• Gary Porpora

WEEK THREE ATS PICKS


NFL 2020 WEEK THREE

GAME OF THE WEEK


We knew we'd fall back down to earth this week--but we had another gonzo week on our Specials and Totals...


2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK TWO

WEEK TWO ATS – 8-8 2020 Overall ATS 20 – 12 .625

Cumulative Totals: 4 – 1

Weekly Specials 3 – 1 Cumulative Specials: 7 - 1

GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 0 LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 0

UPSET SPECIAL 1 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 2 – 0

PREMIUM PICKS 7-2 CUMULATIVE 15 -3


K.C. CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5 54 [O]


The two most prominent faces of the NFL face off at Baltimore in front of a throng rumored to be all of 25 people.


So much for home field advantage.


In ten years handicapping the NFL I’ve learned a couple of ironclad rules every bettor should live by:

  • Follow your instincts. More often than not, when you look at a matchup for the first time, and based just on what you know about the two teams for the last 4-5 weeks, you get a feel for who your pick will be—that feeling is correct more often than not…

  • Know your own biases. I’m a Steelers fan. It crushes me to pick against the Pittsburgh or for any team in the AFC North to win. Even a decade in, I always have to check how any team on my Hate list—Dallas, Oakland, N.E, and the AFC North, the AFC, the NFC—is really performing as opposed to how I wished they were.


This matchup was a perfect example. The Chiefs are the world Champs. They out-dueled the Magpies in their two most recent meetings, both in KC, their top-line talent, their “splash players” are more talented than Baltimore’s, albeit not by much…


My initial pick was the Chiefs, given no home crowd for Baltimore; which means no obstacles to Mahomes torturing the Blackbirds all afternoon. Also, I know Andy Reid’s record away from home is second best in the league.


That could have been an easy pick, had I only followed my instincts. When I checked my biases, I had to rethink the pick


As home favorites, in John Harbaugh’s 14th campaign, his Ravens have lost only 19 games at M& Bank stadium, second best in the NFL. I also learned the Arrowheads top two ranking as SU Road Dogs is good only for a .500 record; ATS K.C. plummets to 20th “best Road Dog.


Now I’m seriously rethinking this baby. Let’s dip into the stats. Baltimore surrenders 9 less PPG and 115 yards less per game than the Chiefs—and they gain over a half a yard more on offense (.7).


In fact, in the most important game stats, the Magpies are the superior football team.

Kansas City fans could argue—and they would be correct—a two-week sample is way to small to lean on…


This handicapper is betting when the next six games have been played the gaps won’t be significantly different.


Reid and Mahomes will keep it close—but not close enough. Take the OVER.


Ravens 37 Chiefs 30

LOCK OF THE WEEK


DETROIT LIONS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -5.5 55.5 [U]


You can handicap hundreds of NFL games and never see a trend sheet that bodes as horribly for Detroit, or any team, as this one does—courtesy of OddsShark.com:


· Detroit is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.

· The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games.

· Detroit is 0-10 SU in their last 10 games.

· Detroit is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Arizona.

· Detroit is 2-7-1 SU in their last 10 games against Arizona.

· Detroit is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

· Detroit is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Arizona.

· Detroit is 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference.

· Detroit is 4-10-1 SU in their last 15 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference West division.

What an indictment of Matt Patricia’s tenure as head coach. Another rotten acorn from the Belichick tree of despair—ain’t so easy to win without a library of stolen signals is it, Coach?


We’re not giving this one LOW status because Detroit is so horrible, though they certainly are. Kenny Golloday might return which will spark their offense and Lion’s TE, T.J. Hockenson could exploit a young line backing corps for the Red Birds. But that may just be wishful thinking.


The most prolific QB/WR duo in the game prowls the desert in the names of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. They’ve sparked Arizona to a Top Ten offense to complement a Top Ten defense, (YPG). Arizona is a scary team because not only are the talented on both sides of the ball, but they are balanced offensively with their new found passing game and a rushing game averaging 170 YPG.


If the Cards can sustain their excellence beyond a paltry two weeks, we might be calling them the favorite to win a division where all four teams consider themselves the favorite.


We’ll go against the public and Vegas and call the UNDER.


Cardinals 30 Lions 23

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ N. E. PATRIOTS -6, 47.5 [O]


The feeling here is Chucky is starting to grin.


For the first time to my eye, the Las Vegas Raiders looked like they were still in the ‘70S the way they manhandled the Saints on Monday Night. They made Drew Breeze look as old as he is, and ran all over what promised to be a stout run-stopping group from the Bayou.


Most of the game, I was wondering when the Raiders were going to buckle—for the last 20 years they always cracked when it came to putting a team away; committing a stupid penalty, or not making that crucial third down stop or game winning first down. They kicked the Holy men in their church bells—especially when they were behind by ten points in the first quarter, and ahead by ten in the fourth.


New England is going to be just fine with Cam Newton under center, and the aforementioned library of stolen signals in Belichick’s Cave of Darkness will always taint his Patriots, but that defense needs to get better if Belichick’s boys want to make a post season run.


Belichick has always smartly treated the first month of the season as if it were the real pre-season—cementing the fundamentals, building the team, playing it close to the vest, shoring up the defense then expanding the playbook.


I doubt the Raiders will manhandle the Pats; they probably won’t win—but Gruden has shown, once he gets his team believing in themselves…Chucky gets that look in the eye….


If Las Vegas doesn’t win outright, they’ll keep this baby close. The OVER is our confident call


Raiders 29 Patriots 27

UPSET SPECIAL


GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 52.5. [O]


Evidently, the Goombahs didn’t watch football Monday night. New Orleans was out gunned, overrun, and out-muscled by Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, and the Raiders.

What do you think Aaron Rodgers—yet to be sacked or throw a pick—and Aaron Jones—the league’s leading rusher—will do to the Saints when they march into the Mercedes Benz Superdome boasting the NFL’s most prolific offense led by a surefire HOFer?


The Pack leads the league with a blistering 7.1 YPP; their defense is better than the one in Vegas and it’s no secret Drew Brees hasn't looked like his young self.


Another ironclad rule applies to this match-up: Always take the hot future HOFer over a cold one in any venue on the planet.


We’re playing the OVER.


Packers 31 Saints 27­


Thurs. 9/24 

Miami at Jacksonville (-3) 49 [O]

Sun 9/27

Chicago @ Atlanta (-2.5) 47.5 

LA Rams @ Buffalo (-2.5) 47

Washington @ Cleveland (-6.5) 45

Tennessee @Minnesota (+1.5) 49

Las Vegas @ New England (-6.5) 47.5 O/U

San Francisco @ NY Giants  (+4.5) 41.5

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia ( -6.5)  46.5

Houston @Pittsburgh (-4) 45

NY Jets @ Indianapolis  (-11) 4

Carolina @ LA Chargers  (-6.5) 43.5

Tampa Bay @ Denver  (+6) 43

Detroit @ Arizona  (-5.5) 55.5 LW [U]

Dallas @ Seattle  (-4.5)

Green Bay @ New Orleans  (-4.5) US [O]

Monday 9/28

Kansas City @ Baltimore  (-3.5) GW 54 [O]

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