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  • Gary Porpora

WEEK FIVE 2023 NFL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

Updated: Oct 8, 2023

NFL 2023 - 2023 WEEK FIVE


Here’s where the Gairzo stands Against The Spread as we barrel into the second quarter of the season...


NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK FOUR - 2023 = 9 -7

WEEKLY OVERALL = 31 – 31 - 2 .500

0/U = 4 - 4 O/U CUMULATIVE 15 - 15

SPECIALS 1– 3 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 9 - 7 .563

GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 1

UPSET SPECIAL 1 – 3 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 - 1

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 24 -22 .522


THE STEELERS


Ravens (-3.5) @ Steelers Ravens -205; Steelers +170 40 [O]


Please view the following six minute video. After last week’s painful embarrassment of a football game...The last straw...


Steelers fans use words like “predictable” and “boring” to describe Matt Canada’s offense, but Warren. Sharp offers a truly in-depth analysis--however, Pickett deserves wrath too. To me it is never only the coaches or players. Still, Mr. Sharp is onto something...



Now, after reviewing Sharp’s analysis, another question needs to be asked: What the hell is Art Rooney II waiting for? Again, players deserve a fair share of blame, and the record shows we can, and have, argued Mike Tomlin has taken teams to the playoffs or the brink thereof that had no business being that close--remember Duck Hodges?


Things changed last Tuesday when Tomlin evoked cringes, and embarrassed himself at his weekly presser. PPG columnist, Joe Starkey lays it out for you:



Here’s what I posted on social media:


When your team gets their ass beat to pulp by a rookie coach and rookie QB, ALL a coach should say is--"No excuses we got out-coached and outplayed and the only guy responsible is me...I got to look in the mirror before I ask anyone else to--this is all on me...Next question?" That bullshit Tomlin was slinging flat out stunk; he should be embarrassed...


In another post, the rant continued:


The most disturbing aspect of the loss to the Shit Kickers...This Pittsburgh team was supposed to be legit contender and the defense was supposed to be top five and they looked like amateurs against the same offensive system that San Fran massacred them with--at home--...SAME. F@#KING. SYSTEM, only with less talent, a rookie coach and a pedestrian defense...No Adjustments? No wrinkles? No new answers or new looks?


In my book, that’s abject failure by the head coach--and it doesn’t end there...During his tenure in Pittsburgh, Canada has, as of this writing, not shown a shred of progress...He's lucky I don't own the team--and I'd demand Tomlin to hire a new defensive coordinator and let him -and the new OC--do their job. I'd tell Tomlin to worry about being the head coach--if he still values the job...


Sorry, rant over....


THE PICK

We’ve already covered Tomlin teams success as underdogs and the singular intensity and low scoring closeness in this match up. VSIN.com guru, Steve Makinen, offers these shiny nuggets

  • Underdogs are 14-1-2 ATS in the last 17 games of this Pittsburgh/Baltimore rivalry.

  • Teams heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 50-20-1 ATS since 2013, 71.4%, +28.0 Units, 40% R.O.I., Grade 73).

  • This was 2-1 last week already, and Pittsburgh heads to its bye after this game.

As a Steelers fan, I want someone’s ass for last week’s debacle and lean to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson to absolutely crush Pittsburgh. Steelers defenses have seldom stunk so badly as this wretched crew, and that means I’lll be gagging in the first quarter watching the Crows peck the eyes out of this Pittsburgh run defense.


On the other hand, we have to believe that Tomlin is sick of making excuses for Canada, is, indeed, red-faced at letting his ego run amok and has the entire organization fired up. We hope that’s true--because, given the Magpies cascade of injuries, Clevelands inconsistency and Joe Burrow’s calf, the AFC North is up for grabs.


We don’t want to overreact so early in the season, and history tells us the Steelers very possibly could prevail...But...


The match-up stats tell a horrifying tale E.A. Poe would be proud to tell.

