- Gary Porpora
TNF WEEK SIX
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Washington Commanders (-1) @ Chicago Bears 38.5 [O]
Okay we’re into the season far enough. Factors such as conditioning, defenses offenses sharpening their execution and/or adjusting to changes in their systems lose their importance to bettors and odds makers.
What gains importance is what you see with your eyes.
Here’s what I’m seeing for this TNF matchup.
The Commanders seem to be throwing jet fuel on their dumpster fire of a season. The Media—both social and conventional—went gonzo when the Commanders signed Carson Wentz. Like most people, I thought Carson Wents had found the perfect coach and system to maximize his potential which was evident prior to his major knee injury in December of 2017.
Then again, that’s what I thought when the Eagles traded him to Frank Reich in Indianapolis.
Sometimes after a major knee blowout, a player never returns to his maximum output. In other words maybe the brain trusts in Indy and D.C. over -valued Wentz or he has plateaued.
In last week’s 21 -17 loss to Tennessee the former North Dakota State star threw for 359, two TDs and a 102.8 rating—but threw a late game pick that cost the Commanders a shot at the win. His career stats reflect a slightly above average QB who needs a couple of star players or a stout running game to maximize his talents.
The problem isn’t all Wentz-although he often makes poor decisions at the worst times--except Ron Rivera had this recent take;
"REPORTER: The Giants, they're off to a faster start. The Eagles, the Cowboys. They've all kind of been rebuilding too the last couple years, and it feels like they're kind of farther ahead. Why do you think the teams in the division are farther ahead at this point?
Rivera later tried to spackle in the context but the hole was already in the wall—proving the Commanders are still a hot mess.
Meanwhile, in Chicago, Matt Eberflus, the head coach 36 year-old GM, Ryan Poles, seems to know it might take a year or two more before Chicago becomes playoff relevant again.
We’re on Chicago in this game; they are the 5th best rushing team n the NFL, Justin Fields is starting to feel comfortable, the defense creates turnovers, and Washington is next to last in the league in Turnover Margin.
Here are some interesting trends:
TNF Home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game have been a brutal bet over the last 3+ seasons, going 15-18 SU and 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%).
Washington is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games (0-4 ATS past 4).
Washington is 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU in its last 9 at Chicago.
Chicago is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 prime-time games.
Take the Home Team Bears and bet the Over—these defenses can be had…
Da Bears 27