- Gary Porpora
WEEK NINE 2020
NFL WEEK NINE
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU WEEK EIGHT
WEEK SIX ATS 5 – 9 2020 Overall ATS 60 – 59
Weekly Totals 4 – 3 Cumulative Totals: 25 – 24 – 1
Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 19 - 15
GAME OF THE WEEK 7 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 6 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 4
PREMIUM PICKS 6 – 5 CUMULATIVE 44 – 39 – 1
WEEK NINE PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-2) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-2) -4 51.5 [O]
Tampa Bays worst loss of the year came in Week One against these same Holy men—a team scoring just a tick below 30 points a game, even with stud WR Michael Thomas injured most of the year. New Orleans has weapons at every offensive level, led by one of the best of all time in Drew Brees.
In the last three years Tampa has won only one game ATS against the Saints—but guess who wasn’t playing QB…That’s right, Tom Brady who annually competes with Magpies head coach, John Harbaugh for having the “most punchable face in America.”
Brady breaks some of his own cheating aided records every week. He and Brees take turns breaking still more records. Tommy Boy was no dummy; he made sure his new team had a great offensive line. Their superb pass protection has given him the best sack pct. mark in he league at 3.13% and PFF’s second rated pass blocking line. The Saints aren’t that far behind.
Neither team has a stout rushing attack, though the Saints have a true game breaker in Alvin Kamara. These two all-time great QBs have to be so productive passing the ball because their running games are mediocre—and their rush defenses are consistently dominant.
(Tampa is best in the league defending the run; the Saints are hot on their tail at #3.)
Tom Brady will have to depend on his arm and the hands of Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans if the Mateys are to prevail—poor guy.
For the Holy Men, Michael Thomas, and Kamara are over nagging injuries.
There might be a couple fat juicy fifty burgers on the scoreboard when this one is over.
We’re taking the Brady Bunch to Cover the Chalk—way over the Number
Buccaneers 38 Saints 33
LOCK OF THE WEEK
MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-3) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (5 - 2) -4.5 48 LW [U]
The Dolphins QBed by Tua Tagovailoa venture into the world’s largest toaster oven to meet Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
Call me crazy, but I’m not in love with Tua like a lot of people are—and Kliff Kingsbury and Murray have gained the most offensive yards in the league, and are second on the ground at 160.7 YPG. There is no way Tua can out gun Murray, and I don’t think Miami can stop the Cardinal running game—even if Miami’s defense is definitely much improved.
(They shellacked he Big Horns last week, but once you get Jared Goff off his game, the Rams offense withers quickly.)
Tua has to prove he is more than just a unique name. I don’t think his time will come this week.
My only concern is, what if the Dolphins struggle and Fitzmagic pulls the game out of a rabbit’s ass?
I’ll give the Fish the 4.5, and take the Cardinals and the Under.
Cardinals 30 Dolphins 17
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-1) @ BUFFALO BILLS (6-2) -3 54 [U]
I’ve watched a ton of Seahawks football this year and Russell Wilson has won 3-4 games dropping passes into tiny buckets, scrambling for 15 yard first downs, and throwing the long ball with uncanny accuracy.
How long can the guy keep it up?
Every trend, most every stat, and all the punditry I’ve listened to this week have dismissed the Bills and taken the Seahawks. The Hawks stables of rushers are all injured; Mike Iupati is out for this game. That means it will all be Russell Wilson again—and there s every reason to believe he will lead the Gulls to an easy win.
And that’s exactly why I’m calling for the Bills to win outright—the NFL is never that easy.
Bills 27 Seahawks 24
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
HOUSTON TEXANS (1-5) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (5-2) +6.5. 51.5 [U]
No deep thoughts in this one either folks. Jake Luton, out of Oregon State, all 6’6” of him—now that is one tall Beaver--will start at QB for the Jags. Gardner Minshew is injured. Really, what the hell do the Spotted Cats have to lose? When you’re starting a rookie against DeShaun Jackson—even as consistently inconsistent as he is –it should be a long afternoon.
We think it will be very long for Jacksonville; The Texans are coming off a bye, and a lot of quality talent is returning from injury. Jax’s defense has surrendered a putrid 30 points in each of their last six games, and Doug Marrone told the media he wasn’t going to hold anything back.
This game reminds me of the Buffalo/Seattle matchup—in fact, I changed my pick to Houston after doing the research.
The major difference? Buffalo has a young stud QB in Josh Allen, and the Bills have a shot at hanging around if a shoot out with the Seahawks is necessary.
Luton and the JAX? Not so much. Houston would have to completely fall apart for the Jags to pull off the Upset.
Yeah, I know, anything is possible.
We’ll take the visitors giving up he 6.5; the Under is one of our Premium Plays.
My picks are below in bold italic…
Thursday Nov. 5
Green Bay @ San Francisco -2.5 50.5 8:20 p.m. [U]
Sunday Nov. 8
Denver @ Atlanta -4 50 1 p.m.
Seattle @ Buffalo +3 54 1 p.m. US [U]
Baltimore @ Indianapolis +1 45.5 1 p.m.
Houston @ Jacksonville +7 51.5 1 p.m. O/U
Carolina @ Kansas City -10.5 52.5 1 p.m.
Detroit @ Minnesota -4 53.51 p.m.
Chicago @ Tennessee -4.5 46.5 1 p.m.
New York Giants @ Washington -3 41 1 p.m.
Las Vegas @ Los Angeles Chargers -1 53 4:05 p.m.
Miami @ Arizona -4.5 48 4:25 p.m. LW [O]
Pittsburgh @ Dallas +13.5 41.5 4:25 p.m.
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay -5.5 51.5 8:20 p.m. GW [O]
Monday Nov. 9
New England @ New York Jets +7.5 41 8:15 p.m. [U]
Bye: Cincinnati Cleveland Los Angeles Rams Philadelphia