THE COMEBACK KID!
Updated: Nov 7, 2019
AFTER WEEK EIGHT
Week Seven Picks: 9– 6 2019 Overall Tally: 61 – 58 – 2
Weekly Totals Picks: 3 – 3 Cumulative Totals: 24 – 24 - 1
Weekly Specials 4 – 0 Cumulative Specials: 16 – 15 – 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 3 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 4 – 4
GAME OF THE WEEK
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens +3 45 [o]
If you’re a Pittsburgh fan like the Gairzo, these two teams—along with The Raidas and Dem Cowboys—are in an eternal cataclysmic struggle for the top of your Hate List.
The putrid faces on every Steelers fan’s Mount Rushmore of Revulsion change only in wonderful dreams where Black & Gold clad heroes rappel down those gigantic sculptures sledge-hammering John Harbaugh’s baby mouth, painting plastic surgery scars on Jerry Jones’ elastic face, jack-hammering Just win, baby on Al Davis’ forehead, or chiseling a scarlet “C” onto the center of Belichick’s forehead.
Our Hate lives in our DNA—this is our OATH:
Why We Hate the Cowboys…
We hate Dallas because unlike baseball’s Yankees or hockey’s Canadiens who boast 20+ championships in their histories, are relevant in nearly every decade, and have earned every fan’s reverence,
Since 1996 Them Cowboys are 3-9 in playoff competition, haven’t sniffed a championship game, and are barely above water in W/L at .520. Yet, the NFL shoves the ‘Boys down our throats every year as if they were the league’s elite team.
Why We Hate Da Raidas…
Because it was so much fun destroying Al Davis’ Delusions of Grandeur in the ‘70s, then hearing John Madden weep about the Immaculate Reception at least two times a year during his broadcasting days.
Mark Davis took over control of the Silver and Black when his mercurial father, Al passed. While Al was known for his fierce loyalty to his players—and warehouse full of velour track suits, his son is known as the dude with the most ridiculed haircut on the planet…
I mean, c’mon this guy makes Uncle Fester look like Brad Pitt—and I don’ even want to know what his right hand is contemplating…
At least, we know Mark Davis isn’t a superficial face-shamer, because he hired this guy to be his head coach:
To be clear, the guy on the left.
Unfortunately, John Gruden has eight years remaining on a ten year 100 million dollar contract, has won a Super Bowl, and is a genuinely admired offensive football mind. In a couple years, Gruden’s Raiders very well could win a Super Bowl—whereupon every Steelers fan will experience this:
Why We Hate The Patriots…
Because as much as I like to poke fun at my “enemies” in the sports world, I’ve always respected, albeit begrudgingly, those who are now or have been Pittsburgh’s greatest rivals—people like Tom Landry, The Turd-duck-en, John Madden, Ray Lewis, Harbaugh, etc.
I just can’t give that respect to Bill Belichick—and it seems I am the only one.
Every pundit, Punjab, expert, and analyst, in every medium slathers this guys balls.
Maybe they haven’t read the Wikipedia summary of this guy’s cheating and how he comes off as a two-bit hustler the league covered up for…
If you want documented reporting into Belichick’s sordid history as a Cheater, read this definitive article, then make up your own mind:
Bill Belichick has been sanctioned as GM and coach more than any other coach in any team sport. Only to NE fanatics is there an argument Belichick isn’t a cheater on the same level as Barry Bonds or Lance Armstrong—neither of whom had a multi-billion dollar institution manipulating witnesses, scrubbing off the tarnish, and destroying the evidence of their infamy
What sickens me most about Belichick is when it comes to identifying personnel to fit his system, his only peer is Chuck Noll. When it comes to in game tactics to confuse the opponent, Darth Belichick’s only equals are Paul Brown and Curly Lambeau. Like Bonds or Clemens or Armstrong, Belichick had the intellect and talent to become an historical figure.
Why cheat repeatedly? Why jeopardize your legacy?
Considering The Dark Lord of New England has just recorded his 300th victory as head coach and plans to coach into his 70s, he will become the winningest coach ever.
The evidence shows each of those victories is tainted.
Why We Hate The Ravens?
…er, I mean the Magpies, or The Crows, or the Road-kill sucking Rat Birds?
· John Harbaugh has the most punchable face in America…
· Ray Lewis was an accomplice to murder, and obstructed justice
· Joe Flacco
· Art Modell
· Baltimore—Charm City, my ass…
Need I say more?
Oh Yeah, the Game Pick…
Look for the Pats to spy on Lamar Jackson. I’m betting Belichick plays more zone in this game, the same way he played the last AFCCG vs KC. His guys can’t focus on their receiver in man coverage and keep an eye on Jackson.
Given Harbaugh’s relative success against Belichick, dealing NE two playoff losses, we expect Baltimore to stay in this one to the end.
Looking back on New England’s 8-0 start, they have played exactly one quality team—Buffalo. The Magpies can count two quality victories over bitter rival Pittsburgh and Seattle.
I think these two teams are overrated, that includes their defenses. These are two offenses that can score on anyone and each QB will be the best either defense has faced all year. This game feels like one of those 14-10 halftime scores that explodes after the halftime adjustments.
These are the most interesting stats, Darth Belichick has never lost to a QB under the age of 24—and since Harbaugh took over, his Ravens are 4-8 as a Home Dog ATS.
Baltimore will keep it close, look for the Pats to take a late turnover and put a close game away with a field goal—Over the Total.
