• Gary Porpora

WEEK SEVEN - NFL PICKS ATS

NFL WEEK SEVEN

2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU WEEK SIX

WEEK SIX ATS 6 – 8 2020 Overall ATS 48 – 43

Weekly Totals 4 – 2 Cumulative Totals: 19 – 16– 1

Weekly Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 15 - 11

GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 0 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 3

UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 4 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 – 3

PREMIUM PICKS 5 – 5 CUMULATIVE 34 – 27 – 1

GAME OF THE WEEK

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-0) @ TENNESSEE TITANS (5 -0) -3.5 50.5 GW [U]

Ryan Tannehill has the football world convinced he a legit franchise QB in the NFL. He might be, but his NFL journey proves how floundering quarterbacks can show their true colors when they finally play behind a solid offensive line, a competent receiving corps and a defense that can stop people when it has to.

Ben Roethlisberger has been great from day one; he’s performed behind barely serviceable offensive lines, seriously flawed defenses, and WR’s who turned into prima donnas. Big Ben has the Steelers with the tenth best 3rd down conversion percentage; the Titans defense is dead last in allowing 3rd down conversions…Advantage: Steelers…

Tennessee and Pittsburgh are blessed with good coaching and the edge there goes to Mike Vrabel given last year’s playoff run—although we hope his flaunting the rules during Covid restrictions doesn’t mean he will be a serial Cheater like his former coach, Bill Belichick. For now we’ll allow Coach Vrabel the benefit of the doubt...For now…

Defensively, the Steelers are the far superior team—and the Titans are better at running the ball. But even without Devin Bush, Pittsburgh will bottle Derek Henry up and dare Tannehill to beat them—I don’t think he can. Remember, the Titans won’t have all-world left tackle Taylor Lewan to plow the Steelers defensive front and make holes for 250 pounds of Derek Henry.

You want to ponder some trends?

· Since 2015 Pittsburgh wins at the highest percentage ATS in the league as a Road Dog (70.6)

Before fans of either team reserve a bungalow in Miami for this years Super bowl consider the following: Pittsburgh or Tennessee might not be nearly as good as you think they are…

· 9-20 = Titans opponents’ cumulative record in 2020. Their only quality win was a 42-16 ass kicking, at home, against Buffalo…

· 10-20-1 = Steelers opponents’ 2020 record--they thrashed the Browns last week and the Eagles two Sundays ago…

We don’t know how good or bad either of these teams are. My wager is, both are pretty good; this might not be their only tussle in 2020. Then again, it’s a strange year, promising only to become stranger with each passing day.

When your matchup is this close, the smart bettor goes with the better QB, the stronger defense, and takes whatever points the Bookies offer.

Take the Steelers and the Under.

Steelers 30 Titans 20

LOCK OF THE WEEK


GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-1) @ HOUSTON TEXANS (4-1) +2.5 53.5 [O]

This puppy was earmarked for the Lock of the Week on Monday. Then your resident handicapper realized he heard Aaron Rodgers injured his knee at practice. Uh, oh…

After a little due diligence and gathering the correct info--it was Aaron Jones who got hurt--this game, soon thereafter became the LOW all over again.

Yes, I know, the Packers were supposed to upset Tampa last week and got smothered by the upstart Mateys defense—the Goombahs are still raking in the cash off that one.

Green Bay couldn’t have drawn a more ideal opponent for a recovery win Rodgers has made a living from in his 14-year career. The Texans are the AFC’s wobbliest team—and Romeo Crennel hasn’t shown he can steady any such ship. Houston’s defense has been exploited the entire year. Their offense will keep them in a lot of games with the emergence of Will Fuller as DeShaun Watson’s favorite target—but Watson will become more vulnerable unless Crennel can revive a rushing attack scraping the bottom of the NFL barrel, (31st), gaining only 86 YPG

We found these trends that back-up our analysis.

· Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.

· Houston is 0-6 SU and ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog.

· The OVER is 5-2 in each team’s last 7 games.


Crennel is the only interim head coach to win his debut for more than one team, and is now the oldest coach to win an NFL game. Nice little milestones in one of the most successful NFL careers for one of the truly great guys in the game.


Too bad Crennel or his career will never be able to keep Texans fans from asking:

What the hell was Bill O’Brien thinking?

Take Green Bay and get ready for a shootout Over the Total.

Packers 36 Texans 27

UPSET SPECIAL

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS -10.5 [55] [U]

The Broncos in any number of years since 2003 are consistently a top ten performer as a Home Dog.

The Chiefs are coming off a Monday Night win against Buffalo, but this is a division game.

Since I nabbed this spread when the line opened, I feel like I’m getting a steal—of course we could be looking at another KC blowout but we’ll see.

Honestly people, this was a hunch at the 10.5 mark and I’m playing it through to the bitter end…

Chiefs 32 Broncos 22

As usual, my picks are in bold italic...


Thursday Oct. 22 8:20 p.m. New York Giants @ Philadelphia -4.5 45 O/U


Sunday Oct. 25 1 p.m.

Detroit @ Atlanta -2.5 56

Cleveland @ Cincinnati -3.5 50.5

Green Bay @ Houston -3.5 57 LW [O]

Carolina @ New Orleans -7.5 51.5

Buffalo @ New York Jets +12 45

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee -2 50.5 GW [U]

Dallas @ Washington -1 46

4:00p.m. Games

Tampa Bay @ Las Vegas +4 53 [U]

Kansas City @ Denver +10.5 46 [U] US

Jacksonville @ Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 49

San Francisco @ New England -2 43.5

SNF

Seattle @ Arizona +3.5 56

Monday Oct. 26

Chicago @ Los Angeles Rams -6 45 [U]

Bye: Baltimore Indianapolis Miami Minnesota

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