NFL 2025 NFCCG - PICK ATS

When: Sunday, January 25 at 6:30 pm ET

Where: Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington

Channel: FOX

Moneyline: Seahawks -142, Rams +120

Spread: Seattle -2.5 

Total: 46.5 

Conference Championship game...Division Rivals...

Tough call...

My first thought--up until I wrote this post--after I considered the Rams performance throughout 2025 campaign--was to lean toward the better defense and the home team--with the unique home field example. (Just like I did for the AFCCG.)

But the visitors here are the L.A. Rams lead by the NFL’s best coach--this side of Andy Reid--in Sean McVay.  His Big Horns had to struggle to beat Carolina, NFC South champs via a losing record, and an experience-challenged Bears group in overtime.

Seattle totally dominated the seriously injured and outmanned 49ers to the point where QB, Sam Darnold, sat out the last few minutes.

Hence, the dilemma.

At this penultimate level of the NFL playoffs, experience and coaching mean a lot.  Which brings me back to the late, great Gil Brandt, who shared his playoff handicapping methodology during his stint as an expert on Sirius NFL radio.

In one of his last playoff runs, trying to prioritize the importance of his top ten factors, Mr. Brandt said that if the most important stats like YPP, rushing yards, 3rd down, etc., were equal, the three biggest factors are:

1.) DEFENSE...Scoring Defense, YPP surrendered, and differential, and total defense.

Seattle earns a big edge here, but not as big as a cursory glance at the stats would lead us to believe.

Courtesy Wes Reynolds at vsin.com:

The two meetings between these teams produced these numbers:

Points Scored = Rams: 58; Seahawks: 57

Total Yards = Rams: 830; Seahawks: 829

In today's game, the Big Horns’ number one scoring offense is, at least, the equal of Seattle’s number one scoring defense.

ADVANTAGE: Seahawks

2.) QUARTERBACK...We give Matt Stafford the huge edge here, both in experience and performance.  He’s won a Super Bowl, there’s not a gutsier QB in the league; he’s second to Drake Maye in QB rating and will wear a gold jacket one day.

Sam Darnold?  Not so much.  We love his perseverance, but he led the league in turnovers, (20) and that oblique injury he suffered at Carolina is still a thing.

ADVANTAGE: Rams

3.) COACHING...We love Mike Macdonald, even if he once DCed the hated Maryland Magpies.  He’s turned over the Seahawks fortunes like a skilled chef flipping an omelet.

Sean McVay is the coach every NFL owner would name as the number one guy they want on his sideline.  Every coach on his staff is deemed a hot prospect and interviews for a HC job because they are on his staff. 

Rumor has it, the Browns interviewed his mom for their head coach vacancy.

ADVANTAGE: Rams

Rams 26

Seahawks  24