Thursday, September 12
Bills @ Dolphins (-2.5) 49 Bills +115, Dolphins -135
We had our best Week One Tally, ever, sweeping the 4:00 window on Sunday and all three night games. Our strategy was to acknowledge the lack of team cohesion in a seasons first month. Teams simply are not ready to play as units due to the truncated pre-season, this is an even greater pitfall for teams with new head coaches and/or coordinators.
We admit, with division rivals the shortened run-up to Week one doesn’t matter as much in a division game--such rivals know each other well--but as we predicted there were some ugly injuries last week and that might lag over into the next 2-3 weeks until players get into legitimate game shape.
If I were a NFL head coach I would have my guys taking basic yoga classes as part of their off-season programs.
THE GAME
Both of these teams had to claw back from 14 point deficits last week--against supposedly inferior opponents--which bolsters our point early season problems league-wide--only we don’t know if teams are or are not inferior.
All we can do is check out the injury reports--Milano is out for Buffalo; the Fins have no starting running backs and, examine the rosters, then make our guess based on our 10-15 point criteria as taught to us by former Cowboys exec, Gil Brandt.
We’re taking Buffalo, who has had Miami’s number since Josh Allen was drafted to the tune of 11-2. And, unlike most of the punditocracy, Tua does not impress us as an elite QB talent.
We also like the coaching edge Sean McDermott enjoys over Mike McDaniel.
The 2.5 Points we get with Allen and his crew plus the rainy forecast make this an easy pick--Under the Number.
Bills 26
Dolphins 20
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