2026 NFL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD- (ATS)...WEEK ONE
A quick review of the Gairzo’s philosophy on the first month of NFL handicapping...
The truncated NFL preseason means teams have less time to evaluate talent, devise and implement game plans, and develop team cohesion, which is more important in football than any team sport.
The first 2-4 weeks of the season, essentially, are an extension of the pre-season. New management, coaches, and player turnaround--any major upheaval--determine the ability of a given team--to adjust on the fly.
In short, the more a team changes, the longer the period of adjustment for the players to synch-up, and perform at peak level.
Early in the season we lean to the Under on our Totals calls. Defenses are more vanilla than Nabisco’s wafers--they’ll be attacking their opponents more intensely and often.
Offenses, also bland, have to clear the cobwebs until they meld as a unit. Remember, the purpose of the pre-season is talent evaluation. Although the 32 NFL squads have the last week of the “old pre-season” to formalize their rosters and implement a Week One game plan, most starters--QBs being the most notable--haven’t played together, and will need a couple of weeks to get in rhythm.
In low Spread games or pick-em contests, we usually go with the better or more successful QB and HC. In divisional games, familiarity breeds contempt, so our picks reflect that inherent intensity
SOURCES AND METHODS
I usually try to credit my favorite websites, podcasts, or radio and TV shows when I cite trends and stats. (Much of the same info is available on multiple outlets.)
To me, the best guy out there is Steve Makinen at VSIN.com--He’s got a database the size of Saturn...
I don’t agree with him much of the time, and last year, my Premium Picks--my Five Specials and non-Sun-Day games and their designated O/U picks--were more accurate and profitable than his “Best Bets.”
Anyone can have a good year--the pros like Makinen string together handfuls, then have one down year, or two.
Finally, my Spreads are taken from various sources until I lock them in at 8:00PM the day before the game(s)--unless there is a huge change in game conditions, personnel, or other anomalies.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Last year we correctly called 8 of the 14 playoff teams. Six AFC; 2 NFC...
Here’s our 2026 pre-season playoff predictions:
AFC DIVISION WINNERS
North = Pittsburgh
South = Houston
East = Buffalo
West = KC
#5 = L.A. Chargers
#6 = Baltimore
#7 = Denver
NFC DIVISION WINNERS
North = Detroit
South = Tampa Bay
East = Philadelphia
West = Seattle
#5 = Chicago
#6 = L.A. Rams
#7 = Dallas
AFCCG = Denver @ Pittsburgh
NFCCG = Dallas @ Lions
Super Bowl = Denver @ Lions
2025 FINAL TALLY SHEET...
NFL 2025 PLAYOFFS = 5 - 8
2025 OVERALL. = 150 - 132 - 3 .526
PLAYOFF O/U = 5 - 7 O/U CUMULATIVE = 71 - 70 .504
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 1 - 4 CUMULATIVE = 45 - 40 - 1 .529
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 116 - 110 .513
NFL 2025 REGULAR SEASON OVERALL. = 145 - 124 - 3 .539
WEEKLY O/U = 1 - 4 O/U CUMULATIVE = 65 - 63 .508
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 1 - 4 CUMULATIVE = 44 - 40 - 1 .524
GAME OF THE WEEK 9 – 8 LOCK OF THE WEEK 8 – 9
UPSET SPECIAL 8 - 9 O/U OF THE WEEK 11 – 6
STEELERS. 8 - 8 - 1 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 109 - 103 .514
Pretty much a break-even 2025 NFL Handicapping effort by the Gairzo, but the boys at CBS, The Sporting news--and a few others were well below even that minimum standard...
I smoked 'em!!!
Enough small talk--it’s a new year; let’s get to the games...
GAME OF THE WEEK
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks -3.5. 44.5 GW [O]
We haven’t budged an inch from our Super Bowl analysis found here:
Drake Maye’s Patriots aren ‘t going to sneak up on anyone this year, and according to several respected sites, New England’s draft was decidedly mediocre.
Again, we believe the chances of a Seattle blowout far outweigh the possibility of a field goal loss--the hook doesn’t impress us.
Give the Pats the points, and enjoy watching them trudge into a buzz saw in the Pacific Northwest. We’re going with the Over...
Seahawks 30
Patriots. 16
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers +3 47.5 LW [U]
I just don’t get Vegas’ thinking on this line--only a field goal? I agree, the Black Cats helped themselves with an impressive draft, and owner, David Tepper, just gave QB, Bryce Young a public vote of confidence, but frankly, I'm not sure that will help Young too much...
I don’t think Young’s first four campaigns should’ve earned him such confidence--and watch out, Kenny Picket is backing him up.
Chicago’s Caleb Willliams is becoming elite , and HC, Ben Johnson, gives us more to like than Dave Canales in Charlotte. (Being fair to Canales, though, the problem in Carolina is ownership.)
Week One is, usually, not our favorite time to bet against a home dog, but the Bears are going to be a serious team this year...
Give up the field goal, take Da Bears , and play the Under...
Bears. 28
Panthers 10
Okay, we’ll stop here and post the rest of our Specials and the entire slate of games. On the weekend...
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