NFL 2025 WEEK SEVENTEEN - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK SIXTEEN =  12 - 4

2025 OVERALL. =  130 - 107 - 3    .549

WEEKLY O/U  =  3 - 5     O/U CUMULATIVE  = 59  - 54  .522

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  4 - 1     CUMULATIVE  =  43 - 36 - 1  .544

GAME OF THE WEEK   9 – 7       LOCK OF THE WEEK    8 – 8

UPSET SPECIAL     8 - 8              O/U OF THE WEEK    10 – 6

STEELERS. 8 - 7 - 1   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  102  - 90 .531

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE--Especially my MAGA friends, who I hope will always be my friends...

We had our best week of the year, last week, and we are crushing every other handicapper on the ‘Net...

GAME OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia Eagles  @ Buffalo Bills  Pick  45. GW  [O]

Possible Super Bowl preview this Sunday in upstate New York.  The Bills have the superior offense; the Bald Birds have the superior defense.

Sean McDermott and Josh Allen are a better duo than Nick Siriani and Jalen Hurts--then, again the Eagles are the reigning world champs...

Well, it is a Pick ‘Em game--I’ll take Buffalo at home-- and the Over.

Bills  26  

Eagles  23

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions  @ Minnesota Vikings   +5.5. 44.5   LW  [O]

We locked in this line very early and since it has swelled to +7.5 to the Norsemen, we’re calling this our Lock of the Week.

It doesn’t hurt that Minnesota will be starting rookie QB Max Brosmer, in for J.J. McCarthy--he has yet to do anything more than play like a rookie who spent four years at the helm for the New Hampshire Wildcats.

Another edge the Jungle Kings bring to this matchup is Dan Campbell’s top six rankings in divisional games and after a loss.

Locked and loaded...Play the Over; Detroit’s defense is as bad as their offense is excellent..

Lions  27

Vikings 19

UPSET SPECIAL

New England Patriots  @ New York Jets  +13.5  43.5  US [U]

There is not a legit Upset Special on this very lame Week Sixteen slate...

Divisional game, late in the year.  I am loathe to take the Favorite with a double digit Spread.  

Mike Vrabel sure looks like an NFL HC, doesn’t he?   The former Titans coach and Steelers linebacker, hopefully, has flipped the cheating Belichick culture that taints New England’s history.

Yeah, it's still F@#K BELICHICK!

Vrabel is my favorite NFL head coach; his team has played more consistent quality football with each passing week and has earned a playoff berth, but the Pats schedule is the second easiest this year and the tenth easiest in NFL history.

We all know any NFL opponent is tough to beat, but the Pats have only played five quality opponents.  (I don’t count Carolina who was struggling mightily earlier in the season.)

NE lost to the Steelers, split the division games with Buffalo; beat Atlanta and Tampa Bay, the “best” two teams in the dreadful NFC South.

We’re hoping the Jets show some pride, but New England posts a big number regardless--we’ll go with the Over.

Patriots  30

Jets  13

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens  @ Green Bay Packers  -2.5. 40.5   O/U

Ravens fans were cawing for John Harbaugh’s head after last week’s 28-24 loss to the Patriots..

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that however the 2025 campaign ends for this Murder of Crows, we’ll find out Lamar Jackson, and the entire Baltimore organization, was hiding an injury affecting the two-time MVP’s usual excellence more than we were led to believe.

Of course my readers know I often opine that Harbaugh has “the most punchable face in America.”---that doesn’t mean he’s a bad football coach.  In fact, his record says another Super Bowl appearance stamps his ticket to Canton.

I don’t think that’s in the cards this year.  The Magpies defense falls short of their standard, and they have looked simply, offensively “off” this year--and Lamar Jackson is hiding something.

Meanwhile in Green Bay, the Packers are coming off an OT loss to division rival Chicago which may end up relegating the Meat Men to Wild Card status for the post-season.

Green Bay needs this game every bit as much as Baltimore--but it’s hard to win at Lambeau, with the injuries Baltimore is nursing and the Packers uber-motivated to win,

No matter what the Magpies do at Lambeau, if Pittsburgh defeats the Browns, they win the division Both teams are out of WC consideration--it's win the division or go home.

Pittsburgh has its own fate--and the Rat Birds'--in their hands

A Steeler fan like me, can receive no better Christmas gift--can Pittsburgh deliver it?

We’re laying the Chalk and calling the Over...

Packers 29

Ravens 26

STEELERS GAME

Pittsburgh Steelers  @ Cleveland Browns  +3  34.5   [O]

Don’t want to hear any pundit-crap about “trap games” or injuries.

To frustrated Steelers fans, it boils down to this:  If this Steelers team, with an elite coach and HOF QB, cannot soundly beat a Cleveland team with a busted OL, a rookie QB, and a HC seated on the front burner, butt-cheeks turning red, then they deserve all the vitriol Steeler Nation dishes out.

Mike Tomlin is a coaching genie.  He has taken teams that should have been 5-12 to the playoffs; players revere him; his message still resonates, Art Deuce trusts him, and Coach Tomlin is a first ballot HOFer.  But if his 2025 squad can’t make a statement, starting this week with a healthy A-A-Ron Rodgers and a vastly improving rush defense and secondary, T.J. Watt’s return to action, and a recently formidable running game--then perhaps my analysis of Tomlin is off-base.

I think the Men of Steel can run on the Browns--not as successfully as they ran on Detroit--but they should be able to control the pace of play.

The elephant in Acrisure Stadium is, of course, the soon-to-be-named NFL DPOY, Myles Garret, who will be scrapping with Steelers new LT, Dylan Cook, as the Browns Bomber seeks to break T.J. Watt's single-season record for sacks.  If Pittsburgh lets Garret take over the game, all bets are off.

Give the Browns a field goal and bet the Over..

Steelers. 26

Lions 17

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...

(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)

NFL WEEK 17 ODDS POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS 

Dallas Cowboys  @ Washington Commanders  +5.5.  50.5   [O]

Detroit Lions  @ Minnesota Vikings   +5.5. 44.5   LW  [O]

Denver Broncos  @ Kansas City Chiefs  +13  37.5 [U] 

Houston Texans  @ Los Angeles Chargers  -1.5. 39.5 

Baltimore Ravens  @ Green Bay Packers  -2.5. 40.5   O/U

Seattle Seahawks  @ Carolina Panthers  +7  42.5   

Arizona Cardinals  @ Cincinnati Bengals  -7  53.5 

Pittsburgh Steelers  @ Cleveland Browns  +4.5  34.5   [O]

Jacksonville Jaguars  @ Indianapolis Colts  + 6.5  46.5 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  @ Miami Dolphins  +5.5  46.5 

New England Patriots  @ New York Jets  +13.5  43.5 US  [O]

New Orleans Saints  @ Tennessee Titans  +2.5  39.5 

New York Giants  @ Las Vegas Raiders  +1.5  42.5 

Philadelphia Eagles  @ Buffalo Bills  P  45. GW  [O]

Chicago Bears  @ San Francisco 49ers  -3  50.5. [U]

Los Angeles Rams  @ Atlanta Falcons  +8.5   49.5. [U]