NFL 20216 WEEK FOUR PICKS ATS
Updated: 3 days ago
WEEK FOUR NFL 2026 - PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD - (ATS)
It’s a sad day in Gairzoville when you tout a 6-9-1- Week Three tally as an improvement on two 6-10 handicapping debacles.
Here’s our Tally Sheet after three very forgettable performances by your very humble prognosticator:
NFL 2025 WEEK THREE = 6 - 9 - 1 2025 OVERALL. = 18 - 29 - 1
WEEKLY O/U = 2 - 5 O/U CUMULATIVE = 10 - 11
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 2 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 6 - 9
GAME OF THE WEEK 1 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 1 - 2 O/U OF THE WEEK 1 – 2
STEELERS 1 - 2 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 16 - 20
NFL WEEK FOUR PICKS ATS
GAME OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders +4.5. 47.5 GW
No in-depth research required here. This is a feel pick for me.
KC has dominated this AFC rivalry, going back to 2015, the Eye Patches can only point to four victories in the series, against the most dominant AFC team this side of the Cheatin’ Belichicks--and too many of those Chiefs wins have been serious smackdowns
What’s different now is the Raiders are starting to believe they can play with anyone-and win. Probably because rookie head coach, Klint Kubiak and 15 year QB, Kirk Cousins, seem to have found each other to be a perfect fit, and having Fernando Mendoza--the 2026 #1 overall draft pick--soaking up all that Cousins can teach him only adds to the good vibes in Sin City.
Maxx Crosby, a bonafide defensive game changer no longer has to play as if only he can win a game.
We don’t think the Raidas are quite ready to flip the script on the Arrowheads, but we do think they’ll keep it close. We’re calling the Under.
Chiefs 23
Raiders 21
LOCK OF THE WEEK
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears -3 43 LW [O]
Any way you look at it, the Bears have the better roster, more star talent, and the better QB, although Caleb Williams will be nursing his grade two hamstring tear on the bench.
Bears head honcho, Ben Johnson hasn’t revealed if Tyson Bagent or Case Keenuim will start for Williams, but does it matter? Da Bears average over 180 yards on the ground, and that will make any second or third-string QB look better than he should.
Fun fact; Johnson coordinated the very proficient Lions offense before Chicago pilfered him from Dan Campbells Detroit staff--his defensive colleague on that staff was Aaron Glen who the Airplanes hired last year. Word has it these guys pushed each other and their respective units.
I won’t under estimate Glenn’s defensive play-calling, but his lone win was against the Titans, losses have come against The Pack and Detroit; only the Lions have a better than average offense.
We like the Bears at home and expect a close game--Over the Total.
Bears 24
Jets 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints -3 47.5. O/U
After reading a couple of articles/stat sheets, and analytics. I was leaning toward the home team Holy Men because Atlanta RB, Bijan Robinson, was questionable with an injury. Evidently that question has been answered and the Falcons are giddy--New Orleans, not so much...
In fact, the Saints better pray good the guy who wrote this article doesn’t know what he’s talking about:
BTW, I checked, the author knows of what he speaks.
Injuries have hit both teams unusually hard not even a month into the season. The Saints might be without two starting linemen and their two best run-stopping linebackers against one of the toughest runners in the league in Robinson.
Two other stats sealed the deal for me. New Orleans has serious trouble tackling. Chalk that up to the Saints facing arguably the best four running backs in the NFL--Jamyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty, Derek Henry and, this week, Bijan Robinson.
With the injuries the Saints face this week, Atlanta will, in essence, go against a one-dimensional team. After three games, the Bayou Boys only gain 3.8 YPR, the Falcons give up a league low 2.8--and are the league’s best in every other rushing defense stat.
The Falcons should run all over their division rival--Under the Number...
Falcons 26
Saints 13
UPSET SPECIAL
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals -2 51 US [O]
Wow! We jumped on this baby as soon as we saw the line. The Steelers put up 31 points on what was supposed to be a much improved “Natti defense.
We love Joe Burrow for many more reasons than he looks like one of our favorite comedians, Jim Breuer, and his group of receivers from Jamarr Chase down is the NFL’s best unit--but the Striped Cats are offensively unbalanced; passing almost as twice as much as they run. Burrow is talented enough to exploit a Jags defense that surrenders a lot of air yards--but the ‘Wires also lead the league in interception percentage and are 5th best at sacking the QB. Burrow’s taskI won’t be easy...
Jacksonville is the bargain pick of the week. They should beat Cincy handily--but this is the NFL. We’ll call the Over
Jaguars 27
Bengals 26
STEELERS GAME
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns +2.5 38 [O]
I don’t want to talk about it!
Browns 27
Steelers 24
NFL WEEK FOUR POINT SPREADS & TOTALS)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns +2.5 38 [O]
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders +3 47 [U]
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens -11 43.5
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -7 48.5
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears -3 43 LW [O]
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals -2 51 US [O]
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans -2.5 47.5
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants +2.5 43.5
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles. +2 46
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 41
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings -10 41
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders +4.5. 47.5 GW [U]
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks -6.5 44
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers -3 46.5
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers +3. 50. [O]
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints -3 47.5. O/U
Comments