NFL WEEK THREE
NFL WEEK THREE 2021
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK TWO
Week Two Tally: 8 – 8 2020 Overall Tally: 13 – 19
Week Two Totals 3 – 2 Cumulative Totals: 6 – 4
Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 4 -4
GAME OF THE WEEK 0 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 1 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 0 O/U OF THE WEEK 1 – 1
PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 6 – 4 PARLAYs 0 – 1
GOAT? Brady?... Montana?... Who Else?
I think it’s time for a rant—on a subject the Gairzo has yet to rant about…
After, as always, acknowledging Tom Brady’s documented record of cheating to gain a competitive advantage, we also have admit the man is a marvel and in serious contention for GOAT status.
But, as one of my more astute ‘Burgh Brothers From Another reminds me, the ‘Burgh’s own Joe Montana attempted 122 passes threw 16 TDs and had zero picks in four Super Bowl appearances; not to mention a 127.8 passer rating.
Not because I’m a homer, but because I know a great QB when I see one, if you gave me first pick among the 90 or so quarterbacks to play the last game of the year, I’m picking Terry Bradshaw.
Here’s a short list to answer why:
· His arm was the only one comparable to Elway’s…
· He was as tough as any QB in the games history…(Ask Joe “Turkey” Jones.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2TY0cKwdD4
Here’s a SB stat few people credit to Bradshaw:
· Highest average gain, career (40 attempts), 11.10 yards
· Highest average gain, game (20 attempts), 14.71 yards
Ol’ Terry wasn’t throwing in no dink and dunk West Coast offense.
Also forgotten: without any doubt, Bradshaw played stiffer competition than any Super bowl QB. Think about it, Miami, Dallas, and Raider fans—deluded as they may be—can all make legit arguments that they were the real “team of the ‘70s.”
In the six year span in which Chuck Noll’s Steelers won four Super Bowls, they played those three wannabees at least once in five of those years, going 5-1, losing to only to Oakland in the 1976 AFCCG.
In fact, if you examine the four SB-less postseasons from ’72 to ’79, the Steelers only lost playoff games to either Miami or Oakland—the 1977 Broncos being the lone exception.
Now, add the very close second tier of ‘70s NFC teams—Minnesota and the original L.A. Rams--who lost a SB to Pittsburgh, and the point is cemented.
Compare the ‘70s Steelers playoff level of competition to Brady and Montana’s. Belichick beat exactly one team that would have given any of the aforementioned1970s teams a decent game—Seattle.
If you give Malcom Butler and Belichick credit for knowing the play and executing that memorable SB interception, you are then obliged to credit Pete Carroll for the worst play call in NFL post-season history.
I do love me some Joe Montana but two games against Cincy…one each against Miami and Denver?
You play Bradshaw in today’s powder puff version of the NFL and he’d make Tommy Boy look like Timmy Couch.
I feel better now, thanks…
GAME OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ L.A. Rams + 1.5 55.5 [U]
With great play at QB, elite offensive lines, deep, dependable receiving corps, versatile tight ends and great coaching, it’s no wonder this is our GOTW.
It’s also the Special we are most unsure of. These squads are about as evenly matched as you’ll find on any given weekend—again, perfect for a GOTW.
Match-up stats indicate a slight offensive edge to the Mateys and a significant slant defensively for the Big Horns. Tampa Bay is a parrot’s eyelash shy of averaging 40 PPG for the young 2021 campaign; if that sample is too small for you, in their last ten games the new Brady bunch averages a paltry 35.
However, I don’t think Brady is the only elite quarterback in this game.
Matt Stafford’s back should be broken; he carried 52 Lions for 13 seasons.
After the trade that sent him to the coast costing L.A. two firsts+, I knew the man would play like a kid in a China shop without all the bullshit, (how’s that for a mixed metaphor?)…
Until he got traded to the Big Horns, I always believed the former Georgia standout was the most wasted talent at quarterback since Bert Jones. Check out tthe NFL.com highlights against the Colts last week—exactly the kind of game Detroit would inevitably lose during Stafford’s tenure.
The Rams bring the fiercest defender in he NFL, Aaron Donald, their young coach—finally over puberty—is one of the games true innovators. The entire Los Angeles organization is one of the leagues most promising, dynamic, and daring in the NFL.
I’m taking the useless point, looking at a high-scoring affair—and the biggest win of Stafford’s career. The defenses will slow the offenses just enough to tickle the Number—that means Play the Under.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 51.5 [U]***
I hope Trevor Lawrence emerges from his 2021 baptism by fire and fulfills the potential the football world thinks he has. We pray he stays healthy.
