SUPER WILD CARD SUNDAY - ATS
Updated: Jan 17
NFL 2022 – TALLY SHEET
WEEK EIGHTEEN = 8 – 8
REGULAR SEASON OVERALL = 134 – 130 - 7 = .508
0/U = 0 – 4 O/U CUMULATIVE 57 – 55 – 1 = .508
SPECIALS 2 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 36 – 30 – 1 = .545
GAME OF THE WEEK 8 – 8 LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 10 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 13 – 4 O/U OF THE WEEK 9 - 8
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 95 – 86 – 2 .522
Well, I was preparing to write my annual “mea culpa “ column after the second half of yesterday’s matinee in Santa Clara, followed by the first half of last night’s battle in Jacksonville.
It’s the annual column in which I admit I have nary a clue what I’m talking about, throw myself at the feet of my loyal readers, and beg for their generous understanding and mercy.
It turns out your humble columnist is a genius—every major point I made about both games unfolded before our very eyes:
· Pete Carroll kept it close for the first half, and there was no reason to believe that story couldn’t continue for the next two quarters…
· …Except the Niners obvious edge in talent reared its ugly head…
· …As did Seattle’s porous rush defense and lack of pass rush
· In Florida, the first half melt down—and awful luck—of Trevor Lawrence surprised none of us…
· Neither did did the Bolts commensurate undoing in the second half—despite the ref’s trying to help their cause…
· Doug Pederson’s experience, and level approach kept his team in the game…
· …And Brandon Staley’s lack thereof all but insures and justifies his imminent firing, coming this week…
· Like I said with eight QBs and five head coaches having never breathed playoff atmosphere, anything can, and ultimately did, happen…
With those lessons well learned, let’s tackle Sunday’s three-scoop concoction, beginning in upstate New York:
Miami Dolphins (+12.5) @ Buffalo Bills 43.5 [O]
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Sometimes these calls are easy.
Unlike Pete Carroll’s history of keeping divisions games close and winning more than his fair share, Dolphin’s head man, Mike McDaniel, doesn’t have the history or the horses to keep things close to the NFL’s most consistent and balanced offense this side of the Golden Gate Bridge.
Buffalo’s excellence carries over to their defense—top1-10 in every important category.
Miami—who could barely score 11 points against the Jets last week--has to hope Rahim Mostert will play with a broken thumb, and third string rookie QB, Skylar Thompson will start in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa.
No further analysis is needed. Miami’s only hope is to witness a Josh Allen melt-down, be in the game in the third quarter, and believe anything can happen.
From my perch, no matter what happens, the Bills will win by at least 17 points…I’m going with the Over…
New York Giants (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings 48 [U] GW
GAME OF THE WEEK
We designated this puppy as our Game of The Week because it’s a contest between the NFL’s One-Score Wonders; of the 34 games these teams have played, only ten were decided by more than one score.
This game promises to be a back and forth fight probably needing overtime to decide the winner.
Minnesota fields a bad defense:
· 31st in Opp. YPG = 388.7
· 31st in Opp. Pass YPG = 265.6
· 30th in Opp YPP – 5.9…
· 30th in Opp. Yards per Pass = 7.3
· 28th in Points Allowed Per Game = 25.1
New York’s defense won’t remind anyone of the ’76 Steelers or ’85 Bears, but it approaches respectability as a mid-tier unit that, interestingly, is Top Five in 3rd Down Defense and Red Zone TDs Allowed.
While Daniel Jones does take a lot of sacks—or his line gives them up—his Int% is the league’s best at 1.15% and the G-Men are 2nd in Giveaways/Game.
In the game of Who Do You Trust? Kirk Cousins would never be my answer. RB, Dalvin Cook might be a good answer but he is banged up—Saquon Barkley is healthy.
Brian Daboll is the more accomplished coach and has done more with less top-end talent—I’m taking the field goal and the Road Dog Giants to Cover. Play the Under…
Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 40.5 [U]
Normally, I would take John Harbaugh over a lot of opponents. His guys almost never come out flat; they play smart football, and they are tough as railroad spikes—but that requires his starting QB, Lamar Jackson is healthy enough to torture that weeks opponent.
Jackson is out. His replacement, Tyler Huntley is banged up—third stringer, Anthony Brown may get the start.
Facts are, the Ravens are a bruised up murder of Crows and in Week Seventeen lost to division rival Pittsburgh and, last week lost by 11 to these very same Bengals. Cincy has won eight straight and Joe Burrow knows what it takes to play February football; we’re fairly sure Skylar Thompson doesn’t.
We got this line when Tyler Huntley was still in the hunt to start—the Spread could ratchet all the way up to 13 if Huntley is out for sure.
Even then, I might still lay the points and go with the Bengals—at 7.5, it’s a no-brainer…. I’ll go with the Sharps and play the Under.