• Gary Porpora

QUARTER POLE BLUES FOR TOO MUCH OF THE NFL...

Fanatics by definition are not rational. I am a Steelers fan.


Therefore, I am not rational--but I will try to be as rational as possible while posting the following: The Steelers, with a victory against the Bengals, another AFC North joke of a team, are right back in the playoff race...


Yeah, I know, Cincy fans can say the same thing--please allow me to continue without the echo of your laughter pounding my eardrums.


The AFC North, projected to be one of the NFL;'s toughest division has turned in to mush. The Magpies were pounded into cube steak in KC last week; their supposedly vaunted defense does not exist--they gave up 8 YPP against the Arrowheads and their per game numbers are no better than the Bengals, (6.4), a tick worse than the Steelers 6.3, and over a full yard worse than the young Browns 5.3.


Of course, averaging 511+ offensive YPG and 6.9 YPP--3rd best in the NFL--the Crows don't need a great defense, and have literally flown into the conversation with the Chiefs as the only legitimate competition to New England.


The Jets and Dolphins are the Pats junior varsity slate. Denver is staring at an awful year, Oakland flat stinks, and the entire AFC South seems to collectively destined to finish 8-8.


There are three good teams and New England in the AFC, five if we're forced to count Houston or Indy.


Things are much better in the NFC. Unfortunately, yet again, the Cowboys are the most over-hyped, over-rated sports team on the planet. They have literally--according to several power rankings--played the three worst teams in the league; NYG, the Natives, and Miami.


The sickening punditry has been lathering Jerrahs's balls as if he has summoned Gil Brandt, Tom Landry, and Roger Staubach via a Ouji board made out of bullshit.


Once again, Jerry and his Cowboys act like a parody of what their fans think they should be--the chosen ones, privileged to play in Dallas, and expecting their stars to take less for the glory of being a Cowboy.


In reality, they are a mediocre organization by any metric we can use--the greatest scam in American sports history.


This week, Dallas will play a Brees-less Saints squad and if they win, the ensuing hype will be unbearable. But, it's a long season and the NFC has eight teams capable of a championship run--I'm betting it won't be the Cowboys.


Now let's get to our Picks...We had a nice Week Three...


AFTER WEEK THREE

Week Three Picks: 10 – 6 2019 Overall Tally: 25 – 21 – 2

Weekly Totals Picks: 3 – 4 Cumulative Totals: 9 - 10

Weekly Specials 3 – 1 Cumulative Specials: 6 – 5 – 1


GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 1

UPSET SPECIAL 1 – 1 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 1 – 2


GAME OF THE WEEK


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS -7 42.5 [O]


It seems every year, The Gairzo has to learn the same hard lesson: Don’t bet against the Patriots!


The numbers back up that commandment—well one number: The Pats under Darth Belichick are 63% ATS—that’s with their huge legion of cheatin’ heart fans and, perennially, their almost assured 5-1 record playing against one of the weakest divisions in sports.


This current incarnation of the Bills has the feel of legitimacy to it. Sean McDermott has talent, great scheming, and his team is starting to believe in itself. Buffalo’s defense is superb—top five in traditional and Next Gen Stats—but, ahem, the Patriots are better, currently topping every defensive stat matrix on the ‘Net.


Surprisingly, the Buffs also have a top ten offense in YPG—but, ahem, New England is better.


Some trends:


  • · The Patriots beat the Bills twice last season, 24-12 at home and 25-6 in Buffalo.

  • · In the Belichick era, the Patriots are 14-4-1 ATS in Buffalo with 12 double-digit wins.

  • · The Patriots are 7-0 SU in their last seven games on the road vs the Bills. (Avg. winning margin: 14.86)

  • · The Patriots are 8-0 SU in their last eight games. (Avg winning margin: 20.63)

  • · The Patriots still haven’t allowed a defensive touchdown this season. Buffalo has a league-worst opponents red-zone TD percentage of 100.

  • · The Patriots are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.

  • · The total has gone OVER in 18 of the Bills' last 25 games at home. (Avg combined score: 46.08)


The public loves the Pats—as they should; the Sharks are taking Buffalo.


Betting against a huge public pick like NE is the sign of a smart bettor—you guessed it—I’m taking the Pats, their sordid history, and their Grim Reaper of a coach—and laying the points.


I‘m playing the Over as well.


Patriots 27 Bills 17


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


WASHINGTON NATIVE AMERICANS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -3 49 [U]


Without Saquon Barkley the Giants and rookie Q B, Daniel Jones regress from a mediocre offensive team to one about equal to the Nates who will start Case Keenum and Adrian Peterson.


Logic says mediocre offenses should dominate awful defenses…


Even if that maxim is true, I just can’t see these two squads combining for over 49 points.


The Under is an easy call here. The honeymoon for Daniel Jones ends in less than a week


We think Washington finds a way to win—take the Points.


Nates 27 Giants 20


UPSET SPECIAL


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ L.A. RAMS -10 50.5 [U]


This is the fourth week of the season. Check out the schedules of every team. Am I the only one who’s thinking, “nobody has played anybody?


Vegas is underestimating Bruce Arians record and impact on his players, and overestimating how good the Rams are.


Defensively, these teams should play below the the Number, it seems way too inflated.


Every few weeks, the books get a game wrong ---this sure seems like one of those games.


I’ll take that 10 point spread and bet the Under for our first Parlay of the year.


Rams 27 Buccaneers 22


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