• Gary Porpora

TNF WEEK SEVEN 2021

THURS. OCT. 21


DENVER BRONCOS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1.5, 40.5) [O]


Week Seven is going to be a tough week overall, mostly due to odd match ups and spread fluctuation practically all over the board.


You can bet your resident handicapper will be line-hunting Tuesday mornings for the rest of the season.. For example the Total on this game started at 46 and the Under money bet it down to 40.5.


It wasn’t until early injury reports confirmed Mayfield, two of his top O-linemen, a couple receivers, Nick Chubb—best running back north of Derrick Henry—DL Jadaveon Clowney, Malik Jackson, Tight end, David Njoku, all were questionable or out.


That’s a ton of starters missing from a Browns team that had been somewhat of a disappointment when they were healthy.


Denver won it’s first three games of the year, beating teams scraping the bottom of the power rankings. They lost the next three to division rival Vegas, a floundering Steelers team, and were dominated by Baltimore.


Cleveland’s victories against Houston and Chicago were far too difficult and, although they kept it close against KC and the Bolts, they’ve yet to beat a quality team.


With Chubb and Mayfield out along with several other quality starters, I don’t see Case Keenum exploiting a Denver defense and secondary that is supposed to be elite.


And I don’t see a hobbled Teddy Bridgewater stealing the show on a Browns top five defense featuring Myles Garret.


Some important trends:


  • Denver is 11-3 on TNF

  • Denver is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Cleveland.

  • Denver is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against Cleveland.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games on the road.

  • Denver is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland.

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games.

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games against Denver.

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home.

  • Cleveland is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Denver.


I’ll go with the Broncos and the Over—but I’m not wagering a nickel on this game.


Broncos 21

Browns 20

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