THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL – WEEK ELEVEN
TENNESSEE TITANS (+3.5) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 41 [O]
One of the most illuminating stats for Handicappers is Net Yards Per Play = NYPP.
Of the Top Ten Teams in NYYPP, four are in first place in their division four are in second place—New Orleans and Denver are the two exceptions.
Of the Bottom Ten Teams in NYPP, only the Giants, Minnesota, and The Bolts have a winning record…
For tonight’s purposes, the Pack, (0.17) Nets significantly more YPP than Tennessee, (-0.45).
What does that advantage mean?
We find our answer in the opponents both teams have faced.
· The Packers registered field goals or less wins in three of their four victories against two last place clubs, (NE and Da Bears)…
· They also beat the Bucs, who lead the NFL’s weakest division with a .500, record.
· Last week, they upset Dallas on the road…
· Green Bay’s only decisive win was over 3-7 Chicago. (27-10)
Nothing in Green Bay’s record, opponent quality, or result—makes us view the Pack as being a formidable team. Without AY-AY-Ron Rodgers, who gives them a shot against any team, 2022 might look even worse for Cheese Heads.
The Titans results tell a different story; if we dismiss the 41-7 blowout at Buffalo, Tennessee’s remaining games, except for a 19-10 win over the discombobulated Colts, were all one score affairs. Their other two losses were squeakers against the Giants and Chiefs.
Problem is, Washington is the best team the Titans have beaten.
This tells us Mike Vrabel—one of the league’s truly underrated coaches—has found a way to keep every game close despite an injured QB, nobody will compare to Rogers.
Derek Henry crushes in the run game, and a quietly efficient Titans defense sets the NFL standard on 3rd Down defense, allowing a conversion only 27.87% of the time.
The Titans are 8th best in Points Allowed and 10th in allowing the fewest Red Zone TDs.
We think Vrabel’s boys will keep this to a three-point game either way—which means we’ll take Tennessee and the Chalk—
Play the Over…***Just saw a cold, windy, forecast for Lambeau--we're changing our Total to The Under***
Titans 20
Packers 17