NFL 2025 WEEK EIGHTEEN - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK SEVENTEEN =  5 - 11

2025 OVERALL. =  135 - 118 - 3    .534

WEEKLY O/U  =  5 - 5     O/U CUMULATIVE  = 64  - 59  .520

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  1 - 4     CUMULATIVE  =  44 - 40 - 1  .524

GAME OF THE WEEK   9 – 8       LOCK OF THE WEEK    8 – 9

UPSET SPECIAL     8 - 9              O/U OF THE WEEK    11 – 6

STEELERS. 8 - 8 - 1   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  108  - 99 .522

GAME OF THE WEEK/STEELERS GAME

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)  41.5. GW  [O]

One day, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin will be enshrined in Canton.

...But his job status might be in flux if he loses 2025’s last game against the hated Baltimore Rat Birds--and his Steelers miss the playoffs.  Even worse, they win tonight, then suffer another first round playoff beatdown.

Many fans were calling for Tomlin’s head during their loss to Buffalo.  Some of them, have been calling for Tomlin’s job since January 28th, 2007--the day after he was hired.

I’ll let my readers decide the rationale for that immediate, visceral rejection of Coach Tomlin. 

In my opinion, to deny racism is an unfortunate part of the anti-Tomlin vitriol is to deny the obvious. (Read comments in the PG and on FaceBook...undeniable...)

Let’s begin from this premise:  A head coach's job is to put his players in the best position to win. Since 2007, Mike Tomlin has done that as well as anyone, consistently better than most--

My question to all you Tomlin haters, and this is a question for every spoiled fan base in NFL history:  When do you start looking at players with the same scrutiny as you do the coach?

Let’s look at last weeks loss in Cleveland, through that specific lens--it’s how we analyze most games:

Mike Tomlin didn't drop a dead-to-rights pick six...

Mike Tomlin didn't miss a crucial field goal...

Mike Tomlin didn't rough the QB on a crucial series...

Mike Tomlin didn't drop 3-4 passes...

Mike Tomlin didn't get suspended for two games--his number 1 WR did that...

Mike Tomlin didn't screw-up a dry needle procedure on his HOF edge rusher--team docs did.

Of course, Tomlin haters will always find reasons as to why Tomlin is at fault for such off/on field circumstances:

Another trope: He won only with Cowher’s players--Not true.  Tomlin’s winning percentage has stayed very near 65% since 2007.  His record is as good as any contemporary who hasn’t been documented as a Cheater on three separate occasions.

His playoff record at 8-11 doesn’t meet his standard--no argument here..

Again, our starting point:  A head coach's job is to put his players in the best position to win. 

Does Tomlin check that box?

This year, with a new aging quarterback, a young OL in flux, and added pressure to win a post-season game, the Steelers are in a one-game tournament to win the AFC North.  It doesn’t seem to matter to a lot of fans that Mike Tomlin teams--this year's included--seem to have never succumbed to those annoying periods of adjustment most every other team in similar flux do...

If you feel righteous in blaming Tomlin for every circumstance, don’t you have to credit him for making the playoffs in what should have been several down years?

There are precious few other head coaches in the NFL that would have taken any of the post 2019 Steelers teams to the playoffs.  Go back and look at those rosters, the QBs and skill positions, both OL and DL.

This is not a defense of HCMT; his record of excellence--post-season setbacks included--speaks for itself...

Maybe HOF Coach, Dick Vermeil was right and 15 -20 years is any coach's window for success. Maybe Tomlin parting ways is exactly what the Steelers, and their head coach, need. That is Art Deuce's call.

But, I know this: Tomlin is under contract through next year, and possibly 2027, if they pick up his option by 3/1/26...and we all know the Rooneys aren't going to pay Tomlin 16M to play golf, and pay a new coach 8-12M...

ANOTHER COMMON TOMLIN MYTH

Mike Tomlin is “mediocre”...The Steelers are a dysfunctional team...

Let’s see how that holds up when we compare Tomlin’s rankings in 18 different categories from teamrankings.com  (Team Trends)...  

(Remember, in all my NFL analyses, I never give NE any respect.  Their record of excellence is eclipsed only by their record of cheating to gain a competitive advantage.  In most of the categories listed NE's rank is not considered.)

In each of the circumstances listed, here is Tomlin's Steelers ranking, as of today:

AFTER A BYE = #1

AFTER A WIN = #3

AFTER A LOSS = #1

AS HOME TEAM = #2

AS AWAY TEAM = #3

AS FAVORITE = #12

AS UNDERDOG = #1

AS HOME FAVORITE = #6

AS HOME DOG = #2

AS AWAY FAVORITE =  #23

WITH REST ADVANTAGE = #2

WITH REST DISADVANTAGE = #1

WITH EQUAL REST = #3

CONFERENCE GAMES = #2  (#1 IN THE AFC)

NONCONFERENCE = # 5

DIVISION = #1

REG. SEASON = #2

PLAYOFFS = #18

Let’s summarize that data in the above 18 categories:

• Tomlin/Steelers is the league's best in 5 categories

• Tomlin/Steelers makes the Top Two 10 times

• Tomlin/Steelers makes the Top Three 13 times

• Tomlin/Steelers falls out of the Top Five only 4 times

• Tomlin/Steelers falls out of the Top Ten only 2 times

Excepting maybe Andy Reid, I'd bet no other coach comes close to Tomlin's sustained level of excellence, no matter the circumstances.  

