- Gary Porpora
TNF WEEK TEN
Thursday, Nov. 11
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (+8.5, 48) LW [O]
Lock. Stock. And Barrel.
This line opened at 5.5 and, has since ballooned up to 8.5 as of this writing.
Here are Miami’s Offensive Rankings---and yes they are offensive and they are rank:
· PPG: 28th…
· YPG: 30th…
· POINTS PER PLAY: 29th…
· YARDS PP: 32ND …
· TDs PER GAME: 27TH…
· PPG: 28TH
On the ground fish out of water run better than the Dolphins. Their rushing matchup stats don’t escape the 30s until you get to rushing TDs per game where they rank 28th!
Our friends at Oddssharks.com—the best in the business—add this nail to the already hermetically sealed Dolphins coffin:
Miami has now been held to 20 points or less in five of its last six games and in seven of nine overall this season, largely because of an inability to create big plays. The Dolphins are just the third team in the last 23 seasons to not have a 50-yard pass play or 25-yard run in any of its first nine games.
On defense, it isn‘t a whole lot better.
· Miami is 30th in YPG and passing YPG
· 31st in OPP third down conversion %
The Magpies, on the other hand field an always competitive, upper echelon team, with an excellent coach—even though he still sports the most punchable face in America.
Lamar Jackson is one of the most dynamic, and unique QBs in NFL history—leading the league’s best rushing attack—and his arm, in terms of accuracy and strength is underrated.
Since they were hatched in 1995, The Crows have picked apart teams below .500 at an astounding 13-2 clip playing as a road favorite.
Some pertinent trends:
Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games against Miami.
· Baltimore is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games against Miami.
· The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road.
· Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami.
In my time as a handicapper, I’ve never seen a tighter LOW—which means we’re probably going to witness an upset of biblical proportions
I’m still taking the Magpies and the Under—fate be damned!