• Gary Porpora

WEEK ELEVEN - ATS PICKS

Updated: Nov 21

NFL 2022 WEEK TEN – TALLY SHEET

WEEK TEN = 5 – 9 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 74 – 74 – 1

WEEK TEN 0/U 4 – 3 O/U CUMULATIVE 35 – 31 – 1 .530

SPECIALS 2 – 2 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 24 – 15 – 1 .615

GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 5 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 5 – 1

UPSET SPECIAL 9 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 4

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 59 – 46 – 1 .562


WEEK 11 – ATS


Week Eleven has us in a very good place. After a perfect Week Nine canceled out a disastrous start, we see profits—albeit nominal—on our Specials, Totals, and Combined percentages—not overlooking 9-1 on our Weekly Upset Specials.


As always, the only question is: can we sustain success?


GAME OF THE WEEK


Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings 47.5 GW [O]

Last Sunday, the Cowboys looked the part of a Super Bowl Contender until what remains of the Lambeau mystique spooked them, along with a couple of late Aaron Rodgers TD passes, and a timely fourth down stop by the Packers defense that set the Cheese Heads table for the game winning OT field goal.


Once again, 2022, Dallas is singing the same sad, tired song, we’ve been hearing out of Northeast Texas for the last 26 years:


Never As Good As You Think We Are”…


America’s team tryin’ to write their fairy tale story…

We’re only a dusty Texas dream…

Reachin’ for a trophy, always a little to far…


Fading stars looking for lost glory…

Tryin’ to forget our recurring theme…

We’ll always be…Yes, we’ll always be…

Never as good as you think we are…


You can almost hear that syrupy slide guitar twang and picture those two-step red-necks line dancing…


In Minnesota, the Norsemen are trying to change the tune composed by a team supposedly not able to win the big game.


You might think after last week’s bonafide miracle triumph over the Buffalo, that Minnesota melody would be long forgotten.


Vegas has a long memory.


ICYMI, here is a quick recap of the “Bills Bottom Blues” loss to the Vikes last Sunday:


https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2022/11/13/vikings-bills-play-overtime-following-unbelievable-finish-in-regulation/


These two squads have sizable blemishes. The Cowboys rush defense ranks surprisingly low—27th in YPR allowed, 29th in YPG allowed—and the Norsemen don’t run the ball as well as we thought they would with Dalvin Cook.


Dallas will get after Cousins, they are the better sacking defense and allow fewer RZ TDs; Minny is the leagues 2nd worst RZ defense—but, surprisingly Cousins has a better pick percentage than Dak, and a higher QB Rating.


We’re anticipating a shootout, the Cowboys will be left standing—Vikings Cover. Bet the Over.


Cowboys 27

Vikings 26



LOCK OF THE WEEK


Detroit Lions (+3) vs. New York Giants 45 LW [O]


There’s not a legitimate LOW on the Week Eleven Slate. This one seems most probable because in any defensive stat you can name, Detroit’s best ranking is 26th; in the most important defensive stats they are dead last—excepting yards/per rush allowed—where the Lions roar in at 30th.


That means even a below average Giants offense—and considering their Top Five rushing attack—should score at will against what passes for Detroit’s defense.


The Lions rocked on offense in the first four weeks of the’22 season, but have been fading like exhausted lighting bugs since. It’s been worse on the road—and since 2021, the Jungle Kings are a woeful 4-16-1 in outdoor stadia.


The Giants play smart football, boast the NFL’s 6th best TO Margin and are 4th in TOP.


Saquon Barkley should have a productive outing.


Take the points, the G-Men, and the Over—the Lions can score too.


Giants 27

Lions 23




UPSET SPECIAL


Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers 51.5 US [O]


We believe the Arrowheads are clearly the more talented and consistent team in this matchup. However since 2018 the only team to win a game in this series by more than 10 points are the Bolts who logged a 17 point win in the last week of the 2020 season, but KC was playing to stay healthy and had the top playoff spot already locked up.


This is a division game usually won by a field goal. The teams know each other and there won’t be too many surprises.


The Chiefs will be without Mecole Hardman and JJ Smith Schuster.

Woe is poor, poor, Patrick Maholmes who will have to make do with Travis Kelce and

Marquez Valdes-Scantling—although the former Packer is battling an illness.


Justin Herbert will have his three top WRs—Mike Williams, Keenan

Allen, and DeAndre Carter back from the injury list.


We believe this will be a score-fest and the Bolts will pull out the win late.


The Over is our play.


Chargers 33

Chiefs 31




OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Las Vegas Raiders (+3) vs. Denver Broncos 41.5 O/U


Scoring is down, Dogs are winning SU and ATS at record paces because offensive lines are mediocre across the NFL horizon. College RPO offensive schemes require O-Linemen to sustain pass blocks for less time, and running game blocking is leaning towards more Zone than just bowling a defender over. Pass protectors must battle against faster, quicker pass rushers


Defenses have been compelled to “shrink”—in effect, get smaller and quicker to counter 4-5 five wide offenses. Coaches have to put safeties on the field who have added 20-30 pounds trying to make it easier to cover receivers—and account for QBs who can rush for 100+ YPG...


That strategy doesn’t always work, and when it does, even bad offensive lines can run-block 240 pound safeties much easier than 270-310 pound linemen and linebackers


The Broncos have been good to us all year but we switched our pick to the Underdog Raiders because Denver is god-awful offensively, even as they field one of the league’s most formidable defenses.


The Raiders are the worst at getting to the opposition’s QB—Sack %--but Denver is awful, (25th), at protecting Russell Wilson—which is just one reason why he stinks this year.


Experts are fading the Raiders in this baby due to the disappointing year Derek Carr is having. Not sure I agree. As noted, his defense can’t sack groceries and they allow QBs to complete 70.87% of their passes, (32nd). “Secondary? We don’t need no stinkin’ secondary!”


All of the above means, even a flat lousy Denver offense will find some success against the Raider “D”—and given the IR status of TE, Derek Waller, and DaVante Adam’s lingering abdominal injury, the elite Denver defense should have no trouble holding the Silver & Black to 20 points or less—The Wild Horses would be thrilled to score that many…


Raiders 20

Broncos 19



As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated…


NFL WEEK ELEVEN

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers 41 [U]

Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons 49

Carolina Panthers (+13) vs. Baltimore Ravens 41.5

Cleveland Browns (+8) vs. Buffalo Bills 42

Washington Commanders (-3) vs. Houston Texans 41

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts 44

New York Jets (+3) vs. New England Patriots 38

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints 39 LW [U]

Detroit Lions (+3) vs. New York Giants 45

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) vs. Denver Broncos 41.5 O/U

Dallas Cowboys (-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings 47.5 GW [O]

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 41 [U]

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers 51.5 US [O]

San Francisco 49ers (-8) vs. Arizona Cardinals 43.5 [U]





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