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  • Gary Porpora

NFL 2023 DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - PICKS ATS

Updated: Jan 20

NFL 2023 – SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND 

REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504

PLAYOFF TALLY =  3 - 3  OVERALL  137 - 135 - 6  .504

0/U  =  5 - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 76 - 59   .563

SPECIALS  2 - 2    SPECIALS CUMULATIVE  41 - 33 - 2   .554

GAME OF THE WEEK    10 – 8 - 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK   11 – 7 - 1 

UPSET SPECIAL     5 – 14              O/U OF THE WEEK   15 - 4

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE   =  117 - 92 - 2   .560

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS


We had a Super Sister Kisser of a Super Wild Card Weekend, splitting on our Specials picks, but we killed on our Totals calls missing only the Pittsburgh/Buffalo game.


Demeco Ryan’s Texans throttled the vaunted Cleveland defense into oblivion; although I lost that wager, I can never say I’m disappointed seeing the Skidmarks fall woefully short of expectations.


The greater joy of the weekend was the Packers stomping the Cowboys further into post season infamy--and, yet again, exposing Dallas as the most notoriously overhyped, entitled, underachieving team in American team sports history.


Let’s get into this weeks playoff games...


GAME OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)  46  [U]


After our stats comparison we learned what we already know--these teams are excellent and very evenly matched.


The Chiefs have the better defense, the Bills have the advantage with the ball.  We could continue, but we won’t, because stats don’t matter when you have two well coached division winning clubs with elite quarterback and interior line play.


In other words, any handicapper could make  a sound case for just about any outcome.  


Buffalo is the hotter team.  The Bills lost six games--none by more than six points--two against weak division rivals, NE and the Jets, and mediocre Denver and the Jags.


The Arrowheads lost their way after Week Eight losing to the divisional foes Denver and The Raiders.


Last week, against a Wattless Steelers defense, Josh Allen looked a lot like Big Ben--he had that look in his eye.


This might be an Overtime win by a field goal.  We’re going to give Mahomes, MaAuto, and Andy Reid the 2.5 and go with the Bills to beat the Spread.


We think the defenses will step up--making the Under our call.


Bills  24

Chiefs 21



UPSET SPECIAL


Houston Texans (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) 44  US   [U]


Houston is unbalanced with a bad running game.  Baltimore is the best team in the league and will face a rematch with the Gold Miners in the first Super Bowl played in Vegas.


Here’s a nugget from our favorite handicapper, Steve Makinen at vsin.com:


In their last 15 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 5-10 SU and ATS (33.3%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run, and the record drops to 3-9 SU and ATS, including 2-8 in their last 10. Plus, since 2004, rookie starting QBs facing underdog lines of seven points or more have won just 29 games, going 29-169 SU and 81-108-9 ATS (42.9%).


That’s almost enough to make me switch Special designation from the Upset Special to Lock of the Week.


Key word:  almost...


Baltimore will win decisively by a touch down; I’m just not going to dismiss the Houstons out of hand.  Last week, they dominated Cleveland on offense and out-schemed them on defense.  


The Crows can be had...


Future 2024 COY, Demeco Ryan’s boys have nothing to lose except the game--and odds are, they will.  But Lamar Jaxkson has a passer rating of 68.3 with 900 yards, 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in four career playoff games.


The Crows can be had...


We think the Shitkickers surprise the Magpies and keep the game within one score--Under the Number.


Ravens  24

Texans  16



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) @ Detroit Lions (-6)  49.5  O/U


I’ve been betting on Dan Campbell all year--and winning.


Baker Mayfield has also been my boy all year--and the Mateys are jumping on the Mayfield train.


Statwise, The Jungle Kings are clearly the more talented, deeper football team, and both groups are superbly coached.


Full disclosure: Tampa Bay +6 was my first pick on Tuesday; I’ve spent the week trying to change to Detroit, but if doing this for 15 years has taught me one thing, it is to follow your instincts.


The Mayfield Mateys are playing like Love’s Packers and the Texans Stroud--free, loose and with a belief they can beat anyone.


We’ll follow our instincts--to where, I have no clue.


The Lions win by a field goal; The Bucs Cover the Spread...We’re calling the Under.


Lions  26

Buccaneers  23



Green Bay Packers (+10) @ San Francisco 49ers (-10)  51 [U]


Once agin, if we find ourselves gnashing our teeth, because we didn’t change picks we were thinking of changing, at least we had the guts to stick with our gut.


Like in Baltimore and Detroit, this Spread seems too high, this one underplays the historical tension between these teams and the speed of the young Packers defense...


The Prospectors win easy, Green Bay keeps it close to the end...


The Under is our play.


UPON FURTHER REVIEW


After watching the Texans wilt in the second half, I'm changing my pick to the home team Niners -10 in the night cap...


49ers  29....33

Pack 21...20


As usual here’s the complete slate:


NFL 2023 – DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF

Houston Texans (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) 44  US  [U]

Green Bay Packers (+10) @ San Francisco 49ers (-10)  51 [U]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) @ Detroit Lions (-6)  49.5  O/U

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)  46  GW  [U]




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NFL 2023 – CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF WEEKEND REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 CHAMPIONSHIP  TALLY =  0 - 2    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 9 =  .250 2023 OVERALL  = 137 - 141 - 6  =  .493 0/U  =  0 -2 

NFL 2023 CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 DIVISIONAL TALLY =  0 - 4    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 7  OVERALL  = 137 - 139 - 6 0/U  =  1 - 2  - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 77 - 61 - 1   .558 SPECIALS  0 - 4

SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND - 2023

NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK EIGHTEEN =  10 - 6 WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 0/U  =  5 - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 71 - 58   .550 SPECIALS  2 - 2    SPECIALS CUMULATIVE  39 - 31 - 2   .557 GAME OF

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