NFL WEEK THREE - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK TWO =  10 - 6   2025 OVERALL. =  21 - 11  .656

WEEKLY O/U  =  4 - 2     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  8 - 6  

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  4 - 1   CUMULATIVE  =  7 - 3

GAME OF THE WEEK    2 – 0       LOCK OF THE WEEK    2 – 0

UPSET SPECIAL     1 - 1              O/U OF THE WEEK    2 – 0

STEELERS  1 - 1   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  15 - 9  

============================================

GAME OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) 51.5. GW

We still haven’t a clue as to how this game is going to play out.

Lamar Jackson is as an elite talent at QB as we’ve seen this century... 

Then again, Josh Allen is the second coming of Big Ben...

Detroit is getting little love from bettors and Sharps due to their Week One loss to the Pack.  

How will Baltimore recover from blowing that Week One shootout to the Bills?  The Lions won’t be a pushover like the Browns

The stats show very clearly--Jared Goff is crazy good, completing 80% of his passes.  Derek Henry will end up as a GOAT candidate when it’s all said and done, as will Lamar. These defenses surprisingly leave a lot to be desired, though; each giving up 5.5 YPP, and over 70% of the time their two opponents entered the Red Zone, they allowed a TD.

So the Over is almost required in this match-up...

TREND THIS

In John Harbaugh’s 18 year tenure, his Magpies rank 5th as a Favorite and 2nd as a Home Favorite--remember, we give NE no respect.

Since Dan Campbell was hired in 2021, his record as a Road Dog is 6-15-1 (.286)--23rd in the NFL, and 10-23-1 as a Dog, good  for 30.3% and 20th.  I love the guy’s passion, his intensity, and his emotional honesty.

Of course, my Pittsburgh roots require respect for John Harbaugh, while still hating his Ravens with every fiber of my being.

I’ll be rooting against Baltimore on every play, but I have to pick them to Cover the Chalk in this one--Lamar and Henry are going to be a load for any 2025 opponent...

Play that Over...

Ravens 33

Lions 27

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)  45.5. LW [O]

We were on the Chargers the moment they hired Jim Harbaugh; picked them to Cover in the first two weeks and we’re riding the Bolts as far they take us.

We also think this is a value pick for the home team; the line should be a point higher, maybe 1.5.

Denver is a good team, and Sean Payton is an excellent coach, but the Broncos defense is often given too much credit for potential rather than its impact on the game.

We like the Bolts by at least six or more and the Over 

Chargers 30

Broncos  21

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK  

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Giants (+6). 43.5  O/U

Last week, the G-Men took the Cowboys to the last play in OT and lost--but they scored 37 points against the Dallas defense that was supposed to be above average--even without Micah Parsons.

Kansas City fell to 0-2 after getting shocked by the Bolts in L.A in Week One, and stymied in last week’s Super Bowl rematch against the Bald Birds....

All due respect to the Arrowheads tough opening schedule, but nothing they’ve shown so far indicates they are a touchdown better than a Giants group that has a QB in Russel Wilson who still can drop the ball on a dime 50 yards down field.

The Giants are a work in progress and have been too inconsistent under Brian Daboll, and a third consecutive loss could mean his last bite of the Big Apple will come sooner rather than later.

The Chiefs are in the top three in the NFL as a Favorite...a Road Favorite...After a loss..and in inter-conference play...Wow... 

Two desperate teams trying to avoid joining the dreaded “0-3 Start Club” that has seen only 2.4% of it unfortunate members make the playoffs.

The six-point Chalk, given the Giants resurgence with Russell Wilson, is just too much for us to change our pick.

We’ll take the touchdown and the G-Men to Cover--well Over the Number.

Chiefs  27

Giants 23

UPSET SPECIAL

Green Bay Packers (-9) @ Cleveland Browns (+9) 42.5 US [O]

We caught this line on Tuesday and the public bet it down to 7.5 As of Friday...

Game stats in Week Three aren’t as reliable as Week 5 and beyond.  This game will tell us if the Pack is as for real as the pundits think--and if the Cleveland “D” is as stout as their fans think.

