NFL 2025 AFCCG - PICK ATS

When: Sunday, January 25 at 3:00 pm ET

Where: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado

Channel: CBS / Paramount+

Patriots vs. Broncos Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, January 21. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Patriots -258, Broncos +210

Spread: Patriots -5.5 (-102), Broncos +5.5 (-118)

Total:  42.5 

When I first heard about Bo Nix’s, the Denver QB’s fractured ankle, I wasn’t alone in leaning heavily toward the visiting Patriots even with the Broncs getting a hefty 5.5 Due to Jarrett Stidham, only a decent back-up, getting the start for Denver.

WHAT’S TRENDING

Here are some trends from the best in the business, Steve Makinen at vsin.com

• Home teams are 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS (63.2%) in the last 19 AFC title clashes. 

• Home teams that were in the playoffs the prior year are on a 26-8 SU and 20-14 ATS (58.8%) run in the championship round, including 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) versus teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior season. 

• Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS run since 2016, and hosts allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 24-7 SU and 20-11 ATS (64.5%) since 2002.

• This head-to-head series has seen underdogs go 5-2 SU and ATS since November 2014.

We all know Conference Championship Games usually feature evenly matched teams, point spreads are short, turnovers are huge, and the pivotal plays can happen at any time.  All of the above is true in most every NFL game, but magnified exponentially at the championship level.

I also know Sean Payton has been successful no matter who his quarterback is. Teddy Bridgewater, Trevor Simian, and more recently Taysom Hill come to my mind.  

Along with Mike McCarthy, Sean Payton’s QB whispering prowess is one of the most successful in 21st century NFL football.

VSIN’s Makinen confirmed my memory of New Orleans starting QB, Jameius Winston’s 2021 injury...

Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book got starts in 2021. Winston got 7, Siemian got 4, Hill got 5 total with the other positions he plays, and Book got one.

All of those Saints’ quarterbacks combined for the following: 

293/503 3,186 yards 

29 touchdowns 13 interceptions 87.4 passer rating

In the 2019 season, Teddy Bridgewater started five games because of an injury to Drew Brees. In those five games, the Saints went 5-0, and Bridgewater’s numbers were as follows:

133/196 (67.9%) 1,384 yards 9 touchdowns 2 interceptions 99.1 passer rating

Overall, Payton has had success in those games having to start a backup QB, going 12-9 SU and 14-7 ATS.

Payton is also 61-42-2 ATS (59.2%) for his career as an underdog.

As we all know, in these next-level NFL games, you can find trends favoring or contra indicating either team:

• New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games.

• New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.

• New England is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Denver.

• New England is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games against Denver.

• New England is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games on the road.

• New England is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Denver.

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games against an opponent in the AFC.

• The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England's last 11 games played in January.

• New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games played on a Sunday.

What cements my pick--this won’t shock you, being from a Pittsburgh guy--is one stat that has ramifications for several others:  the Denver Broncos sack the quarterback over 10% of the time, by far the NFL’s best; the Pats QB gets sacked at a 9.4% clip, (27th). 

Drake Mayye can be rattled. In his two post-season starts he’s fumbled six times and been sacked ten times.

Denver might not be able to run or score much on a stout Patriot defense, but we don’t think they’ll have to--that means were confident in the Under

The current line is 3.5; I’m getting great value having the 5.5 Line posted earlier in the week--which makes us equally comfortable riding the Wild Horses.

Broncos  21

Patriots. 17