• Gary Porpora

TNF WEEK 14

WEEK FOURTEEN TNF


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-6) @ L.A.RAMS (8-4) -6.5 43 [O]


Bill Belichick, the only coach to be punished three times for cheating to gain a competitive advantage had his group stay in L.A. after last week’s victory in the Arizona Toaster oven, AKA State Farm Stadium.


The infamous coach, no matter, his obsession with cheating, is still great:

  • · His teams are always prepared, (sometimes with opponents stolen play calls)

  • · His teams play sound, hard fundamental football…

  • · He always puts his players in the best position to win…

  • · Routinely devises schemes to minimize the impact of his opponents’ best offensive and defensive players.

Certainly, curating a library of opponent’s signals facilitates all of the above regarding Belichick’s record, and allows us an unfiltered look at the “Patriot Way.”


Even with Jarrod Goff doing his best imitation of Jekyll and Hyde, the Rams are the superior team in every stat split I’ve read.

  • These teams are second, (NE), and ninth in rushing play %.

  • The Rams are averaging 7.3 fewer points per game at home. The Patriots are averaging 6.3 more points per game on the road.

  • Over the last three games, the Rams have allowed a TD on 100% of their opponent’s red zone trips.

  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Rams' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 42.67)

  • The total has gone UNDER in the Patriots' last four games. (Avg combined score: 42.25)

The low scoring lean, the Totals tendencies all favor a below the number play. The Rams defensive deficiency in their recent Red Zone skirmishes is just the kind of soft spot Belichick exploits, and along with these trends—and other stat splits— shows us how sneaky good New England has become in their last four outings, although, The Pats are just 2-4 ATS they’re last six road games:

  • The Patriots are 4-1 SU in their last five games.

  • The Patriots are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games on Thursday.

  • The Patriots are 6-0 SU in their last six games vs the Rams. (Avg winning margin: 15.33)


However, The Big Horns hold these historical hole cards:


  • · The Rams are 6-1 SU in their last seven games at home.

  • · The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at night.


This is the perfect game where the smart handicapper has a ton of relatively dependable stats and trends—in this case L.A. looks to be the far superior team.


We believe the Big Horns will prevail at home and a Moneyline bet might be the better way to go.


But no jet lag, a good running game designed to go straight at Aaron Donald, and a desperate Patriots team trying to stay relevant, tells me New England will keep this one close and Cover the Chalk.


We’ll go against the flow, and with the public and play the Over.


Rams 26 Patriots 23

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