NFL 2025 WILD CARD WEEKEND - PICKS ATS
- Gary Porpora
- 11 hours ago
- 9 min read
SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND
I handicap NFL games from various statistical and instinctual starting points. In the post-season, where most teams are are in the NFL’s upper tiers, I try to stick closer to the legendary Cowboys exec, Gil Brandt method he made famous during his stint as an analyst for Sirius NFL radio.
Mr. Brandt had a ten-point checklist to determine the better team--and likely playoff winners. He tweaked that list up until his 2023 passing:
Yards per Play...Offense & Defense...
YPP Differential...
Offensive balance...
Red Zone Scoring Efficiency on both sides of the ball...
Defensive Scoring
Scoring Differential
3rd down efficiency on both sides of the ball...
Turnover Differential
Sacks...
Strength of schedule
Ability of the coaching staff to adjust in-game...
What set Mr. Brandt apart from other analysts was his focus on coaching and quarterback big game experience as being paramount. For example, A-A-Ron Rodgers presence in Pittsburgh, along with Mike Tomlins historical consistency vaults Pittsburgh from unlikely to even win against Houston to to serious Super Bowl contender--reasoning that experience better equips a team to deal with inevitable in-game adversity.
The last 3-4 years, I didn’t use the Brandt method as faithfully as I used to, and my percentages suffered. I’ve been at or below .500 in the last few post-seasons. Let’s see if we can change that outcome this year...
NFL PLAYOFF ODDS: WILD-CARD POINT SPREADS
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (+10) 46.5 [U]
When: Saturday, January 10 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
Channel: FOX
Moneyline: Rams -550, Panthers +410
Spread: Rams (-105) Panthers +10 (-115)
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (+10) 46.5
The Rams operate in the NFL’s best division, the NFC West, where the top thee teams have double digit wins...Los Angeles has been the best team in the NFL for most of the year, consistently in the Top Five Power Rankings, and their record tells us why:
Each of their five losses were decided by three points --or less...
The Big Horns lone loss to a team with a losing record was 31-28 to these same Panthers in Week 13...in Charlotte...in the early window...
Eight of their twelve wins were blowouts--(+14 or more points)--including wins against the Niners, Jax, and the Magpies...
The four relatively close wins: Indy, the Texans, Seattle, and Detroit...
In contrast:
Carolina won the NFC South via default. No team had a winning record.
They suffered blowout losses to. The Bills, NE, The Jags, and Seattle...
Their schedule was anemic and their division was, by far, the league’s worst...
Here are some trends--applicable to all six Wildcard Games--from Steve Makinen at vsin.com:
– There have been 34 NFL playoff games since 2003 in which the road team won more games in the regular season. These visitors are just 14-20 SU and 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%).
It would seem that home-field advantage is heightened in the postseason. In many cases, these hosts also draw motivation from being underdogs. It’s not always the “better” team that wins, particularly early in the postseason. In 2025, there were four such games, and hosts swept them, both SU and ATS.
For 2026, the wild card round finds Carolina, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh as host teams that have won fewer regular-season games than their opponents.
– Home teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have actually fared well in the NFL playoffs recently, going 16-5 SU and 15-5-1 ATS (75%) since 2009. System matches for 2026: Carolina, Philadelphia
– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 30-36 SU but 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) since 2004. System matches for 2026: San Francisco, Green Bay, LA Rams, Buffalo, New England (if playing at Denver)
When I first saw this line--the highest playoff spread in history--I was leaning toward the Black Cats, given their Week 13 victory against the Rams. But let’s keep it real: the lopsided Matchup Stats, a below .500 Record, and the back-hoe way the Black Cats came into the post-season clearly says to me that Carolina really doesn’t belong in this field.
The Big Horns are elite.
Lay the points. I think the Rams will win in a rout; we’re calling the Under.
