TNF - WEEK ELEVEN

WEEK ELEVEN TNF

UPSET SPECIAL

ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-3)@ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-3) -3.5 57.5 [O]

Given Vegas has bestowed on this match up, the highest Totals number on the board, you would think this is a game featuring two of the best offensive powers in the NFL—you would be correct. Each of these teams average

· 30+ PPG—Edge: Seahawks

· 406+ YPG—Edge: Cardinals

· 3.6 – 4.1 TDs per game—Edge: Seahawks

· 6.3 YPP—No edge

***The Edges given above are statistically insignificant***

Given that Russell Wilson has been a leading MVP candidate since Week One, you would think Seattle would enjoy a considerable advantage against every opponent—you would be wrong.

Since returning from a Week Six bye, Wilson has been picked more than a coal miner’s nose, tossing 7 INTs against 9 TDs. The “Why?”” doesn’t require a Sherlock Holmes for the answer—Seattle played 3 of the best QB sacking teams in football in the last month. Wilson was Buffaloed by the Bills rush, and rammed by L.A.—hurried more than a salamander on a sidewalk.

When we peruse the defensive stats, there should be no doubt why the Gairzo sees the Hawks as ripe for another reality check. Arizona ranks Top Ten in:

· Scoring Defense (23.3, 9th)

· Red Zone Defense (52% #3)

· 3rd Down Conversion% (39 9th)

· Rushing Touchdowns Allowed per Game (0.6 #1)

The Cards don’t dominate, but they play superb team defense

Did I forget to mention The Hawks give up 448 YPG—despite their 4th ranked run defense, which is misleading—teams don’t find it necessary to run on Seattle.

Tonight, Seattle will miss the 12th Man; DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray have their coming out party, and the Cards stake their claim as Best in the West.

Like everyone and their mother, I’m playing the Over.

Cardinals 33 Seahawks 31