• Gary Porpora

TNF WEEK FOUR 2022

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 44 GW


Thursday Nighters are notoriously hard to handicap because many bettor’s first impulse is to fade the visitors because of the short week and travel.


It does make sense—but it just doesn’t hold up when you look at results from the 116 TNF games from 2012 to 2021. Here’s a comprehensive article:


https://www.vsin.com/updated-tnf-snf--mnf-trends-and-systems-for-the-nfl/


What is interesting is how the trends shift seemingly at random.


From the same article:


· Last 17 games, road “TNF” teams coming off a win, are on a brutal 3-14 SU and 3-13-1 ATS (18.8%) slide…

·

· Intraconference (non-divisional) games have gone the way of hosts recently, 10-2 SU and 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in the L12.

·

· Miami four straight SU and ATS losses, outscored 140-37


Before and after the applicable ranges listed, the trends reverse or change significantly the other way.


Any good analysis only looks at trends as tools—the shorter the sample, the less useful a trend is, that’s why we never base a wager on trends alone. To me, the most important factor is the most up to date analysis based on the freshest info you have.


The Dolphins are being touted all over the media as being “for real.” The Fish are getting most of the action and most of the Sharp money due to their big victory over division-rival Buffalo--but Tua is hurting, and still listed as questionable...


Miami’s run defense is mediocre, 20th in the league—their pass defense is flat lousy at 297 YPG and 7.3 allowed per pass. They also have the 6th worse sack percentage…In fact. In every important passing stat, the ‘Phins rank no better than 26th in the NFL.


Cincinnati, meanwhile is trying to shed the curse of the Super Bowl hangover.


I gotta tell you; even as a Pittsburgh fan I love Joe Burrow. Could be because he’s damn near a dead ringer for the lovably stoned, Jim Breuer…


… The man can throw a football and hasn’t gotten flustered by his team’s—it isn’t the same team of a year ago—slow start…


Burrow has a quiet cockiness to his persona that doesn’t put most fans off.


THE PICK


Watch the personal feud between Tyreek Hill and Bengal’s CB, Eli Apple—it could ignite a brawl the way these guys are talking.


Look for the Bengals to use Joe Mixon as a receiver—then in the 4th quarter as a decoy. With Tee Higgins back, Jamarr Chase will get open easier. He should be good for at least two TDs.


On the other hand, Miami’s receiving corps is, according to PFF, third best in the league—a notch behind Cincy’s. Add Tyreek Hill to Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson, and Mike Giseki and any opposing secondary will have their egos bruised badly on just about every given Sunday.


I love what Mike McDaniel has done in South Florida—single-handedly in a few months, changing the culture of a losing franchise in one of its worst eras.


But, Hurricane Ian cut into the Dolphin’s already short week.

With Tua hobbled, no running game and a skanky secondary, it’s the perfect spot for a Dolphin let down after their biggest win in five years.


Lay the Points, bet big on the Over.


Bengals 29


Dolphins 19



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