THE PURSUIT OF PERFECTION
NFL 2022 WEEK NINE – TALLY SHEET
WEEK SEVEN = 12 – 0 – 1 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 69 – 65 – 1
WEEK SEVEN 0/U 3 – 2 O/U CUMULATIVE 31 – 28 – 1 .525
SPECIALS 3 – 0 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 22 – 13 – 1 .629
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 5 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 4 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 8 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 3
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 53 – 41 – 1 .564
NFL WEEK TEN - ATS
No, you are not seeing things, no typos, no mistakes—the Gairzo had a perfect week against the Boys in Vegas. Well, the only miss was the Vikings and Commanders push.
I don’t want brag—what am I saying—of course I want to brag!!!
Writing this column has been a hobby of mine for 15 years; my writing knife stays sharp, and I can explore the history and dynamics of the NFL—I’ve been a rabid fan since I achieved consciousness.
Some of my greatest childhood memories were watching the NFL games, with me sitting on the floor, my Dad in his Lazy-Boy, and playing the, “Is Jim Brown dead yet?” game. It was our private little game based on the brutal hits that were needed to put the NFL’s GOAT running back on the ground, only after he obliterated 2-3 defenders…
Anyone who has seen Mr. Brown carry a football knows what I’m talking about. Fairly often after receiving a bone crunching hit—The Cleveland HOFer would remain motionless on the ground for a few seconds too long---
“ Dad, I think he’s dead…”
My Dad watched a football game while reading the newspapers. He would peer over the business section…
“He just might be, son…”
Invariably, Brown would pull himself up like a fallen 70 year-old and trudge back to the huddle as if he’d never play another down.
Next play, the original number 32 would trample a couple more defenders, take another brutal hit, and the ritual would repeat. My Dad and I found it hysterically funny.
Point being, handicapping the modern NFL let’s me hear childhood echoes, and helps me release my competitive juices.
Therefore, yes, I’m boasting…You can Google until your fingers rot—you will not find any handicapper who can document going 12-0-1 in a given week’s slate. In fact, you will find relatively few who pick every game, every week—simply because staying above 55% is next to impossible. Tap the link to see how difficult it is to pick merely half of the games right week in, week out…
A lot of pros—Sharps or Sharks—play games with their tallies. For example if you read “29-12-1 over my last 42 picks” (.707), you might think, “Wow, I’m going with this guy!” Think again—that’s the Gairzo’s record in his last 42 picks. I conveniently left out my blistering 21-43 record (.328) to start the season’s first four weeks.
Now, since I have poked the Handicapping Gods, watch as I go 0-14 in Week Ten…
GAME OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Chargers +7 @ San Francisco 49ers 45 GW [U]
The Chargers bring just enough offensive firepower through the air to make seven points too much to pass up—even if San Fran’s pass defense hovers around the Top Ten; even if Christian McCaffery continues to become a multi-threat weapon; even if the Niners crank up their running game, I don't believe they are seven points better than the Chargers
Jimmy Garopollo is still searching for the consistency that will take his game to the next level. Justin Herbert has recovered from a rib ailment earlier in the year and we think the Bolts are getting disrespected with this Spread.
Trouble is, the Niners are every bit as good as the Bolts and the McCaffery acquisition may be their secret to a Super Bowl berth.
When two teams weigh the same, when talent, line play, and win/loss records are equal, we go with the better QB— in this case, it’s not close. Take the Bolts, the points, and the Under.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers +4.5 43 LW [O]
I know, I know—I’m breaking several rules here…
· Betting against Ay-Ay-Rawn Rodgers…
· Betting against the Pack at home—Since 2008, owners of the NFL’s 7th best ATS Home Dog mark, (.600)…
· Betting on a Road Favorite in a year of the Underdogs…
· Making this game my Lock of the Week…
Aaron Rodgers blames everyone but himself for his Packers dismal 3
-6 record. The receivers aren’t getting open, the O-Line can’t block, and the defense is soft…
Woe is Ay-Ay-Rawn…
No, don’t look at the bearded fool behind the curtain who has thrown almost a handful of Red Zone picks, over/underthrown receivers all over the field and who owns the biggest QB contract in league history
This little bitch—an aging smugly punk who will take home over 40M dollars this year with 61 million more in guaranteed money—should spend some of his vast fortune on a writer—I am available—to script his increasingly inane ramblings to the press:
“Aaron Rodgers says on The Pat McAfee Show that the Packers are routinely making double-digit mental errors in games this season when, in past seasons, that number was, at most, seven. Guys who are making too many mistakes shouldn’t be playing. Gotta start cutting some reps.”
“Asked by McAfee about his own performance, Rodgers said that QB coach Tom Clements gave Rodgers his highest single-game grade yet this season in Sunday’s loss against the Commanders.”
Yikes. Rodgers completed 23 of 35 passes for just 194 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He struggled to get anything going downfield and even committed a fumble, although it was recovered by Green Bay.
Here’s what a spoiled bitch-lete who recently signed the biggest QB contract in league history should say when his team fails with him at the helm:
“Look, I’m the guy who recently signed a 150M dollar contract—if I get sacked—it’s on me…If I throw a pick, it’s on me…If a pass gets dropped, it’s on me…If we’re 3-6 and playing lousy football—look right here—I am the problem….”
There, fixed that for you Aaron—and you’re lucky I am not one of your teammates—I’d a jacked your ass against the wall years ago.
This week the Packers face an ornery Cowboys squad trying to revisit their glory days by winning more than one post-season game in a given year. A feat they haven’t achieved since 1997.