  • Lamar Jackson has a 104.2 QB Rating.

  • Baltimore gains .7 YPP more than the Steelers--and the Crows give up 1.9 less yards per play...

  • Yikes!

Let’s just hope after the Ravens pluck out the rush defense’s eyes, they don’t rip Pittsburgh’s heart out.


Cautiously play the Over...


Ravens 30

Steelers 13


GAME OF THE WEEK


Cowboys @ 49ers (-3.5) Cowboys +142; 49ers -170 45 GW [O]


The Gold Miners are the gold standard of the NFL at the quarter pole of the 2023 campaign, “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy leads all QBs with a 115.2 QBR, a Top Three rushing attack; the most efficient passing game--8.8 YPP--a tenacious defense, and an well-oiled organization, thanking the football gods Brock Purdy has morphed into a 21st century Joe Montana.


The Cowboys are what they have been in the last 25 years--only four post-season wins, a lot of huff and fluff, Jerry Jones, too many TV appearances and the NFL’s most obnoxious fans.


Before I put money on Dallas, they have to prove they are better than they and most of the

misguided football world thinks they are.


Not Sunday Night. I’m calling the Over...


49ers 33

Cowboys 27


LOCK OF THE WEEK


Chiefs (-5.5) @ Vikings Chiefs -190; Vikings +160 52.5 LW


The Chiefs have the superior run game in this contest--Minny has yet to record a rushing TD--and Any Reid will want to control the clock on the ground.


If that doesn’t work, Patrick Mahomes will be throwing against the defense that allows opponent the second highest completion % in the NFL.


The Vikings are terribly ordinary. It usually does’t pay to be ordinary against the defending champs.


Chiefs 31

Vikings 15



UPSET SPECIAL


Bengals (-3.5) @ Cardinals Bengals -175; Cardinals +170 42.5 US


It isn’t just Joe Burrow who is playing through an injury--an/or simply paying badly. The Cincy offensive line was supposed to be decent and trending up, yet they only rush for 70 YPG, second worst in the league.


Of course, this cold be the week when Joe Burrow becomes Joe Burow again and the “Gals rout the Red Birds easily.


I’m betting on the Cardinals to ground out 160 rushing and Cover through the back door.


We’re calling the Under.


Bengals 21

Cardinals 20


OVER/ UNDER OF THE WEEK

Bears @ Commanders (-5.5) Bears +225; Commanders -278 44.5 O/U**



We lost on the outcome, but hit big on one of our specials--a decent start to Week Five...



As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick are below in bold italics...

Here's my tally from Week Four....nothing great but much better than last year:


NFL WEEK 5 ODDS & LINES

DATE SPREAD MONEYLINE OVER/UNDER

THURS. OCT. 5

Bears @ Commanders (-5.5) Bears +225; Commanders -278 44.5 O/U**

SUNDAY. OCT. 8

Jaguars @ Bills (-5.5) Jaguars +200; Bills -245 48 [O]

Titans (2.5) @ Colts Titans -120; Colts +100 42.5

Panthers @ Lions (-9) Panthers +330; Lions -425 43.5

Texans @ Falcons (-1.5) Texans -102; Falcons -118 41

Giants @ Dolphins (-9.5) Giants +340; Dolphins -440 49.5

Ravens (-4.5) @ Steelers Ravens -205; Steelers +170 38 [U]

Saints @ Patriots (-1.5) Saints +100; Patriots -120 39

Eagles (-4) @ Rams Eagles -218; Rams +180 48

Bengals (-3.5) @ Cardinals Bengals -175; Cardinals +170 42.5 US

Jets @ Broncos (-2.5) Jets +124; Broncos -148 42

Chiefs (-5.5) @ Vikings Chiefs -190; Vikings +160 52.5 LW [U]


Cowboys @ 49ers (-2.5) Cowboys +150 49ers - 189 GW [O]


Packers @ Raiders (-2.5) Packers +110 Raiders -130 [U]




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