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  • Gary Porpora

TNF 2023 WEEK SIX PICK ATS


Thursday OCT. 12, 2023

Broncos @ Chiefs (-9.5) Broncos +455; Chiefs -625 48 [U]

WHERE: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video

CONDITIONS: WINDY...71° F with 14 MPH winds with 30+ MPH gusts...


Generally, we are loathe to lay double digit spreads, especially in divisional games on a short week. But what exactly do the Broncos have in terms of personnel, scheme, or history--save for Denver covering in the last three--that would compel bettors to take the points?


The visiting Broncos invade Arrowhead with an historically awful defense--last in the league in every single important defensive stat:

  • Surrendering 7.0 YPP...5.9 YPR...8.5 Yards per pass

  • Giving up 4.4 TDs per game....

  • 187.6 Opponents rushing YPG

More Denver Trends:

  • Denver is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 10 games.

  • Denver is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.

  • Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Kansas City.

  • Denver is 0-10 SU in their last 10 games against Kansas City.

  • Denver is 2-12 SU in their last 14 games on the road.

  • Denver is 0-7 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City.

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference West division.

  • Denver is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in October.

Some Chiefs Trends:

  • Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games.

  • Kansas City is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games.

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games against Denver.

  • Kansas City is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home.

  • Kansas City is 7-0 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Denver.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference.

  • Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference West division.

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games played in October.

  • Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the favorite.


THE PICK


No doubt, Denver has huge value as a Costanza pick, but their horrid defense goes up against an offense looking to hit its stride at home with the best QB and coach in the game.

Knowing full well we could get back-doored by the Wild Horses, we’re sticking with our initial pick--Bet the Arrowheads, laying the 9.5 Points, and play the Under.


Chiefs 30

Broncos 13

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