Rams 32
Panthers 10
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+1). 45.5 [U]
When: Saturday, January 10 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Packers vs. Bears Odds
Moneyline: Packers -118, Bears -102
Spread: Packers -1.5 (-102), Bears +1.5 (-118)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+1). 45.5 [U]
I’m a huge Ben Johnson fan and a Matt LaFleur fan; also love the history the NFL’s longest rivalry offers, but I gotta tell you both these squads seem to be playoff mirages.
Look at their schedules. 9-7-1 Green Bay has exactly two wins against playoff teams--Pittsburgh and Chicago. Da 11-6 Bears have three--the Steelers, Green Bay, and Philly.
Only the Packs Week Three 13-10 loss to the Clevelands can be considered a “bad loss” for either team--but not to me; the Browns defense is for real.
Our Gil Brandt based stat comparison shows a serious Packer tilt when it comes to YPP surrendered. Green Bay holds opponents to a 9th best 5.0 YPP while Chicago 6.0 Ranks a lowly 29th. YPP is one of the most significant stats in football because it impacts TOP, play callling, and the options a team can choose from throughout the game. (IF a team performs to their regular season level.)
Green Bay fields the consistently better defense. Offensively, these division foes are pretty even.
Bears fans will point to Chicago’s #1 standing in the turnover categories--TO/Game, Giveaways, takeaways and Opp Int. % but my thinking is this stat doesn’t necessarily carry over into the playoff, especially versus a division rival.
I agree with Brandt, and most of the NFL punditry, that TO Differential or the ability to take the ball away are huge to any game’s outcome. I differ only on the weight of that stat.
For example, Chicago forces the most turnovers in football this year, but that doesn’t automatically mean the Bears will meat their “quota” for this, or any other playoff matchup. Turnovers happen organically in every game, often due to intangible factors like momentum, in game situations, or just plain dumb luck. (See T.J. Watts interception vs. The Crows, last week.)
Even though we think rookie Ben Johnson and his 2nd year QB, Caleb Willliams are going to be post-season contenders for the next decade, this is the NFL post-season--experience matters. LaFleur’s 3-5 playoff record is better than it looks; he’s taken his club to the NFCCG three times.
LeFleur’s Pack has been here before--not as the seventh seed. Lower expectations might be exactly what Green Bay needs to make 2025 their year.
For the record, we wrote all of the above, doing our research at teamrankings .com...
We then checked out the best in the business Steve Makinen to see if his systems support our analysis. Makinen offers up these pearls of wisdom...
Chicago’s QB Caleb Williams, as quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as an underdog are 10-27 SU and 14-22-1 ATS (38.9%) since 2006.
Chicago’s pass defense, allows 7.2 yards per attempt, 28th in the NFL...Home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%) since 2012.
Head coach Matt LaFleur’s team happens to be sixth in the NFL in offensive yards per pass attempt, averaging 7.9. Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) since 2004. From vsin.com
Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 16-26 ATS (38.1%) skid since 2017 in Wild Card playoff games...
And on the fierce nature of this rivalry, in the last 28 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone just 11-17 ATS (39.3%). You should also know that favorites are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the GB-CHI divisional rivalry.
Even with all that data on the Pack’s side, this is essentially a pick-em game--there are, I’m sure, other trends that would favor Chicago.
We’ll give Da Bears the skinny Chalk and enjoy what should be a nail-biter--play the Under.
Packers 24
Bears 21
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (P) 51.5
When: Sunday, January 11 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida
Channel: CBS
Bills vs. Jaguars Odds
Moneyline: Bills -112, Jaguars -108
Spread: Bills (+102), Jaguars (P) (-122)
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (P) 51.5
Talk about a tight matchup...Only this one has the look of an OK Corral shootout.
Buffalo gets a sharp edge on the offensive side of the ball; the Jags get a slight nod defensively. The Bills league-leading rushing game faces off against the elite Jacksonville rush defense.
The ‘Wires barely average ground game may be able to exploit a very vulnerable Buffalo rush defense.
Otherwise it’s a quarterback battle between Josh Allen, who has played 13 post-season (7-6) games--earning a 101.7 rating, but has yet to advance to a Super Bowl--and Trevor Lawrence, who has only two playoff games under his belt.
