TNF LOCK OF THE WEEK!
NFL 2019 TNF WEEK FOUR
LOCK OF THE WEEK
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -4 45
As my readers know, we’re a fan of Yards Per Play, (YPP), and scoring, on both sides of the ball—along with all the differentials that statistical salad entails--as determinative stats for which of two given teams is “better.”
Usually, that is our basis for judging how accurate we believe the spread is and how to determine which matchup deserve “Specials” consideration.
Let’s see how this Week Four Thursday Nighter fits into my homemade and often not very mathematical algorithms.
The Eagles give up .9 YPP more to their opponents than the Pack, but Green Bay is nearly a half YPP behind Philly on the offensive side of the ball.
When you look into those numbers, though, it becomes clear—given the standing/rankings of each clubs first three opponents--the Pack is giving up less YPP to better offenses and allowing 15 less PPG than Philadelphia to better overall teams.
The icing on that cake of doom has the Bald Birds missing OL Jason Peters and receiver, DeSean Jackson, on offense, and CB Ronald Darby in the secondary.
The Cherry? Carson Wentz has not looked as good, not even close, as he did before his ACL blowout last year.
The worse element of Thursday’s football forecast for Philly is a “sunny and clear” Aaron Rodgers. This is the first week in about two years that the semi-diva Rodgers has been happy—bragging that his uniform has never been as spotless as it was after last week’s 27-16 drubbing of Denver.
Love him or hate him, Rodgers takes a back seat to no QB when it comes to talent—especially when he’s protected.
Here’s some trends courtesy of Oddsshark.com—Nah, look ‘em up yourself.
This is a LOW if there ever was one.
Back the Pack—and we’re going against consensus and taking the Over.
Packers 30 Eagles 17