NFL 2023 – CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF WEEKEND
REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL = 134 – 132 - 6 .504
CHAMPIONSHIP TALLY = 0 - 2 PLAYOFFS = 3 - 9 = .250
2023 OVERALL = 137 - 141 - 6 = .493
0/U = 0 -2 O/U CUMULATIVE 77 - 63 - 1 .550
SPECIALS 0 - 2 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 41 - 39 - 2 .513
GAME OF THE WEEK 10 – 10 - 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 11 – 7 - 1
UPSET SPECIAL 5 – 15 O/U OF THE WEEK 15 - 5
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 118 - 102 - 3 .536
NFL CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY
During the 15 years I’ve been plying this little hobby of mine, I’ve been under .500 in the playoffs maybe six times, but never at the irredeemable .250 I’ve amassed in 2023.
I have a buddy with whom I argue about the MAGA people; yesterday he asked when I was going to post my pick. Now, you would figure a die-hard Trump supporter would take the opportunity to be borderline cruel, and funny, by telling me he was anxious to see my pick, just so he could make the polar opposite wager.
Instead, he sounded genuinely interested in what I had to say...
Proving yet again the IQ of your average Trump fan rarely surpasses the high two-digit mark. However, my post-season prognostications this year prove the mental capacity of this fervent Biden guy can only aspire to that un-lofty height.
We trudge on..into the abyss
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) 47.5 O/U GW
This is one of those games where you don’t need in-depth analysis. The more you get into the weeds the more you realize these clubs deserve to be here and most bettors expect both to perform at the elite level.
Therefore no outcome--except a 19+ point blowout by either team--will surprise any bettor.
If you crave an exhaustive analysis go here:
We’re not betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reed--even though the play calling and quarterbacking is almost as elite for San Fran...
STATISTICAL ADVANTAGES
SF gains one full yard more per play than the Arrowheads...
AND surrenders .3 YPP on defense--that equals a 1.3 YPP differential--and that is a huge disparity...
The 49ers also enjoy an advantage in Turnover Ratio--they gain .6 Turnovers per game; KC gives away .5 Turnovers/game--that differential of just a tick over one TO/game is another huge stat...
The Chiefs have a significant edge in the kicking game.
On defense KC has a sharp edge against 3rd down conversion and Red Zone Scoring percentages...
And defensive sack percentage...
In what I see as a pick ‘em game, we took the early line of SF -2.5--currently -2-- and we think both running games will open up the field for the QBs--and Mahomes has been the best in the business for five years.
Take the Arrowheads and the 2.5...and a cautious bet on the Over.
Chiefs 26
49es 24