Also, remember, Mike Tomlin is the longest-tenured coach in the league.  To be that high on the above list proves his excellence has been sustained throughout his time as the Steelers coach.

Such a level of excellence dispels the notion HCMT is "mediocre."  It convincingly shows the man has never ”lost” a team, and that even when his and management’s personnel decisions don’t work out--we can argue, too many don’t--his team plays at a high level.

Again, the playoff record isn't what we want, but I contend one overlooked factor surely has to do with taking four teams, since Ben retired, to the playoffs--teams that in my view weren't up to anyone’s standard.

OH YEAH...THE CALL

The most physical game--twice a year--of any season in the Tomlin/Harbaugh era.  The wildcard factor here is the defenses are barely average and we think  the rushing games will decide the issue.

Of course, Derrick Henry is the alpha-dog on that front, and A-Aron Rodgers future HOF induction notwithstanding, we have to give Lamar Jackson the edge as QB--the coaches are equally excellent.

We’re going with Pittsburgh to Cover only because of the Hook, (3.5), and Tomlin’s success as a Home Dog coach.  In the end, I think the Ravens win by a field goal--Over the Number.

Ravens  26  

Steelers  23

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5)  36.5  LW  [O]

Even though the Arrowheads are probably still in shock for missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade, I don’t see Andy Reid letting his boys play down to the level of the Raiders, who assure themselves of the drafts first pick with a loss.

Take the Over--remembering it is Week Eighteen.

Chiefs  27

Raiders 10

UPSET SPECIAL

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (+5)   52.5  US  [U]

Said it before--I’ll say it again:  the Dallas Cowboys are the most over-rated franchise in the history of American team sports.  The only reason they get so much TV exposure is because of their national following--the credit for which goes to their loyal fans--fans who don’t care their beloved “Boys haven’t sniffed a championship in 30 years.

The Giants--and rookie QB Jaxson Dart--showed some character in last week’s win in Vegas. 

The G-Men’s other two victories were quality outings against the Chargers and Philly.  A glance at their record shows a highly competitive team that lost by more than one score in six of thirteen games--none were blowouts and four of those setbacks were against playoff teams.

We’ll take the Home Dog G-Men, and the Points--go with the Under...

Giants  27

Cowboys  24

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) 43.5  O/U

Our reasoning here is these teams are division rivals who probably aren’t worried about the outside noise, i.e. if the Falcons beat the Saints the, Sweet Carolines win the NFC South no matter the outcome of this game against Tampa.

I expect Carolina and the Mateys to go full throttle.  Teams playing in Week Eighteen with a potential division title at stake will tend to take more risks, go for it on fourth down, open the playbook--on both sides of the ball--and bring playoff level intensity to the field.

Statistically, neither squad has the goods to deliver a playoff run, but in a league where every team has significant warts, any outcome is possible.

Panthers QB Bryce Young has shown he earned “first overall” status in the 2023 draft, though, he has only just begun to emerge from the muck of inconsistency that plagues most young QBs.   At first, I chalked it up as a small guy--5’10” 205 lbs--trying to compete in a much bigger world, but he has improved his play since Week Nine’ with victories over three playoff teams and a nail-biter win versus the Mateys.

I have to readjust my “little man” analysis; the last time I thought a first-round pick was too small was after the Crows picked Lamar Jackson.  His playoff record is underwater, yes, but he’s only won two MVPs and taken Baltimore to an AFCCG.

Baker Mayfield and his Matey’s last two quality wins were Weeks Five and Six when they out-gunned Seattle in the Northwest and beat the Niners at home.  Their last four outings were very close losses to three teams out of playoff contention.

Mayfield is by all accounts over his shoulder and knee issue--as much as possible, anyway--we’ve been a Baker fan from his stint in Cleveland.

Lay the Chalk and play the Over...

Buccaneers 26

Panthers 21

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...

(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)

NFL WEEK 18 ODDS POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS 

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3 ) 43.5  O/U

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) 49.5. [O]

New Orleans Saints  @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)   43.5

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)   44.5

Indianapolis Colts  @ Houston Texans (-10)   40.5

Tennessee Titans  @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)  47.5

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)   37.5

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (+5)   52.5  US  [O]

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-7)  39.5

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)   49.5

Los Angeles Chargers  @ Denver Broncos (-12.5)  37.5  

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-7)   47.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5)  36.5  LW  [O]

Miami Dolphins (+10) @ New England Patriots (-10)   45.5

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4)  42.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)  41.5. GW  [O]