NFL WEEK TWELVE - TNF ATS

 When: Thursday, November 20 at 8:15 pm ET

Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas

Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)

Moneyline: Bills -265, Texans +215

Spread: Bills  (-115), Texans +6 (-105)

Total: Over 43.5 (-115), Under 43.5 (-105)

Buffalo Bills  @ Houston Texans  +6  44.5

We are 5-5-1 on our Thursday ATS picks and 6-5 on our Totals calls.

TNF is a unique challenge to handicap because usually division rivals are on the schedule.   Division games tend to be tighter, and any advantage or disadvantage the shortened week of practice affords either team usually evens out.

However, we can’t fall into the trap of believing any circumstance is determinative for any NFL matchup.  Too many variables--injuries, weather, coaching, records, talent, etc.--make handicapping difficult, and short week games ratchet up that difficulty index...

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•  BUFFALO is 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018

•  BUFFALO is 42-29 ATS (59.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017

•  BUFFALO is 32-26 ATS (55.2%) in road/neutral games since 2019

•  HOUSTON is on a 17-58 SU and 26-48 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010...Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6 at HOU)

•  BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 37-22 Under the total on the road since 2018

•  HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 17-6 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record...Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 43.5)

• Primetime dogs are 18-16 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI this season and 159-142 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI since 2020. Conference primetime dogs are 17-9 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI this season and 121-101 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020.

• Primetime dogs getting 5.5-points or more are 9-5 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI this season and 73-53 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020.

• Houston has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.

• Josh Allen is 25-27 ATS (48%) as a favorite of 5.5-points or more in his regular season career. If favored by 5.5-points or more in a conference game, Allen is just 16-20 ATS (44%).

• The Texans have the edge defensively, allowing just 16.3 PPG (1st in the NFL) while the Bills are giving up 22.9 PPG (14th).

• Primetime unders are 21-16 (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 211-152 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.

• Overs are 85-78 (52%) this season. However, when the total is 44 or less, the over is 35-25 (58%) with an 11% ROI this season. Non-division overs are 63-51 (55%) with a 5% ROI this season.

• The Texans are 7-3 (70%) to the under this season, tied for the 2nd best under team in the NFL. The Bills are even at 5-5.

THE CALL

Tonight’s contest has the Bills coming off a legendary Week 11 home performance from QB Josh Allen: six, 6!! touchdowns in a high-scoring slugfest against the Mateys.  Unfortunately, the Bills needed  Allen’s excellence to bail them out of trouble more than once because their defense gave up 32 points.

No way is Buffalo going to dictate the way this game goes.  Houston’s pedestrian run game should find some breathing room against a Buffalo defense surrendering 5.4 YPR & 153 RYPG--both 2nd worst in the NFL.

The Bills excellent running game should find the going tough against the stout Texans rush defense--top four in the most salient stats.

Look for Houston to slow the action down, keep Allen on the sidelines, or in check, and stay within the Spread throughout.  They’ve been doing just that all year.  Each of their five losses was by eight points or less against quality opposition.  They won by double digits against three quality teams and the Titans.  Their 3-point win against the Titans last week was their closest victory in 2025.

I don’t see the Bills/Allen dominating, even with The Texans’ Davis Mills starting at QB for the concussed CJ Stroud.

Speaking of injuries, both these teams will take the field with a lot of quality talent on the sideline...

I’m taking Houston, six points, and the Under...

Buffalo. 23

Houston 20