Keeping it real, these Jags-off are a bad football team. Urban Meyer might be able to squeeze 2-3 wins out of them, but I just don’ see much else. Here is a sample of how bad Jax is:
· One of eight teams to average under 5 YPP on offense
· One of seven teams to average under 75 YPG rushing
· They give up 128 RYPG, 6.0 YPP…
Despite letting Dalvin Cooke run for a buck-30 last week, the Red Birds held Kirk Cousins to 244 passing yards and have seven sacks on the season. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury are developing a very productive air assault in the desert—and the secondary, without Patrick Peterson, might be better.
BEWARE! This is the kind of scenario—the public and the Sharks leaning heavy on the hot favored team—that could end up being one of those inexplicable NFL games that blows the bettors to bits. It probably doesn’t help that Arizona is 4-10 as an ATS favorite under Kingsbury—however they are 2-2 as an ATS away favorite.
Sorry, but we’re I’m not buying any of the Jaguars just needed Meyer crap. They stink. Since 2016 Jax has the worst non-conference record in football.
Teddy Bridgewater and Tyrod Taylor put 60 points on the Jags—Kyler Murray is more talented, Kingsbury is a better play caller—and this one’s a Lock.
The Number seems too high to me. I’m playing the Under.
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 44 [O]***
Let this be a lesson to your resident moron---check the injury reports before you bet…I knew both QBs were slightly injured in Week Two; I didn’t know Tua was a scratch until after I placed my bet on this one…
Follow this analysis at your own peril. In fact, my advice is to stay away from this wager.
The Fish have dominated Vegas wherever they played. During their last ten games, the Raiders have managed just 2 wins against 8 losses giving up 158 rushing yard per game.
Sorry, but I just don’t get everyone jumping on the Fish’s boat because they put a Week One, 17-burger on the Pats in Foxboro.
Tua TaGlaviola is officially out with sore ribs and Derek Carr is nursing an ankle twister suffered last week in Pittsburgh. Jacoby Brisset, who performs well wherever he plays, will take Tua’s place. Last I checked Carr will play.
Pundits are saying that’s why the models and public are saying this is a three-point game and scoring will be low due to injury. Miami’ giving up 134 RYPG, they play tough for Flores; I respect that, but Vegas found its footing against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Eye-Patches made two very proud, talented defenses—even if both riddled with injury—look very pedestrian.
With Henry Ruggs at WR with 4.4 speed, the Raiders can pound defenses with the short air game featuring TE Darren Waller then strike long with Ruggs.
We’re staying with the Over as a way of beating ourselves up for not re-checking the Injury Report.
L.A. Chargers @ K.C. Chiefs -7.5 54.5 [O]***
Easiest call on the board. The Chiefs defense is bad—last in YPP and YPG given up.
Offensively, the Chiefs are elite—and the Bolts aspire to that status.
Still we can’t deny the intensity and familiarity of a division game—such matchups tend to be lower scoring—but K.C. doesn’t really have a defense and with Joey Bosa out and Derwin James hobbling on an ankle, the Bolts don’t have one either.
I’ll take 7.5 points and the Chargers against any team in the league.
The Over is a safe play in this one.
Week Three Parlay:
· Jaguars/Cardinals under 51½
· Chargers +7
· Dolphins/Raiders over 44
The rest of my picks are below in bold italics…
Thurs., Sept. 23
Panthers (-4, 44.5) @ Texans [O]
Sunday, Sept. 26
Colts @ Titans (-5.5, 48.5)
Falcons @ NY Giants (-2.5, 48.5)
Chargers @ Chiefs (-7, 54.5) US [O]
Bengals @ Steelers (-3, 43) [U]
Bears @ Browns (-7, 44.5)
Ravens (-7.5, 50) @ Lions
Saints @ Patriots (-3, 42.5)
Cardinals (-7.5, 51.5) @ Jaguars LW [U]
Washington @ Bills (-7, 48)
NY Jets @ Broncos (-10.5, 42.5)
Dolphins @ Raiders (+3.5, 44) O/U
Seahawks @ Vikings (-1.5, 48)
Bucs @ Rams (+1, 55..5) GW [O]
Packers @ 49ers (-3, 50.5) [O]
Monday, Sept. 27
Eagles @ Cowboys (-3.5, 51.5) [U]