WEEK ONE 2025 PICKS - ATS
- Gary Porpora
- Sep 6
- 8 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
2024 SUPER BOWL & CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS = 2 - 1
2024 PLAYOFF RECORD = 7 - 6.
2024 OVERALL. = 157 - 122 - 5 .563
O/U CUMULATIVE = 84 - 57 .596
WEEKLY SPECIALS CUMULATIVE = 60 - 35 - 3 .632
GAME OF THE WEEK 10 – 12 LOCK OF THE WEEK 13 – 5 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 10– 8 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 14 - 6
STEELERS 13 - 4
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 144 - 92 - 3 .611
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WEEK ONE 2025
My final tally sheet for the 2024-2025 NFL season, including the post-season, is better than most of the ‘Cappers at cbssports.com, the Athletic.com, and the Sportingnews.com.
A quick review of the Gairzo’s philosophy...
The truncated NFL preseason means teams have less time to evaluate talent, devise and implement game plans, and develop team cohesion, which is more important in footballl than any team sport. Therefore, the first four weeks of the season, essentially, are an extension of the pre-season. These disclaimers are exacerbated for teams with new head coaches, coordinators, and or QBs/skill position players.
A quick review of Week One's two weeknight games proves the point.
Dallas looked just a tad off on both sides of the ball with new HC, Brian Schotenheimer and two new, albeit experienced coordinators.
Note how Philly adjusted better after halftime and the weather delay.
On Friday, both. The Bolts and Chiefs looked in mid-season form with head coaches who have won championships and/or played in big games. Yes, The Bolts have a new offensive coordinator--but he was Harbaugh’s guy at Michigan--and new DC, Greg Roman is a heavyweight in the NFL’s pantheon of DCs.
In short, the more a team changes from the GM to the Strength coach, the longer the period of adjustment for the players to perform at peak level.
Ergo, in September, this “Capper has a lot more to look at before he’s confident enough to put a 25.00 unit into a pick(s).
Early in the season we lean to the Under on our Totals calls. Defenses are more vanilla than Nabisco’s wafers--they’ll be attacking their opponents more intensely and often.
Offenses, also bland, have to clear the cobwebs until they meld as a unit.
In low Spread games or pick-em contests, we usually go with the better or more successful QB and HC.
SOURCES AND METHODS
I usually try to credit my favorite websites, podcasts, or radio and TV shows when I cite trends and stats. (Much of the same info is available on multiple outlets.)
To me, the best guy out there is Steve Makinen at VSIN.com--He’s got a database the size of Saturn...
I don’t agree with him much of the time, and last year, my Premium Picks--my Five Specials and non-Sun-Day games and their designated O/U picks--were more accurate and profitable than his “Best Bets.”
Anyone can have a good year--the pros like Makinen string together handfuls, then have one down year, or two.
Finally, my Spreads are taken from various sources until I lock them in at 8:00PM the day before the game(s)--unless there is a huge change in game conditions, personnel, or other anomalies.
Let’s get into the Week One games and see if we can repeat our 2024 excellence--(he said modestly)...
NFL 2025 - WEEK ONE
GAME OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (+1.5) 51.5 [U] GW
Baltimore is the AFC’s gold standard but we like the Bills in this one because because Josh Allen would be my pick over Lamar Jackson--and we think this spread is a value pick.
Allen has taken lesser talent further than Jackson has taken superior talent--and, the spread on this one has seen each team be favored by 1.5. As of this writing, the Magpies are a 1.5 Favorite. I locked this line in with Buffalo as a Home Dog, and I’m sticking with that play.
Mr. Makinen at VSIN.com offers these two gems:
The Bills are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in the BAL-BUF head-to-head series since 1999.
Buffalo’s Sean McDermott boasts a 15-3 SU and ATS record as a short favorite of less than 3 points since 2017. (The Bills won the most recent contest, 27-25 at home this past postseason...
Remember, trends and stats are simply "tools" Cappers use to make intelligent wagers--in my world, I don’t use them to "justify" any pick...
I read. I listen. I go with my gut. Anyone else’s take seldom changes my thinking.
Take the Bills and the Chalk--bet the Under.
Bills 26
Ravens 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Arizona Cardinals (@ New Orleans Saints (+6) 42.5 LW. [U]
The Saints are facing a difficult year with too many unanswered questions to be a solid bet against anyone.
The Red Birds see themselves as legitimate contenders in the always-tight NFC West. We agree.
This spread should be 1.5 To 2 points higher--we’re playing the Under.
Cardinals 31
Saints 10
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5) 46.5 O/U
1-11...
...The Bengals record in the first two weeks of the season under Head Coach, Zachary Taylor.
His early September Bengals are the NFL’s version of the living dead.
We’ve already discussed the steaming mess laying on Cleveland’s chest because they tabbed a zombie, namely Joe Flacco as their starting QB. Okay that’s a tad harsh, and an example of torturing a metaphor, sorry.
Flacco is experienced enough to find a way to make his way through Cincy’s soulless defense--with Al Golden as the new DC, and an unhappy, underpaid Trey Hendrickson, among others--and Cleveland’s Myles Garret has the skills to eat Joe Burrow’s face.
