dallas Cowboys 44 [O]
New England Patriots (+2.5 ) vs. Minnesota Vikings 42 [U]
Houston Texans (+13.5) vs. Miami Dolphins 45.5
Chicago Bears (+4.5) vs. New York Jets 42
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans 43 GW [O]
Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers 34.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns 44 O/U
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 45.5
Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) vs. Washington Commanders 43
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals 47
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks 47.5 LW [O]
Los Angeles Rams (+14.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs 49
New Orleans Saints (+8.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers 42
Green Bay Packers (+7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles 45.5 [O]
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts 39.5 US [O]