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  • Gary Porpora

TNF 2023 WEEK FIVE

TNF - NFL - WEEK FIVE

Thursday OCT. 5 2023

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

Chicago Bears +5.5 (+225) @ Washington Commanders (-278) 44.5 O/U

WHERE: Fed Ex Field, Landover Maryland

WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video

CONDITIONS: IDEAL...73° F with a 4% chance of precipitation...


Like last week, we snagged this Line and Total late Sunday Night and are very happy the Sharps are on the same side of the Numbers as the Gairzo. Playing those early lines has paid off for us as we find ourselves close to .500 On the year--this time last year we were below the .400 mark.


THE CHAOS FACTOR


Only the Pittsburgh Steelers rival House Republicans and the Chicago Bears for bragging rights to the Week Five Chaos Trophy...


Okay, let’s give the Toothless Nags in Denver a nod--they are definitely in the running for the worst team in football.


(BTW, credit for the hilarious "Toothless Nags" moniker for the Denvers goes to my all-time brother, Leonard Oaks--somehow we have created a competition for creating alternative names for NFL teams...


...Like my creation, the Washington Commandos--"Dohs" for short their new logo would be a tough looking guy in pads and helmet, wearing a kilt.)


Winless Chicago let Denver score 24 unanswered last week--and win their first game--to complete a 31-28 comeback win, at Soldier Field, no less....Offense, defense, and Special teams all contributed but not as much as an awful Bears squad that has been pounding nails into Matt Eberflus’ coffin since he was hired a year ago--poor guy might have done better were he a cocaine dealer.


Here’s a trend breakdown from Josh Applebaum over at VSIN.com:

  • In addition to receiving late line movement in their favor, the Bears also offer contrarian value as they're only receiving 28% of bets in a primetime game.

  • Short road dogs +6 or less are 12-9 ATS (57%) this season and 186-122 ATS (60%) since 2019.

  • Scott Novak, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (60% ATS).

  • Justin Fields, however, is just 8-20 ATS (29%) in his career, including 4-10 ATS (29%) as a road dog.

  • The Commanders will likely be a popular teaser play, taking them down from -6 to a pick'em, in which case they just have to win the game straight up.


THE PICK


This baby is a prime candidate for our O/U of the Week--the Commandos have the better overall roster and fifth-rounder QB, Sam Howell, is playing almost as well as Chicago first round pick Justin Fields.


It should be a shootout only because both teams will move the ball against very little resistance. Both average two turnovers/game, surrender a ton of sacks, and the QBs can change momentum with their feet.


We prefer home teams on such a short week unless the visitor has a decided advantage on one side of the ball--the Bears enjoy no such advantage against any team in the league, on any day of the week.


Take the ‘Dohs giving up the 5.5. And bet big on the Over.


Commanders 26

Bears 20

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