Alright, I’m done... Cincy wins, the Brownies Cover.
Bengals 31
Browns 27
UPSET SPECIAL
Detroit Lions (+2.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5) 49 US
After almost 70 years of ineptitude, the Detroit Lions have put together two consecutive playoff years. Last year, the Commandoes as 8.5 Dogs ruined Detroit’s Super Bowl dreams with a convincing 45-31 Divisional Round whipping.
I guess that’s why Vegas is disrespecting them in this one. The Packers should be the 2.5 Underdogs--not the Lions.
Don’t get me wrong, these Packers are loaded with an elite QB in Jordan Love, solid play in the trenches, and and stud secondary--but injuries could play a factor as Love and All-Galaxy edge rusher, and new arrival, Micah Parsons appeared on the injury sheet this week.
Once again, these early-in-the-year injuries can go either way. Non-serious and due to lack of pre-season reps, or a harbinger of bad things to come. One of the many reasons Week One is difficult to handicap.
Add to that, the Lions are at least Green Bay’s equal in almost every facet of the game.
Their running game and secondary is better. This should be a classic.
Check out these trends:
DETROIT is 47-20-1 ATS (70.1%) overall since 2021
DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 10-10 SU and 17-3 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 16-5 SU and 16-4-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
GREEN BAY is 20-15-1 ATS (57.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
GREEN BAY is 91-20 SU and 70-39 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 18-13 SU but 11-20 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
We don’t like the injury reports out of Green Bay, and we think Dan Campbell will find a way to win a squeaker outright.
Lions 31
Packers 30
STEELERS GAME
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+3) 38.5. [O]
This should be a Steeler blow out.
The Jets cleaned house--new GM and New Head coach--but their real problem is owner, Woody Johnson, who didn’t make the necessary deals with his two talented CBs--Sauce Gardner and Brandon Stephens.
The Airplanes did sign Justin Fields after Pittsburgh decided he wasn’t what they wanted him to be--and that has me terrified.
Why? Last year, this was my take on Aaron Rodgers:
The Jets are a 4-10 football team who had visions of being more like 10-4. They are a rusting wreck of a football team under a coach who is in over his head--or the players don’t know who the coach, GM, or owner really is...
Probably because they stupidly signed first ballot HOFer, and perennial nominee for Jag-Off of the Year in A-A-Ron Rogers.
Frankly, I can’t stand to look at the guy or hear him talk--he oozes smugness the way a rotten grapefruit oozes pulp.
It’s always the greatest of pleasures rooting against him.
Contrast that subtle, understated, opinion with my thinking that Justin Fields was never given a fair shot in the ‘Burgh, that the Steelers brass would rue the day they let him go because he has the tools to compete at the highest level...
Never has a guy who believes he is correct more than most people think he is, wished more fervently that he is wrong--on both counts.
Frankly, I think all the “revenge” talk about either QB is overblown, but, I’ll tell you, after watching Fields conducting a press conference, you gotta love the way the guy carries himself--he sounds like a champion, anyway.
In Pittsburgh, I’ve been waiting for the inane beachcomber, rebel, vibe to seep from Rogers self-satisfied mug. Waiting for the “I’m already a HOFer, so screw Will Howard and Mason Rudolph...” attitude, but Rodgers refuses to cooperate.
Seems everyone loves A-A-Ron!
It’s so frustrating. I hate when a guy who I believed was a HOF asshole reveals himself to be a cool dude--and, let’s not forget, the guy had the good taste to date this incredible beauty:
By every press account that quotes his teammates, Rodgers has shown remarkable leadership skills. He can still move well, and flick a football 40 yards with pinpoint accuracy.
OH YEAH...THE GAME
Don’t look at me.
Week One...
First time in history two QBs face off against their former teams to start a season...
One Franchise, elite, 3rd best with 35 playoff wins since the merger, the other, with 14 wins--3rd from the bottom...
Pittsburgh with one of the most stable franchises in sports...The Jets, in constant turbulence...
The Steelers, with their third consecutive HOF coach; New York’s Weeb Ewbank is the Jets lone HOF coach, leading the team to its only Super Bowl, 56 years ago.
Mr. Rodger's has more quality talent in his neighborhood, on paper. His Steelers have the better roster; their defense could be historic--according to Mike Tomlin.
I’m passing on this game and recommend you do too--but the Under should be a solid play.
Steelers 23
Jets 16
As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK ONE ODDS: POINT SPREADS - TOTALS
Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7) 46.5. [U]
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 46. [U]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (+1) 47.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5) 46.5 O/U
Miami Dolphins (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) 46.5.
Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) 46.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) @ New England Patriots (-3) 42.5
Arizona Cardinals (-6) @ New Orleans Saints (+6) 42.5. LW [U]
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) @ New York Jets (+2.) 38.5. [O]
New York Giants (+5.5) @ Washington Commanders (-5.5) 45.5
Tennessee Titans (+7.5) @ Denver Broncos (-7.5) 41.5
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) 45.5.
Detroit Lions (+2.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5) 49.5. US. [O]
Houston Texans (+3) @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) 44.5. O/U
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Buffalo Bills (+1.5) 51.5 GW [U]
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears (+1.5) 43.5 [U]
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