TOUGH WEEK TO CALL
Updated: Nov 12, 2019
AFTER WEEK NINE
Week Nine Picks: 7 – 7 2019 Overall Tally: 68 – 65 – 2
Weekly Totals Picks: 4 – 2 Cumulative Totals: 28 – 26 - 1
Weekly Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 16 – 19– 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 4– 5 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 5 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 4 – 5
GAME OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DALLAS COWBOYs -3 47 [O]
It was 3-4 short years ago I was righteously mocking the Cowboys and Jerry Jones for having the state-of-the-art stadium—never letting us forget it was Jerrah’s idea--and one of the poorest records as a home team or home favorite.
Ahem…since 2018, only NE has a better home record.
Okay, a very small sample, but still, Dallas has become consistently dominant at home.
Dallas also has been getting healthier, Leighton Vander Esch is probable after a sprained neck, Amari Cooper is coming off a bruised knee. Factor in, the OL—still racked with a lot of problems—might see tackles La’el Collins and Tyron Smith back. Their return will be huge for Dallas. ***There are conflicting injury reports on Dallas’ O-Line***
· The Vikings are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
· The Cowboys are 8-1 SU in their last 9 home games.
· The Vikings are 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs Dallas.
· The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas' last 5 games against Minnesota.
· Dallas is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home.
· Dallas are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
· Minnesota is 1-9-1 ATS in prime-time games since 2009.
· The Vikings are 2-9-1 both ATS and straight up in Kirk Cousins' starts against teams that entered with winning records (0-7-1 on the road).
· Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is 23-9-1 ATS after a loss.
· Cousins are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in prime-time games on the road in his career.
We can cherry pick trends all day.
The ‘Boys’ arrow is pointing up. Dallas is talented and deep—Eliot rushed for 139 last week with 3 O-Line guys fighting injuries.
Last week, KC bottled up Dalvin Cook; Minnesota will miss WR Adam Thielen.
I can’t trust Cousins in a game this big—and Dallas has been playing well at home.
Take the ‘Boys and the Over.
Cowboys 32 Vikings 27
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -5.5 48 [O]
As the first half of the season unwinds, the games should be easier to pick—yet a 3-5 team like the Chargers marches into Lambeau to be the Packers sacrificial lamb, and walks out with a dominant 26-11 victory. Aaron Rodgers passed for about a buck sixty and was under pressure all day.
The Panthers had won four in a row, trekked out to San Fran, where the Niners shoved an impossible to imagine 51 burger right down the Panther’s’ gullet. Carolina bounced back last week against the Titans, but has lost Cam Newton for the season.
I’m not sure that ‘s a bad thing.
With back up, Kyle Allen, the Panther’s are compelled to become a more balanced, complete team to stay in games—and let their defense finish the job.
Another reason why games in week ten are easier to call than in week one is because every team, every year has to define its psychology; the Panthers are still working on their psyche due to Cam Newton’s mercurial play and attitude.
Since 2014 Green Bay is second only to the Cheaters in winning percentage as a home favorite, and at Lambeau, favored or not. The Pack is also top ten in winning percentage after a loss.
Same time frame, the Black Cats are top five as road dogs and second only to the Cheaters in win percentage after a win.
That means this will be a great game—I have to go with Rogers and the Pack who won’t let another unpredictable team swagger into Lambeau Field and embarrass the home team.
Look for Mike Pettine’s defense to step up and Rodgers to win it late—Over the Number.
Packers 30 Panthers 20
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -11.5 43.5 [O]
It’s always a fun story when a team like Indy, or Pittsburgh, or KC maintains poise and wins with a relatively unknown backup. That story can quickly turn into tragedy when the back up’s back up comes into play.
The Indianapolis Colts are trying to avoid tragedy. Starting QB, Jacoby Brisset, succeeding after Andrew Luck's surprise retirement, has a bad ankle.
Next man up--Bryan Hoyer.
There’s a reason Hoyer has played for eight NFL teams; he’s dependable, smart, and good in the QB room, and sets a good example for his often younger, and higher paid, teammates.
Unfortunately, there’s another reason Hoyer is so well travelled—he’s inconsistent and eventually folds like a dollar-store card table under pressure.
Just the kind of QB a young, hungry, undermanned team like Miami can beat. Then again, maybe not. Last week, the Dolphins saved themselves from the cosmic suck that accompanies a winless NFL season—and quieted the throng who accuses them of "tanking"--because they have played hard for Brian Flores.
Ryan Fitzpatrick—Bryan Hoyer with a beard—has kept Miami in a lot of games they should have lost big.
That’s all I’m looking for this week; play the Over.
Colts 31 Dolphins 22
O/U OF THE WEEK
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -6.5 45 [U]
Russell Wilson is my MVP so far in 2018. With an average offensive line, good but not great wide receivers, the former Badger has thrown 22 TDs with a rating north of 118.
These are two top seven offenses, division rivals and all Seattle has been hearing is how great the Niners defense is—best in the league. Almost every stat split falls into the SF column.
San Francisco should win this game—the public has jumped on the ‘Hawks, but the 6.5 is just too much for me to lay against Seattle.
· Seattle is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against San Francisco.
· Seattle is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against San Francisco.
· Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
· Seattle is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco.
This baby is pure feel. I’m taking Pete Carroll, the “Hawks, and the Under.
Seahawks 24 49ers 20