NFL 2019 TNF WEEK NINE
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALSS +8 44 [O]
GAIRZO’S TNF RECORD = 3-5
The stats and Trend Sheets tell us, as an ATS Home Dog—all Numbers in this analysis are ATS—the Cards are a safe bet, winning at a 62% clip since 2014, significantly out performing the ‘Niners 40% performance as Road Favorites.
Since new coaching regimes and team turnover rates mitigate those numbers over an 80 game span, let’s shorten the time span to 40 games. San Fran is 1-3 as a Road Favorite since 2017…Arizona, 8-6-1 as Home Underdogs.
The Trend becomes a statistical fact—and it’s not the only one we can see in Arizona’s favor:
San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against Arizona.
San Francisco is 0-8 SU in their last 8 games against Arizona.
San Francisco is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against an opponent in the NFC conference.
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.
Arizona is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco.
Trends favoring the Goldminers are much less significant; there are a lot of reasons to pick The Red Birds---but I’m still laying the 8 points and betting big on San Francisco. In fact I think it’s a High Value pick—part of a parlay I’ll discuss in Saturday’s post.
Here’s how I use trends in my breakdowns:
USE COMMON SENSE
Before this year the Niners were struggling to find their identity; their drafts were spotty, young promising players retired, there was internal friction between the GM and ownership, and coaches. Coaches hired to turn around one of the leagues class franchises simply weren’t up to the job
Then, in 2017, they hired John Lynch as GM. Via the draft, he shored up their trench personnel, acquired Jimmy Garopollo; hired HC, Kyle Shanahan—reputed to be a QB whisperer and an offensive guru.
As of this writing, San Fran is the only undefeated team in the NFC.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, the Red Birds struggled in Bruce Arians’ last two years, backslid during Steve Wilks’ disastrous two year tenure and are on pace for a sub .500 year and a high draft pick in 2019.
Knowing just those small snippets about each team, ask yourself, ‘if these two clubs played six, eight, or twelve games as currently constituted—on any day of the week, in any stadium, in any weather, who would win more games?
Arizona would be lucky to win on, two at most. The three teams Arizona has bested this year are worse off than the injury-riddled Cards themselves, who are still adjusting to a very young head coach, a rookie QB, and the reality of playing in football’s toughest division.
That history, that context puts those facts a in a much less meaningful light
Any resulting trends—long or short term—involving these two clubs would be vastly different if their current incarnations were to play three+ years worth of games.
With the supremely talented RB, David Johnson, hurt—when isn’t he hurt—along with backup RB, Chase Edmonds, a rookie QB and head coach, and ancient Larry Fitzgerald as their best WR, the Cardinals simply don’t have the focus, the talent, or scheme to stay within 10 points of a superb 49ers squad.
Despite the “division rivalry rule,” I’ll go against the consensus and take the Over—I think Jimmy G has his breakout game tonight.
Niners 30 Cardinals 16
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