NFL 2020 WEEK TWO
Last week our picks, as promised, favored established teams with stable ownership/organization, and those with in place coordinators and head coaches and my .750 success rate beat every handicapper on the net.
Every. Single. One.
Normally, an average NFL week has 2-5 “easy” games for bettors. Best example: last week, the Saints were at home against Tampa. Tom Brady isn’t God—God doesn’t cheat—and he’s with a new team, coach and city. The pandemic has made physical practices a low priority and dirt has celebrated fewer birthdays than Ol’ Tom. We won’t know until mid October if Brady is still Brady. The Mateys better address the offensive line deficiencies or Brady will never be Brady again.
Any given week more often than not gives us 10-11 ‘Toss-up” games, meaning analysts can make a case for either team beating the spread. That’s how the boys in Vegas take your money—they drink “the Juice” no matter how many bets are placed.
Don’t forget, the only factor a competent sports book cares about via algorithms, research, and instinct is “The Number” that will assure a plethora of bets are wagered on either side of the Spread.
We are obligated to remind the readers once a year that my picks, for now, are free—and remember, The Gairzo doesn’t select just 3-4 games. He picks every contest, between 4-6 Totals calls and four Blue Plate Specials.
Last week, placing every bet on my sheet, the $100 bettor would have raked in1500.00.
Anyone can have a good week; the best minimize the awful weeks with consistency, quality information, and yes, dumb luck.
Let’s see what's on the Week Two menu…
GAME OF THE WEEK
N.E. PATRIOTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -4 45 [O]
Both of these squads are veteran laden with quality coaching—difference being Pete Carroll doesn’t cheat. Last week, Seattle went about spanking the Falcons in Atlanta, this week they welcome New England who bested a bad Dolphins team in Foxboro.
The Pats rushed for 217 yards last week—at home versus a division rival— and the Dolphins couldn’t stop them or score enough to make them pass.
For week Two, Cam Newton and the Pat’s have to trek across country, with pandemic restrictions and modifications making the journey a general pain in the ass.
Belichick is going to run Cam Newton to the bone until he figures out the 2015 MVP can be trusted to pass efficiently.
The “Hawks had a much more balanced offensive attack but puked up a 500 burger in yards allowed—in Atlanta against Matt Ryan. Belichick might need half a season getting what he needs from Cam, and it’ll be a bumpy ride—but it doesn’t take a genius to know, if you make Newton beat you with his arm, it’s too often a winning strategy for the defense. Newton can be flustered and taken off his game.
Seattle DC, Ken Norton Jr. will stuff the box, go to man coverage on the outside and dare Cam and company to pass their way to a win.
Against the Falcon’s, Carroll wanted to show Russell Wilson, and the NFL, the Seahawks can beat you without a dominant running game.
He’ll prove it again this week.
Even though this is a difficult game to handicap, the Over is a premium play here.
Seahawks 33 Patriots 27
LOCK OF THE WEEK
DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -6 49.5 [U]
Okay, let’s try to forget Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Adam Thielen, and the rest o the Viking’s offense tortured the Green Bay defense to the horrifying tune of 7.8 YPP….
Let’s try to forget Matt Patricia, former defensive coordinator for Cheatin’ Bill Belichick has yet to put a respectable defensive team on the field during two plus years in the Motor City
Let’s try not to remember, in their last 29 trips to Lambeau Field, Detroit has won three times.
Maybe Adrian Peterson will have a great day for Detroit. He is a legend, and last week Green Bay gave up 6.1 YPR, worst in the league. It could happen…
Maybe, but Lions WR, Kenny Golloday is out with a twangy hamstring. (C’mon man…There is no excuse for any professional athlete having soft tissue issues. You’re paid millions of dollars—do some yoga—hire a trainer, buy a Pilates machine…)
If the spread were a full seven, I might consider Detroit, but Aaron Rogers is throwing darts…The Packers…At Lambeau…
The Lions have to show me they are ready to become a complete team—I don’t think they’ve made a lot of progress under Matt Patricia.
Give Detroit the touchdown, we’re playing the Under.
Packers 27 Lions 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
ATLANTA FALCONS AT DALLAS COWBOYS -4.5, 53 [U]
Dallas played just like I thought they would Sunday night—like the most successful failures in sports. Ever wonder why Jerry Jones and his son never talk about the Cowboys culture problem—because they know the cause of that malaise is the elder Jones.
Hey, I’m a fair guy, I’ll give Jerrrah his due—he’s played the business end of the game like a virtuoso. His team is located in Dallas, Texas, yet plays in the NFC East. Every year they are favored, expectations are sky high, but they usually end most every season in the tarry pit of mediocrity. Those kinds of contradictions trickle down throughout the entire organization.
I hope Jerry stays in charge for another 30 years.
Ironically, the Falcons are much closer to what the Cowboys really are—stuck in the same tar pit and seemingly unable to extricate themselves.
We’re betting Mike McCarthy will kick enough of the ‘Boys in their asses to eke out a win against The Birds of Prey—who signed home town hero, Todd Gurley to a mega-contract and who, like Dallas has been trying to put a consistently good team on the field for two decades.
I just don’t see Atlanta pulling this one out—even though the Cowboys are missing a key defensive player at every level. McCarthy’s new offense fits the personnel on the field and Dak Prescott should have a big day against the Falcons lackluster defense.
It's a shoot out—we’re playing the Over.
Cowboys 35 Falcons 30
UPSET SPECIAL
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 48. [O]
Unless you want to bet Tommy Boy and the Bucs can’t cover a 9.5 spread against a defensively weak Carolina team led by a first year coach and a youngish roster, there is no other viable Upset Special on the board.
Without star RB, Marlon Mack, who ripped his Achilles tendon and is out for the year, Indy will spin its wheels on offense and the Vikings will take advantage. I love both of these coaches, but in Week Two, we can’t yet determine how bad or good defenses are, or will be.
New Indy QB, Phillip Rivers was his usual self last week—a ton of yards, a couple picks—and a loss.
The Vikes gave up 360+ yards passing to Aaron Rodgers who was really on his game. The Vikings won’t be the only team scratching their heads after Rodgers torches them this year.
Minny has the more complete team and Indy is without its star runner or raucous home crowd. Dalvin Cook should have a big day.
With Rivers at QB against Cousins, offenses should dominate—take the Over.
Vikings 31 Colts 27
As always, my picks are in bold italics below…
Thursday, September 17
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, 8:20 p.m., NFL Network (CLE -6, 43.5) [U]
Sunday, September 20
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., FOX (LAR -1, 45.5)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m., FOX (TB -9.5, 48.5)
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., CBS (PIT -7.5, 41.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., FOX (DAL -4.5, 53) O/U
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets, 1 p.m., FOX (SF -7, 42.5)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBS (BUF -5.5, 41)
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., FOX (IND -3, 48) US [O]
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m., FOX (GB -6, 49.5) LW [U]
New York Giants at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., CBS (CHI -5.5, 42.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBS (TEN -9, 42)
Washington at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. FOX (ARI -6.5, 46.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, 4:25 p.m. CBS (BAL -7, 52)
K.C. Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m. CBS (KC -8.5, 47.5)
NE Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, 8:20 p.m., NBC (SEA -4, 45) GW [O]
Monday, September 21
New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., ESPN (NO -6, 50.5) [O]