NFL 2022 – WEEK TWO
Won’t be much analysis this week because my boys came down for the game.
We are celebrating my wife’s birthday this weekend.
Many of you know, I’ve always been lucky with the women in my life—and I hit the jackpot again when this beauty, named Yi Ren, came from Tan Shang China for a visit…
I had sent her a letter in the summer of ’17. She answered a few days after wanting to make sure I was looking for a wife. My divorce was not yet final, but lucky for me that wasn’t a deal breaker.
Yi is a smart cookie too—she googled my house, verified I was who and what I said I was. I had just won an award for my Elvis script, but told her I hadn’t yet made the big money deal.
She let me know, she was not interested in money, didn’t need it. Her biggest issue was that we would be in it for the long haul and if I ever cheated on her she would never speak to me again. So far, so good…
She told me she would see me in September, when she would be visiting friends in Sacramento. After a couple more e-mails we didn’t talk or write for a couple months. Sure enough, September rolls around and she texts me asking me to please pick her up at the bus station the next day. I offered to make the trip up north to get her; she refused.
We met at the bus station the next day—and have been together ever since. First thing we did was make a pact never to let her accent or my “accent” keep us from clearly communicating. So far, so good.
Devout Christian, gourmet cook, funny, intelligent, goddamn gorgeous; retired after 30 years working for Budweiser in China. Bilingual loves family and is eons more beautiful on the inside than out—and she thinks I’m fantastic…
Happy Birthday Honey…Love you…
NFL 2022 WEEK TWO
GAME OF THE WEEK
Chicago Bears@ Green Bay Packers -10 49.5 GW [U]
Going against both the public and the trends does not often payoff.
First thing you learn going against the Oddsmakers in Vegas is, well, don’t go against the Oddsmaker in Vegas.
We approach each season thinking teams experiencing the most significant changes are likely to take time before they reveal who they are. The trick is to decipher what specific changes affect each team, and to what degree.
In other words will the loss of his receiving corps impact Aaron Rodgers more than a new coaching staff will impact the Chicago Bears?
If last week is our guide, Packers receivers couldn’t catch a cold in a meat freezer. The Bears looked more disciplined in one game under Matt Eberflus than they ever were in four years with Matt Nagy.
Still, the trends scream Green and Gold:
Chicago is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
Chicago is 4-9 SU in their last 13 games.
Chicago is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against Green Bay.
Chicago is 0-6 SU in their last 6 games against Green Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road.§ Chicago is 0-6 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay.
Chicago is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference.
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference North division.
Chicago is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played in September.
On a more general note, Aaron Rodgers has turned into quite the whiny bitch hasn’t he? Is his contrived diva status infecting the organization? Probably not----but giving a more focused division rival 10 large might work against the Pack this week.
Packers 27
Bears 22
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys +7 42 LW [O]
I know, a seven point Home Dog shouldn’t be in the running as a Lock of the Week loser—but this is Dallas folks, c’mon…
I had trouble finding this puppy and it was sitting right under my nose…
Perfect Week 2 Lock…
Cincy gave the Steelers a pick-six, five total turnovers, missed a short field goal in overtime, had another blocked, and lost by an end of overtime Chris Boswell field goal.
That says several things to me:
Cincy is resilient; well coached and confident. They are a talented group on both sides of the ball—and truly gifted at the skill positions…
The Cowboys have won three playoff games in the last 25 years. They are the most
overrated organization in the history of team sports…
Savvy Cowboy haters and what few intelligent fans Dallas has, can almost feel the pall of gloom descending upon Head coach, Mike McCarty…He, like the many successful men who came to Big D to die as coaches know they were never the HC on the Dallas sideline. They were window dressing for Jerry Jones to prop up, so blame for the Cowboys ineptitude would never be his burden to carry.
Without Dak Prescott the ‘Boys are 5-7--.417—with him .616---but let’s keep it kosher,
Prescott, at no time in his career has been close to great.
Dak is just another clown in Dallas’ rodeo of delusion.
Look for the Bengals to pull away in the 2nd half.
I’m calling the Over.
Bengals 31
Cowboys13
UPSET SPECIAL
Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 51.5 US [U]
I’ll let the following statistical profile speak for itself…
Since 2013, Arizona’s 21 wins as a Road Dog are the NFL standard…
…And they are 8th best ATS…
Conversely—same time frame--the Raiders have been Home Favorites for only 24 games, the league’s 3rd worst mark. They are 15-9 SU in those game—9th worst in the league.
ATS, Vegas is 9-15; good for 37.5%--pretty much scraping the bottom of the NFL barrel.
SU, the Cardinals are top ten in non-conference games—Las Vegas, bottom fiv
ATS, ’Zona wins only 46% of non-conference contests; not to be outdone, the Raiders are seven notches below the Redbirds, winning at only a 14-22 clip—38.9%.
Very rarely do such relevant, long and short-term trends separate two opponents as these trends do.
It’s an easy call—play the Under.
Cardinals 27
Raiders 23
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Bucs @ New Orleans Saints +2½ 44 O/U
Call it wishful thinking, but Tom Brady should have taken Chuck Noll’s infamous advice—if you—or your wife—are thinking about you retiring, you’re already retired. (Italics mine)
In any event, the Mateys Week One snookering of the perennially overrated Cowboys is no more or less impressive than the Holy Men praying their way to a 16 point comeback against Atlanta.
Tampa already lost half of their O-Line, and WR Charles Godwin—and they are getting dangerously thin at receiver. I think New Orleans has the defensive scheme to stop Brady, no matter who is playing.
The Saints Taysom Hill is being touted as an OPOY candidate, but that’s a classic example of a first week overreaction.
Another division game only this one has an apt spread. Here are some trends:
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 road games.
New Orleans is 15-3 SU in its last 18 vs the NFC South.
The UNDER is 6-2 in New Orleans’ last 8 games.
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against New Orleans.
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against New Orleans.
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference.
Tampa Bay is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference South division.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games played in September.
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans' last 8 games.
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans' last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference.
New Orleans is 15-3 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference South division.
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played in September.
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in week 2 Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 road games.
New Orleans is 15-3 SU in its last 18 vs the NFC South.
The UNDER is 6-2 in New Orleans’ last 8 games.
We’re taking the Home Team and the Under, giving less than a field goal to the former Cheater.
Saints 23
Bucaneers 20
As usual my pick are below in bold italics,
NFL Week 2
Thursday, Sept. 15
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 54 [O]
Sunday, Sept. 18
Tampa Bay Bucs @ New Orleans Saints +2½ 44 O/U
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants -2½ 42.5
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens -3½ 43½
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns -6½ 39.5
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions -2 48.5
Indianapolis Colts@ Jacksonville Jaguars +4 45.5
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers +1 42 [O]
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers -8½ 42.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams -10 47.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 51.5 US [O]
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys +7 42 LW
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos -10 43.5
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers -10 49.5 GW [U]
Monday, Sept. 19, 6 p.m., ESPN
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills -10 49.5 [O]
Monday, Sept. 19, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia -2 51.5 [U]