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  • Gary Porpora

NFL 2023 CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504

DIVISIONAL TALLY =  0 - 4    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 7  OVERALL  = 137 - 139 - 6

0/U  =  1 - 2  - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 77 - 61 - 1   .558

SPECIALS  0 - 4    SPECIALS CUMULATIVE  41 - 36 - 2   .526

GAME OF THE WEEK    10 – 9 - 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK   11 – 7 - 1 

UPSET SPECIAL     5 – 15              O/U OF THE WEEK   15 - 5

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE   =  118 - 98 - 3   .546


NFL CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY


Your humble prognosticator made exactly one correct Premium Pick in last week’s Divisional playoffs--1 -6 -1--which just killed his goal of beating the boys over at CBS.com...


Furthermore, to salvage a .500 Mark on the 285 game NFL slate, he must sweep the last thee games left to be played.


Let’s see if we can make it work...


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

Date: Sunday, January 28 Time: 3:00 pm ET Channel: CBS

Weather:   46° F with a 67% chance of rain...

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-2,5) 44.5  O/U


I’ve been on the Ravens all year as the best team in the NFL.  I’m not going to back down now for several solid reasons:


This from the brilliant Warren Sharp:


  • Since their Week 10 bye, the Chiefs have not faced a solid offense...

  • They played the clearly flawed Eagles offense and lost 21-17.

  • They played the, upstart Packers offense and lost 27-19.

  • They played a solid Bills offense and lost 20-17.

  • Post-bye, aside from those three losses, they played the following:

  • That’s 0-3 against starting QBs and 4-1 against backup QBs.


If we look at the dual game logs we see the Arrowheads were 1-4 against playoff teams.  In Week 9 they beat the vastly overrated Dolphins; in the eight weeks before that, they lost to Detroit in the season opener--then beat up on a bunch of bad teams.


After they won the Germany game against the Fish, KC did not win two in a row until they finished the season with wins against Cincy and the Bolts.


Matchup stats clearly show The Chiefs have a better than average offense and, we can argue their defense has been their best unit--but Baltimore is legitimately elite on both sides of the ball.  The Ravens were 6-3 against playoff teams--two of those losses were to a miracle Pittsburgh club that slithered into the post-season--Cleveland beat the Magpies by two points in Week 10.


In the most important Gil Brandt stats, no matter how good KC might be--remember, they’re defending world champs-- the Ravens are superior on both sides of the ball:


3rd Down Conversions....Red Zone TD%...Scoring...YPRush...Turnover Margin...Giveaways/Takeaways...


Add to all of the above, The Ravens have the best kicker in NFL history, they’ve been forged tough in an historically competitive division, had a better record with a much harder schedule--and, Mark Andrews the best tight end this side of Travis Kelce, returns to the Crow’s Nest.  Baltimore is--by far--the healthiest they’ve been all year


Of course since Andy Reid took over in 2013, his Chiefs are SU and ATS the best performing Underdog and Road Dog in the NFL.


I’m not sleeping on KC.  This week, my betting brother, Lenny Oakes, characterized Patrick Mahomes as a “vampire” who can suck the life out of any defense--don’t doubt it for a second.


But, the presumptive league MVP, Lamar Jackson, is having his best year as a thrower and runner--he’ll be wearing a garlic necklace and wait for just the right moment to drive a stake through the heart of the world champs.


Kansas City is playing its second road playoff game against a deeper more talented team who can run the ball down their opponent's gullet--which is what I think will happen.


Lay the 4 points and play the Over.


Ravens  30

Chiefs  20



GAME OF THE WEEK

Date: Sunday, January 28 Time: 6:30 pm ET Channel: FOX

Weather: 74° F with a 0% chance of rain...Seasonal; sunny & clear...

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-7)  52  [U]


Dan Campbell has changed the culture in the Lions building--and on every street corner in the Motor City.  It’s been fun watching the guy call fake punts, go for it on 4th down, or try for two point conversions when he doesn’t have to.


The coach believes in his team, and his players give it back to him three times over.   These Lions have a real shot to win their first trophy of any kind in 67 years.


They face a Gold Miners team that has reached this playoff milestone the last two years, and you have to believe San Fran is going to be focused and hungry to get to Las Vegas.


Stats show these are two evenly matched teams who have overcome a lot of adversity to get to this level.  The slight advantages the Prospectors may have in talent and in coaching are minimal--but experience does count and the Niners have a ton more big game experience.


The Lions remind me of the 1972 Steelers; they need another year or two to make their mark.  San Fran just has too many weapons on both sides of the ball. 


Until I discovered Deebo Samuel was a go I was ready to take the points and the Lions, but with Samuels and Christian McCaffery playing, I’ll lay the chalk and hope to strike it rich with the Niners.  


49ers  30

Lions  21

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NFL 2023 – CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF WEEKEND REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 CHAMPIONSHIP  TALLY =  0 - 2    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 9 =  .250 2023 OVERALL  = 137 - 141 - 6  =  .493 0/U  =  0 -2 

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NFL 2023 – SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 PLAYOFF TALLY =  3 - 3  OVERALL  137 - 135 - 6  .504 0/U  =  5 - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 76 - 59   .563 SPECIALS

SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND - 2023

NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK EIGHTEEN =  10 - 6 WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 0/U  =  5 - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 71 - 58   .550 SPECIALS  2 - 2    SPECIALS CUMULATIVE  39 - 31 - 2   .557 GAME OF

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