NFL WEEK TEN
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU WEEK NINE
WEEK NINE ATS 8 – 6 2020 Overall ATS 68 – 65
Weekly Totals 1 – 5 Cumulative Totals: 24 – 31 – 1
Weekly Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 20 - 18
GAME OF THE WEEK 7 –2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 5
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 6 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 5
PREMIUM PICKS 2 – 8 CUMULATIVE 44 – 49 – 1
WEEK NINE PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-5) @ CHICAGO BEARS (5-4) +2.5 45.5 [O]
If you look at the efficiency stats in this one the Bears are as good defensively as the Viking are offensively. The questions are will Dalvin Cook be able to run on the stout Chicago defense? Will Nick Foles, Mitch Trubisky, or whoever quarterbacks the Bears be able to keep up with the suddenly rolling Norsemen offense?
An offense has to score a minimum of 24 points and a defense must hold their opponents to under 21 points for a legit footbal team to be consistently competitive in the NFL.
Chicago averages 19.8 PPG on offense and surrenders a tick over 21 on defense. Minnesota averages 26 PPG, and in the last two weeks has held opponents to 21 PPG. For the season, that average balloons to 29.2 PPG.
Look at the ripple effect Dalvin Cooks return from injury has had on his team—His typical offensive output takes the pressure off of Kirk Cousins, the O-Line—the entire offense. The defense isn’t tired by the third quarter, and they become more efficient at pressuring the QB.
Chicago’s offensive line has wet the bed, giving up four sacks a game in their last three games. They are next to last or the NFL’s worst in every important rushing stat and are one of the most unbalanced teams in the league, only rushing the ball 33% of the time. Da Bears QBs are under so much pressure, they manage only 5.7 yards per pass play—second worst in the league.
All this says if the Vikings get ahead, it’s not likely Chicago can mount any kind of comeback—Minnesota can. They are first in nearly every important offensive stat gaining the most YPP running or passing.
Minnesota wins going away—I’m playing the Over.
Vikings 30 Bears 22
LOCK OF THE WEEK
HOUSTON TEXANS (2-6) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (5 - 3) -3 54 LW [U]
This is one tight week, folks—no Upsets or Locks jump at you and handicappers can make good arguments to transmogrify Locks into Upsets and vice a versa.
This week, the punditry is trying to wrestle out a winning argument for DeShaun Watson and the Texans covering against the Browns. I’m just not buying it.
Like Chicago on offense, Houston’s defense is no better than 29th in every significant defensive metric we apply. The resulting ripple makes Watson feel like he has to carry the team on his back—usually, that burden morphs into an albatross. It also explains why the Texans can average 6.2 YPP—the NFl’s fifth best—yet possess the ball only 27 minutes per game.
The puzzle reveals an image of mediocrity when you learn the ShitKickers scrape the bottom of the NFL barrel as a rushing team. They rely almost exclusively on Watson to win games—now we know why the former Florida stand out appears to be inconsistent, sloppy, and careless with the ball. Put Watson behind the Colts or Steelers O-line; he might become a superstar after one game.
Football is the quintessential team sport. Weak links can only be minimized, never completely hidden.
The Browns will welcome cold 25 MPH winds; Houston, not so much.
Kevin Stefanski and his crew should plan on pounding the ball through the heart of the Texans, and if that doesn’t work---pound it harder.
Cleveland should win this one easily—We revel in being contrary—Bet the Under.
Browns 29 Texans 17
UPSET SPECIAL
BUFFALO BILLS (6-2) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-1) -3 56.5 [U]
Full disclosure, I’m not high on this pick, or my Under call. This matchup was the only possible Upset on my slate after doing the preliminary picks, stewing on them during research and then relying on my gut.
We call it a wash between Kyler Murray and Josh Allen, and give Sean McVay a very slight edge over Coach Kingsbury.
Buffalo checks the strength of schedule box. Their only big loss was to the Titans in Nashville; they have five quality wins if you define a quality opponent as one who is in playoff contention. Their other loss was against KC. The Cards eked out a win against the Gulls and lost a field goal game to Miami last week. They also lost to Carolina and Detroit.
Arizona is the NFL’s third stingiest Red Zone defense—you think we can link that to their schedule?
In the last 2+ years Arizona has a 1-5 record SU as a Home Favorite—ATS they vault to fifth best in the league.
Basically, we have two evenly matched teams. I’m going with Buffalo because it’s my best shot for an Upset—Bills win outright, Under the Total.
Bills 27 Cardinals 24
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-4-1) @ NEW YORK GIANTS (5-2) +3 44 [O]
All year we’ve noted the Eagles M*A*S*H* unit injury report and the ripple effects of losing three of the best offensive skill players and a stud lineman. Losing elite talent can make every week a pressure cooker, especially for a gunslinger like Carson Wentz.
The defense that was projected to be one of the NFL’s best feels the pressure too. Every series becomes more important; every mistake magnified.
With WR, Alshon Jefferey, returning from a sore foot, RB Miles Sanders from a knee, and guard, Nate Herbig returning after a finger issue-Wentz will be almost giddy to take the field with a full complement of elite players he can depend on. The Philly defense gets stud corner Darius Slay back.
The G-Men have a league high fifteen people on IR, a first year QB still finding his feet—and no Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones will welcome back wide out, Sterling Shepard to the offense, but he won’t be enough.
If the Giants can exploit the putrid Eagles pass blocking O-Line, New York can force Wentz into mistakes—only to watch his Bald Birds take advantage of an almost equally bad Giants O-line and make the day very long for Daniel Jones.
I think the Eagles can smell the stench of their own division and have convinced themselves they smell a division title.
Philly wins—Over the Number.
Eagles 30 Giants 22
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My picks are below in bold italic…
Thursday, Nov. 12
Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2.5 50) [O]
Sunday Nov. 15
Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions (-3.5 46.5)
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns (-3 49) LW
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers (-11 53)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (+3 44) O/U
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (+6 49.5)
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5 56) US [U]
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5 51)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5 48.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7 47.5)
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (-9 51)
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (-1.5 55.5)
8:20 p.m. ET – Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (+7 41.5) [O]
Monday Nov. 16
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+2.5 44.5) GW [O]