NFL 2024 WEEK ELEVEN = 9 - 5 2024 OVERALL. = 93 - 68 - 5 .578
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE = 47 - 29 .618
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 32 - 20 - 3 .615
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 6 LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 4 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 6 – 4 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 - 4
STEELERS 8 - 2 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 79 - 49 - 3 .617
We are keeping it short and sweet because preparations for Thanksgiving weekend will be hectic. My Chinese family is visiting from Tangshan and they can’t wait to have our traditional turkey with sausage stuffing an ravioli with meatballs and sausage...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 50.5 GW [O]
Baltimore’s defense is the worst these eyes have ever seen in the 28-year history of Poe’s Crows. Yes, they are the league’s most formidable running game with the Thunder & Lighting tandem of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
Their balanced attack is the envy of 31 teams--
50.07% On the ground and 49.93% through the air
Producing 430.1 YPG, 7.1 YPP, & scoring 30.4 PPG--all Top Two numbers.
Defensively the Rat Birds have to scavenge for their success:
Surrendering 24.6 PPG (24th), and 362 YPG (26th)...
They are the NFL’s fourth worst 3rd down defense...
Meanwhile the Wicked Harbaugh of the West fields the best scoring defense, allowing just 14.5 PPG. The Bolts are best in defensive efficiency--#1 In Points per Play given up and allowing opponents to tally a mere 1.5 TDs a game--which means teams must work the hardest against the Bolts to put points on the scoreboard.
Third down will tell this much of this game’s tale. The Ravens are number three converting that most important down and San Diego is second at preventing those conversions.
Red Zone Scoring % will be just as crucial. L.J. and company score RZ TDs nearly 78% of the time--by far the NFL’s best. The Electricians are #2 at preventing RZ scores.
These Chargers are not like recent editions, with clueless coaches shorting out potential wins or blowing their chances in the second half.
Jim Harbaugh has plugged himself into an organization that needs exactly what he gave the 49ers in the NFL and the Wolverines in top tier college football--focus, discipline, vision, and the will to win.
We like the Home Dog Bolts and the Over.
Chargers 27
Ravens 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants (+4) 42.5. LW [O]
There isn’t a legitimate LOW on Week Twelve’s slate and Baker Mayfield has played well enough that he should beat a Big Blue squad starting Tommy Devito over season long back-up Drew Lock--as the Big Apple waves a fondless farewell to Daniel Jones... Unbelievable...
The Giants are a steaming hot mess on a cold New York winter sidewalk--and Brian Daboll’s poop bag is bursting at the seams.
We’ll go against my main man, Steve Makinen, at VSIN.com on both calls and take the Mateys to Cover, Over the Total.
Buccaneers 23
Giants 20
UPSET SPECIAL
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (+3) 49 US [U]
Sometimes stats and trends influence a call--but not this game.
I think the Eagles are the most overrated team in the NFL.
Consider: Philly’s Week One neutral site win against Green Bay, the following weeks one-point loss to the Falcon’s, and last week’s eight-point conquest of the Commandoes represent the only three teams with winning records the Bald Birds have faced in 2024.
The rest of their schedule conjures up visions of that case of dented smelly tomato cans I once fetched out of my grandma’s basement.
The Big Horns, meanwhile have been in eight one score games, got blown out by the upstart Cardinals in Week Two--without their receiving corps or defensive line--won by ten versus the Norsemen as part of winning four of their last five. They come into this game with their healthiest offense all year.
Philly has the horses to keep this one close, but we love the Chalk with. Home Dog Rams.
Go with the Under...
Rams. 26
Eagles 22
As usual, all my Specials and Totals pick are below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK 12 ODDS: POINT SPREADS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5) 36.5 O/U
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (+11.5) 41.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+3.5) 40.5
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-7.5) 42
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (+8) 50.5
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-7.5) 45
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants (+4) 42.5. LW [O]
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (-10) 45.5.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) 40.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-1.5) 47.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-1) 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (+3) 49 US
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 50.5 GW [O]
Comments