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  • Gary Porpora

TNF WEEK FIFTEEN - ATS

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3 43 [U]


Home Underdogs are 56.8% ATS in 2022, and ‘Dogs are 55%---those two juicy, yet remarkably consistent trends make picking Seattle to Cover in this divisional rivalry an eminently defensible pick—especially getting 3 points at home.


Consider these nuggets:


  • Away Favorites ATS have won only 43.2 percent of NFL games this year.

  • Since his 2017 hiring as the Gold Miners head coach, Kyle Shanahan’s boys are 9-10 = 47.4% as ATS Road Favorites…

  • … .529 in division games


Pete Carroll’s 12-year stats as HC of the Gulls:


  • .521 in division games…Best in NFC West

  • 14-4 as a Home ‘Dog = .778, Best in the NFL

  • 44-23-3 as an Underdog -= .657, Best in the NFL


Both teams enter this game hobbled, the Niners start 3rd string QB, Brock Purdy—with bruised ribs, no less—at QB, and Shanahan held one practice to rest a team looking at a long post-season run.


The ‘Hawks are playing injured running backs and their defense is pedestrian at best—San Fran has the best defense and one of the elite offenses in football. Purdy played superbly after replacing Jimmy G, last week.


I got to believe Pete Carroll will keep this one close—his team has lost three of its last four—especially against an injured rookie QB and hated division rival.


But the Niners are eons better on both sides of the line and just like most of Seattle’s opponents will exploit a secondary that has been mauled by tight ends all year.


This is a field goal game anyway you crunch the stats and trends…


We’re going with the Prospectors hoping the math favors us at the end. We're calling the Under....


49ers 23

Seahawks 16


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