As a Steelers fan, I love writing that sentence.
Full disclosure: I took a flyer on Dallas winning the Super Bowl this season because they have the defensive stud every playoff team needs. Micah Parsons is going to torture the injured and porous Packers O-Line and I hope Parsons and the ’Boys---the best QB Sackers in the business—stomp Rodgers as if he were flaming bag of dog shit on a porch.
On paper, it shouldn’t be close. The Dallas “D” is legit Top Five in every important category—and Top Ten in every other defensive stat.
Green Bay’s rush defense is shaky at best, they are pedestrian in rushing offense and Rodgers has been unable to compensate for that inconsistent running attack.
Here’s are some interesting little factoids from Tyler Sullivan over at CBS Sportsline:
· Since the start of last season, the Cowboys are 19-6 ATS (best in the NFL)
· Mike McCarthy is 12-2-1 ATS in his career coming off the bye (2-0 ATS with Dallas)
Finally, let’s play the revenge card: This is Mike McCarty’s first shot at his former team who he parted ways with three years ago.
Dallas wins big, Rodgers sulks. Play the Over…
New Orleans Saints -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 40.5 US [O]
I usually avoid picking Steelers games as Specials because I root for them and can’t let my loyalties compromise my bankroll—but I like the Black & Gold in his spot for several reasons
Since Mike Tomlin was hired as head coach of the Steelers his team is:
· 13-5 SU after a bye but…
· Just 9-9 ATS after a bye...
· Only two teams eclipse Pittsburgh’s SU .712 percentage at home during those same sixteen years…
· Only four clubs are better ATS as Home Team as the Steelers, (.547)…
· Pittsburgh’s .619 mark is the NFL standard as a SU Home Dog…
· As is their far superior .833 ATS percentage when getting points at Home…
On those rock solid trends alone, the Steelers earn backing in this game—but wait, there’s more…
THE NAME’S DALTON
In his career against his former AFC North rivals, Andy Dalton has compiled these less than impressive stats:
· W – L = 3 - 13
· QBR = 58.4
· Yards Per Pass Attempt = 6.1
· 19 TD 14 Int.
Pittsburgh under Tomlin has consistently exploited Daltons weaknesses and minimized his strengths…
But wait, there’s more…
The Saints played Monday Night; the Steelers are coming off a bye—and they better be hankering to get the cow patty taste out of their mouths from the 34-13 drubbing orchestrated by the undefeated Eagles in Week Eight…
Edge rusher, OLB, and reigning DPOY, T.J Watt, will see limited action. His presence transforms a gritty defense that has trouble stopping the run into a tight defense that makes life miserable for quarterbacks.
***I would have ended my analysis here, but just found out Minkah Fitzpatrick has appendicitis and newly acquired CB, William Jackson III is out with a bad back.***
The Steelers, then will still be vulnerable in the secondary—and they were not up to standard to begin with. Don’t care, I’m not changing my call; place your bets cautiously. We’re playing the Over…
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis Colts +4.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders 42 [U]
Sometimes handicapping is simple—especially when Robert Irsay is involved. Hey I admit it—I envy the guy who has enough money to risk the value of a multi-billion dollar asset like a professional football team by hiring a head coach who enjoyed that status only on the high school level.
Jeff Saturday was a hell of a football player, and according to Joe Thomas, former tackle for the Browns, Saturday is Bob Irsay’s drinking buddy.
Thomas had a lot more to say. Not sure I agree with all of it but Thomas is a HOFer; he knows what it takes to dedicate one’s self to play or coach the most demanding and violent game on the planet.
Make your own judgment:
Bob Irsay has a right to spend his money as he so chooses, but if I ever get my hip replaced, I want a surgeon with experience, credentials, and a network of people who think he is brilliant at his job—not a guy who was moderately successful operating on pig cadavers, even if he is my drinking buddy.
At least Marc Davis’ dad, Al, would be proud his son has made some bold moves like relocating to Vegas and hiring John Gruden to a ten-year contract. Gruden wetting the Raiders bed with sexist and multi-phobic emails wasn’t Davis’ fault.
I think the next bold move has to be letting HC Josh McDaniel decide whether or not it’s time to part with QB, Derek Carr.
I know Colts players will deny it, coaches too, but we got to believe Irsay’s cavalier, if not wholly flippant attitude reflected in Jeff Saturday’s hiring will trickle down into the Raiders locker-room, i.e. “if he has no respect for the game, why should we?”
We don’t expect a lot from a team already scraping the bottom of the league’s offensive barrel. Indy has scored more than 20 points once all year. The Colt’s better than good defense might keep the Raiders from scoring though, they surrendered more than 20 points only three times all year--and that’s why this is our Totals Special.
Give Indy the points and prepare for an eminently boring game.
As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated…
NFL WEEk TEN - ATS
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers +3 @ 41.5 [O]
Seattle Seahawks +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.5 [U]
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ Buffalo Bills 43.5
Detroit Lions +2.5 @ Chicago Bears 48.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs 50.5
Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Miami Dolphins 48.5
Houston Texans +5 @ New York Giants 41
New Orleans Saints -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 40.5 US [O]
Denver Broncos +2.5 @ Tennessee Titans 37
Indianapolis Colts +4.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders 42
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 @ Green Bay Packers 43 LW
Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Los Angeles Rams 41
Los Angeles Chargers +7 @ San Francisco 49ers 45 GW [U]
Washington Commanders +11 @ Philadelphia Eagles 44