NFL WEEK SIX PICKS - ATS
WEEK FIVE NFL 2026 - PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD - (ATS)
NFL 2025 WEEK FOUR = 11 - 5 2025 OVERALL. = 29 - 34 - 1
WEEKLY O/U = 3 - 4 O/U CUMULATIVE = 13 - 15
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 9 - 11
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 2 - 2 O/U OF THE WEEK 1 – 3
STEELERS 1 - 3 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 22 - 26
NFL WEEK FOUR PICKS ATS
As I navigate the pitfalls on the Road to Respectability, we end the “real” NFL pre-season with an excellent 11-5 week...
One good week does not negate three awful weeks...Nothing to see here....
Let’s get right to the Week Five picks...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (-3) 53.5 GW [O]
We haves changed our pick for this inter-conference battle almost every day this week.
When in doubt, go with the better HC, QB and defense...
The Bills have the youngest head coach in the league, 36 year-old Joe Brady, and a porous defense. Their success lies with their monster QB, Josh Allen, who, at 6’6” 250 can throw it 60 yards, run over linebackers, and make any throw ever conceived--he’s the best in the business.
To quote Meatloaf: “...Two outta three aint bad...”
Bet the Bills, and the Over....
Bills 27
Rams 26
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (-2.5) 40 LW [O]
Look for yourself; there is not a legitimate Lock on the Week Five slate.
The Browns showed some heart against the Steelers and have had 3-4 more days to prepare for this one--and they’re getting 2.5 Points.
We like the Over...
Browns 24
Jets 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) 42 O/U
We chose this AFC West matchup because of the intensity of a division rivalry, the quarterback profiles and the coaches, and the common theme running through two organizations that entered the season as legitimate Super Bowl contenders--neither looks the part going into Week Five.
Denver has played a much tougher schedule than the Bolts, they lost two road contests against the Arrowheads in week one and the Niners last week; winning in Weeks 2-3 against Jax and the Big Horns at Mile High.
The Chargers have looked anything but the Jim Harbaugh-led ready-to-make-their mark squad that he seems to develop wherever he has coached. It’s not too extreme to believe his boys will play like the desperate team they should be.
It’s also eminently reasonable to think this game will be close. Since 2019--fourteen games--only four outcomes were determined by more than one score, and last year’s 19-3 win clinched the AFC West for Denver, as L.A. sat most of their starters for their impending Wild-Card playoff game the following week.
Truth be told, we could see any result in this one. We wavered all week, then decided to go with the Wild Horses when Sean Payton announced he would be calling plays instead of OC Davis Webb.
Payton has two peers in the NFL world as a play caller--Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan. The Broncos will have a productive offensive day against a suspect Bolts defense. We believe Harbaugh will field a desperate team against a much healthier division rival--Over the Total.
Broncos 26
Chargers 22
UPSET SPECIAL
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) 53 US [O]
Don ‘t be surprised to see these teams surpass the 70 point threshold as they bring two of the worst defenses in the game to this showdown in the desert. Each squad surrenders almost 30 PPG; the Lions field the poorest pass defense--304 Opp PYPG-while the Red Birds give up a whopping 9.1 Yards per pass...
The scheduling gods put the screws to the Desert Dwellers this year. Six of their first nine games are on the road. They also play in the league’s best division, and yet, again, must endure the inevitable period-of-adjustment that comes with a new coaching staff, mandated to change the culture--i.e. WIN!
In the last six seasons, Arizona flat stinks as a Home Team or Home Dog ATS. Jacoby Brissett’s first year as a starter--his eleventh campaign in the NFL--might come to a premature close if the Red Bird offense doesn’t start to sing.
We think, they may find some harmony against a Lions squad that may be tiring of the Dan Campbell schtick--I know we are ...
We’re calling the Home-Dog Cardinals to Cover--Over the Number.
Lions 30
Cardinals 27
STEELERS GAME
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers 44 (-2) [O]
The “period of adjustment” to new coaching staffs varies from team to team. Less glorified franchises like Arizona or Tennessee need more time getting in synch with new head coaches like Mike LeFleur, and Robert Saleh, respectively.
LaFleur’s biggest claim to fame is his genetic connection to brother Mike in Green Bay; Saleh’s gig with the Jets never took off.
Winning franchises like the Giants or Ravens go one of two ways when it comes to hiring new head men--hire a young stud like Jesse Minter, or find one who has a ring and/or a solid, winning track record. John Harbaugh led the Magpies to three losing seasons in 18 years, 12 playoff appearances, and a Super Bowl title.
Every Giants player knows Coach Hafrbaugh is a HOF coach and is to be respected. Cardinals players know Mike LeFleure is related to a semi successful coach in Green bay. He needs more time than Harbaugh to earn trust.
Which brings us to the Men Of Steel. Art Rooney replaced Mike Tomlin with Pittsburgh native, Mike McCarthy after his younger brother, Dan, perfected the “young stud” head coach option--Coach Tomlin, Bill Cowher, and the legendary Chuck Noll were all young defensive coaches who were given time to earn the respect of their teams--and they were all winners.
Art Rooney’s hiring of Mike McCarthy is a break from his own family’s tradition. McCarthy’s record is nearly identical to Harbaughs--and Tomlin’s for that matter--and every Steeler knows their new coach is a HOFer, and their period of adjustment should be less fraught.
At 2-2 and coming off a heart-breaking loss to division enemy, Cleveland, coupled with a a very public dust up between McCarthy and his former QB, A-A-Ron Rodgers, the Burgh was in a tizzy all week.
I think the public tension between the coach and his quarterfback is evidence that the Steelers might be coming together. The incident reveals consummate competitors who respect one another and know what it takes to win a championship.
Problem is, Pittsburgh faces an Indy squad who went the other way and hired Shane Steichen, an OC young stud, from the 2021 Eagles who went to the Super Bowl--he also knows what it takes to get to the top of the mountain.
On paper these two teams are evenly matched, Indy QB Daniel Jones, has been inconsistent after last year’s Achille’s rupture; A-A-Ron Rodgers has missed wide open receivers--and they’ve have dropped way too many very catchable balls.
I’m going with the combined experience on the Pittsburgh sideline. If their D-Line can stop Jonathan Taylor from trampling the Black & Gold defense into the Acrisure Stadium sod, the Steelers win going away. If Jaylen Warren can exploit the very pedestrian Indy run defense, it won’t matter what Jones or Taylor do.
We’ll call the Over. Taylor might enjoy the absence of run stopper, Derek Harmon--and Pittsburgh will score over 24 points.
Steelers 26
Colts 23
Here’s the entire Week Five slate:
NFL WEEK 5 ODDS: POINT SPREADS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) 47.5 [U]
Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) 43 [O]
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins (+7.5) 42
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots (-3.5) 45.5
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (+1.5) 42.5
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (-2.5) 40 LW [O]
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers 44 (-2) [O]
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (+6.5) 39.5
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-3.5) 44
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (+2.5) 44
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) 42 O/U
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) 53 US [O]
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) 46.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) 47 [O]
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (-3) 53.5 GW [O]
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