We think Cleveland is being dissed for being a shoddy organization.  Deserving as that assessment may be, the Browns have talent on defense to stop a Green Bay squad that might be putting too much stock in its press clippings...

Packers win, Brownies Cover--Over the Total

Packers  26

Browns 20

STEELERS GAME

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (+2)  44 [O]

Anyone who’s read my work knows that since his arrival in the ”BurghI I’ve backed Mike Tomlin to the hilt, but that support is waning.  

• Forget the longest playoff win drought in the last 55 years of Steeler football...  

  
  

• Forget Antonio Brown...

  
  

• Forget Tomlin has taken numerous teams that should have been 6-11, or worse, to the playoffs... 

  
  

• Forget his never having a below .500 season... 

  
  

• Forget Tomlin’s defenses have been top ten in 3rd quarter/second half scoring allowed--meaning the Steelers adjust well in game--in 11 of his 17 HC seasons...

  
  

• Forget those same defenses were top ten in PPP allowed and YPP ten times...

  
  

• Forget if Tomlin retired today, he’s got a HOF resume...

  
  

• Anyone who knows Coach Tomlin immediately understands the man has a vocabulary that Merriam--and Webster--would envy...

BUT...

In the last four NFL campaigns, Tomlin’s defenses cracked the top 15 in all those major defensive categories exactly once...

Even during their futile first 40 years, Pittsburgh was the standard for tough, consistent rushing defense.  But, in the last five full NFL seasons, Mike Tomlin’s rush defenses made the top ten only once...

Nothing angers this Steelers fan more--betting I’m not the only one--than to see Derek Henry and the Murder of Crows flatten the Pittsburgh run defense like a black-top roller on a hot summer day--IN THE F#$KING PLAYOFFS!!!!!!!! FOR 300 YARDS?!!!!

That’s why I can confidently point out Tomlin’s utter stupidity, and there’s no more apt phrase, for saying his highest-paid, old, soft, and cheesy defense could achieve “historic things.”  

Here’s the accurate quote in context:

“We feel really good about the prospects of this group. We’ve got enough talent, we’ve got enough schematics to do big, big things. When I say big things, I’m talking about historic things,” Tomlin said on 102.5 WDVE, as transcribed by Bryan DeArdo of CBS Sports.

You know what coach--STFU!  Let your coaching and the players in the arena do the talking.  You should damn well know better.

BTW, Coach--From 2007 to 2012--your first six seasons--your defenses yielded more than 5.0 YPP only once, (5.05 In 2009). Since 2013--twelve campaigns--your defenses have yielded more than 5.0 YPP TEN times  

That’s the history you should be most concerned about.

THE GAME

Mike Vrabel made the Titans respectable during his six years as head coach in Nashville; he never had an elite QB or a truly elite player on either side of the ball. 

Like Mike Tomlin, Coach Vrabel usually gets the most out of his players. His Patriots, albeit the small two-week sample size, seem to be trending up, gaining more than half a yard per play than Pittsburgh.

Both defenses stink badly, Pittsburgh 29th yielding 6.3 YPP a couple spots ahead of The Pats at 6.6...

We're looking at a high-scoring game with Aaron Rodgers and Drake May battling it out.

I don’t believe Pittsburgh should be even a Short Favorite against any NFL team until they prove their talent meets their expectations--we’re calling the Over...

***Again, we pass on most Steelers games because of our emotional, life-long ties to the team and city.   Keep that in mind.**** 

Steelers 24

Patriots 23

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...

NFL WEEK 3 ODDS: POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS 

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-12.5)  49.5 [U]

Atlanta Falcons () @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5) 43.5

Green Bay Packers (@ Cleveland Browns (+9) 42.5 US [O]

Houston Texans @  @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) 44.5 

Cincinnati Bengals  @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) 43.5

Pittsburgh Steelers) @ New England Patriots (+1)  44 [O]

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) 45.5  

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)  44.5

Indianapolis Colts) @ Tennessee Titans (+3) 43.5 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders (-6.5). 47.5 

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)  45.5. LW [O]

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) 41.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears (+1.5) 48.5

Arizona Cardinals  @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)  43.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Giants (+6). 43.5  O/U

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) 51.5. GW  [O]