Patriots 29 Ravens 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
TAMPA BAY BUCCANNEERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -5.5 53 [U]
Big Bruce Arians fan here, but I’m not buying what he’s selling to Jameius Winston.
I don’t think Winston is buying it either. I mean, on the road at the L.A. Coliseum the Bucs put a 55 bacon cheeseburger on the vaunted Rams defense—and haven’t won since.
How does that happen?
Winston has yet to become a consistently dependable QB. Until he does, his team will be playing against more than a team wearing different colors
In fact, although they were off in Week 7, Tampa has played four road games in a row—including a visit to London. Seattle has yet to play two road games in a row this year.
Trends to ponder:
· The Buccaneers are 4-18 SU in their last 22 games on the road.
· The total has gone OVER in 16 of the Buccaneers' last 21 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 57.19)
· The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Seahawks' last 17 games. (Avg combined score: 51.82)
· The Buccaneers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
· The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home.
· The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorite.
· The Seahawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS loss.
· The Seahawks are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games when hosting an East Coast team.
Professional athletes don’t subscribe to the two or three-week road game rule, which basically holds that odds favor the home team even more when facing a team playing its second or third road game in a row.
The Seahawks are simply a better football team than the Bucs by at least seven points. In the last decade, Seattle ranks fourth as a home team SU and ATS. And since Tampa hasn’t fared well against back-up QBs this year, I’m looking at that Rams results as an outlier.
Lay the points and take the Under; Winston will throw at least one pick-six.
Seahawks 29 Buccaneers 23
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2.5 48.5 [O]
I nabbed this line early Monday morning when it was reported MVP Patrick Mahomes was likely to play As of this writing, KC is + 4 and a Home Dog—but I cut and paste my early lines on Monday and if I get lucky, well too bad.
Sometimes it’s more important when you catch the spread, than the number itself.
The Norsemen welcome Adam Theilen back from a bad hammy and will give the Chiefs a lethal dose of NFL leading rusher, Dalvin Cook. There won’t be much the Chiefs can do about Cook—they give up over 140+ rushing YPG.
The Arrowheads offense with back-up Matt Moore has performed well during Mahomes rehab, but the truth is Mahomes masks a lot of KC’s weaknesses—the Chiefs are not a complete team regardless of who is under center. They are the 5th worse rushing team in football, and can’t defend the run.
Right now, the Vikings are playing some of the best football in the league, and even though I still don’t trust Kirk Cousins, the Vikes are healthier and the Arrowheads are a different team without Mahomes, who will miss his third straight game.
To make things tougher for KC, CB, Xavier Rhodes returns from a concussion and will likely force Moore into at least one bad mistake.
The Vikings win outright, Over the Number
Vikings 31 Chiefs 22
O/U OF THE WEEK
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ L.A.CHARGERS +3.5 48.5 [O]
This baby was my second choice for Lock of the Week, but I have more faith in Seattle dominating at home against “You Never Know” Jameius Winston than I do Phillip Rivers laying down and letting the Packers have an easy day of it.
Of course the pick is Green Bay because Bolts fans will cringe yet again at a crowd filled with patrons wearing visitor jerseys. Chargers players were genuinely miffed when Pittsburgh fans forced a procedure call against the home team and Rivers had to call a timeout because he couldn’t handle the crowd noise.
Besides, since 2014, encompassing a myriad of coaches, and two different home fields, the Chargers are the NFL’s worst bet as an ATS Home Dog, (.300).
Makes you almost feel sorry for the Electricians, huh?
Nah, not me. I’m for anything that makes my bets more likely to pay off.
This one screams PARLAY!!!
Packers 34 Chargers 26
A Parlay is where a bettor predicts he will win more than one wager on the same ticket.
All the wagers must win or the ticket is a loser.
Obviously the more wagers on a single ticket, the higher the payout.
Last week, I got a wild hair and bet on Miami, Seattle, The Chargers and Cardinals to Cover. Only two of those teams Covered. I bet 35.00 to win 430.00 so it would have been a 12-1 payout.
I was not deterred. I bet 20.00 the Packers would Cover against KC, the Total Points would go Over—and the Dolphins would Cover a 15 point spread against the Steelers—ALL THREE HIT and it paid out at 6 to 1. (120.00)
I'll try to add a Parlay pick every Week…
Here is my Week Nine slate of picks:
Early NFL Lines For Week 9 - NFL Football Line Week Nine NFL Line 10/31 - 11/4, 2019
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/31 8:20 ET San Francisco -8 [O] At Arizona 44
11/3 9:30 ET Houston (At London) -2.5 [O] Jacksonville 47
11/3 1:00 ET At Buffalo -10.5 Washington 36.5
11/3 1:00 ET At Carolina -3.5 Tennessee 41
11/3 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -5 Chicago 44
11/3 1:00 ET At Kansas City US -2.5 Minnesota 48.5
11/3 1:00 ET NY Jets -5At Miami 41.5
11/3 1:00 ET Indianapolis -1 At Pittsburgh 43
11/3 4:05 ET At Oakland -2 Detroit 51.5
11/3 4:05 ET At Seattle LW -5.5 [U] Tampa Bay 53.5
11/3 4:25 ET At Denver -1 Cleveland 43
11/3 4:25 ET Green Bay O/U -3.5 At LA Chargers 45.5
11/3 8:20 ET New England GW -3 [O] At Baltimore 45
Monday Night Football Line
11/4 8:15 ET Dallas -7.5 [O] At NY Giants 47.5
Week 9 Byes: Atlanta, Cincinnati, LA Rams, New Orleans