Trevor Lawrence = https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/trevor-lawrence-career-postseason-stats
No comparison, especially when you consider the Jags rookie coach, Liam Cohen.
In any pick-’em playoff game, ala Gil Brandt, experience and consistency are crucial.
Easy call. We’re taking the Bills and the Over...
Bills 29
Jaguars 26
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) 44.5 [O]
When: Sunday, January 11 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Channel: FOX
49ers vs. Eagles Odds
Moneyline: Eagles -238, 49ers +195
Spread: Eagles (-105), 49ers +4.5 (-115)
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) 44.5 [O]
Currently the Niners are getting 5.5 At most books, and we were a little late in grabbing the opening 3.5--but We are getting good value at 4.5.
San Fran has had a ton of injuries leading to an uneven season, culminating in their flaccid offensive output in the division showdown with the Hawks last week.
The Niners will have to lean on Christian McCaffery’s talents to negate Brock Purdy’s inconsistency. That won’t be a problem for the Eagles
The Prospectors crippled on both sides of the ball and the defending champs Eagles can take advantage of their coaching advantage and the whole world’s disrespect of Jalen Hurts to minimize any offense the GoldMiners can muster.
This is a bad matchup for the Left Coast visitors. Lay the Chalk, we’re calling the Over.
Eagles 30
49ers 20
Los Angeles Chargers @ at New England Patriots -3.5 45.5 (-3.5)
When: Sunday, January 11 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Channel: NBC / Peacock
Chargers vs. Patriots Odds
Moneyline: Patriots -185, Chargers +154
Spread: Patriots (-108), Chargers +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 45.5 (-115), Under 45.5 (-105)
Los Angeles Chargers @ at New England Patriots -3.5 45.5 (-3.5)
Every pundit and their mothers of invention are picking the home team Patriots to handle the Bolts fairly easy. That conclusion being reached in spite of glaringly week schedule played by NE during which they beat exactly one team with a winning record. Also, Drake Maye’s growth in his second year and his status as an MVP favorite has led to most pundits eagerly wagering on the Pats...
I’m not so sure...
Wes Reynolds at vsin.com, adds to NE’s weak schedule issue with this:
...The Patriot’s impressive record needs to have some context added to it. For one, New England beat one team with a winning record this season. They not only faced bad teams but also faced a massive slate of backup or benched QBs:
Week 2 @ MIA vs. Tua Tagovailoa (benched later in the season)
Week 6 @ NO vs. Spencer Rattler (benched)
Week 7 @ TEN vs. Cameron Ward (rookie)
Week 8 vs. CLE vs. Dillon Gabriel (rookie backup)
Week 11 vs. NYJ vs. Justin Fields (benched)
Week 12 @ CIN vs. Joe Flacco (backup)
Week 13 vs. NYG vs. Jaxson Dart (rookie)
Week 16 @ BAL vs. Tyler Huntley (backup replaced Lamar Jackson after early injury)
Week 17 @ NYJ vs. Brady Cook (third-string rookie backup)
Week 18 vs. MIA vs. Quinn Ewers (rookie backup)
Now they get a well-rested Chargers team whose defense started to peak late in the season and have to face Justin Herbert, who is 12-2-1 ATS in his career as an underdog of more than 3 points.
While I greatly respect Mike Vrabel’s performance as a head coach, especially in Nashville where he was seriously QB challenged, and in New England where he has been tasked to remove the cheating stench from the organization, while developing Drake Maye into a franchise, MVP, I have to wonder if his team thrived in a perfect weak-schedule storm.
The public and Sharp money heavily favors the Pats, ATS and SU--but The Gairzo thinks Jim
Harbaugh’s talent is being shortchanged. This kind of game--in which his team isn’t supposed to exceptionally perform is exactly the situation the guy thrives in. His .621 Winning percentage as an ATS Underdog proves the point.
We just have a feeling about this game. We’ll take the Electricians to shock the world and pull off the outright Upset--over the Number
Chargers 27
Patriots 23
Tomorrow...
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3). 3
Comments