NFL WEEK THIRTEEN - PICKS ATS
- Gary Porpora
- Nov 27, 2025
- 6 min read
NFL 2025 WEEK TWELVE = 9 - 4 - 1 2025 OVERALL. = 95 - 81 - 3
WEEKLY O/U = 6 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE = 47 - 40
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 1 - 1 CUMULATIVE = 30 - 29 - 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 6 LOCK OF THE WEEK 7 – 5
UPSET SPECIAL 6 - 6 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 – 5
STEELERS/OTHER 4 - 7 - 1 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 77 - 69 -1
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Happy Thanksgiving to everyone--May God Bless you with a happy, peaceful holiday...
We had another excellent week; one more will get us out of the hole...
We’re going to approach Thanksgiving weekend a little differently. Our Specials and Totals calls will carry the same weight, but we’re going to meld our Thursday and Sunday posts into one you're about to read...
When: Thursday, November 27th at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Channel: FOX
Moneyline: Lions -142, Packers +120
Spread: Lions -2.5 (-112), Packers +2.5 (-108)
Total: Over 48.5 (-115), Under 48.5 (-105)
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions -2.5 48.5 [U]
Since 2021 Lion’s HC, Dan Campbell is 16-7 in the NFC North, and nobody uses revenge as a motivating tool more often--or more successfully than Campbell.
The Lions are also 5-0 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss under Campbell.
Overall, his Lions are16-3 ATS when when looking to avenge a loss., The former stand out tight end turned Head Coach, who made his bones with Sean Payton, has flipped the culture in Detroit and made the Lions a force to be respected.
In his last four starts, Green Bay’s Jordan Love has thrown two touchdowns. The loss of TE, Tucker Kraft to an ACL tear has cost the Pack offense dearly.
The Jungle Kings are at home trying to split the season series; they lost 27-13 at Green Bay in Week One.
Since then, they’ve played a tougher schedule with no bad losses.
We’ll lay the Chalk--I think the Lions have more roster-wide talent, and should control the pace in this one.
These defenses are decent; in a divisional game, on a short week, we’ll go with the Under.
Lions 26
Packers 21
GAME OF THE WEEK
When: Thursday, November 27th at 4:30 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Channel: CBS / Paramount+
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Odds
Moneyline: Chiefs -180, Cowboys +150
Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-105), Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys -3.5 51.5 GW [O]
This is a tough game to handicap. KC has looked a bit off all year. Mahome’s passes aren’t as accurate; the OL and DL just aren’t winning the battles as often as in years past.
Dallas is still the same dog-assed team they’ve been since 1997
4-12 in the playoffs
Four Wild Card wins...
No divisional or championship wins...
Conclusion: America’s Team Sucks...
BUT....the ‘Boys have a great 34-22-1- Turkey Day record which is a tick above 60% As a Home Dog, though, they are a 1-10 disaster.
From Zachary Cohen over at VSIN.com:
Kansas City is also 32-22-1 against the spread as a road favorite of 7 or fewer under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are also 14-9 ATS when coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse with Reid on the sidelines.
The Arrowheads also have the better QB, although Dak is statistically superior so far this year. KC also fields the stingier defense, a Mount Rushmore coach, and the far more impressive recent history.
We’re taking the field goal with the Chiefs, and calling the Over--should be a shootout...
Chiefs 31
Cowboys 27
LOCK OF THE WEEK
When: Thursday, November 27th at 8:20 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland
Channel: NBC / Peacock
Moneyline: Ravens -360, Bengals +285
Spread: Ravens -7 (-110), Bengals +7 (-110)
Total: Over 51.5 (-110), Under 51.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens -7 51.5 LW
Seems the Gairzo is off the mark on this match-up. Tons of money is on Cincy to Cover the Spread, mostly because Joe Burrow is returning this week from a turf toe.
I don’t see it. True, the Ravens, on both sides of the ball, are not up to their standards so far this year. Lamar Jackson has been playing with his own toe issues, the defense has lost significant intensity due to lack of cohesion caused by M*A*S*H* unit injuries, yet nobody mentions, a lot of players have been returning from injury; this week, the Magpies get S, Kyle Hamilton, back.
Baltimore’s injury updates here:
Meanwhile, in the Queen City, the Bengals defense is putrid--the worst or second worst in nearly every important stat. The Striped Cats won’t get better against this Murder of Crows
The Ravens have been breathing down AFC North’s neck all year, waiting to get their stars healthy and on the field. They should be able to easily secure this divisional victory and springboard into the playoffs.
Magpies win in a rout we’re calling the Under.
Ravens 37
Bengals 13
UPSET SPECIAL
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns +6.5 40.5 US [ U]
We’ve made a lot of scratch by giving the Cleveland defense the respect it has earned this year....
I snatched this Line early on Monday, because I had the Spread closer to five. Obviously, the right call; just saw a couple books now have that exact number.
San Fran is a good team, their management is outstanding---and they have returned a lot of top talent from injury, though Fred Warner is still out with an ankle. They have the talent to break this game open, but these Browns can play solid, consistent defense. IF Shedur Sanders can give them even a low spark, the Browns will stay close in a lot of games.
Take the Points, bet the Under...
Niners 20
Browns 16
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles -7 44.5 O/U
Two 8-3 squads meet at the Linc in Philly and, again, each seems to be inching in the opposite direction. Chicago ticking up and the Bald Birds inching down..
The stats show Da Bears are much improved compared to their earlier 2025 incarnations. They’ve won eight of their last nine contests--albeit against much weaker opponents than Philly--and last week held off the schizo-Steelers, managing to fly out of the ‘Burgh with a three-point victory.
The Eagles flew headfirst into their asses after blowing a 21-point lead against the hated Cowboys. I just can’t get why A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts haven’t been able to connect more often. Brown is supposed to be the #1 receiver, yet DeVonta Smith has a couple hundred more yards and a 1.5+ advantage in YPC... Very strange stuff. Hurts might be the problem and the talented offensive line isn’t the force they were advertised to be.
The Spread is 1.5 Points too high in our view. We’ll go with the Eagles winning the game with the Underdog Ursines Covering the Spread--the Over is our Totals call.
Eagles 26
Bears 21
STEELERS
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers +3 47.5. [O]
This die-hard Pittsburgh fan is as frustrated as the next. The Steelers wavering from a mediocre team that struggles some weeks, to a team that looks like they could make a playoff run, is maddening.
They don't throw over the middle, still have communication issues high school coaches resolve; still have opposing players saying, "We know what they're doing...It's the same thing over and over."
You would think the league's highest-paid defense would tackle better, disguise coverages with greater deception, blitz more, or more judiciously. You would think a HOF QB would insist not using the middle of the field makes an offense predictable and "pablumatic."
Yes, we know, since Mike Tomlin was hired Pittsburgh is the NFL's best performer as an Underdog, or a Home Dog Straight Up or Against The Spread.--a truly remarkable stat.
Buffalo's defense is just as inconsistent, their roster isn't superior, their OLs and DLs are just as banged up and "schizophrenic." But Buffalo has one thing every opponent wishes they had--
Josh Allen...
Let's tempt fate: Lay the three points and watch the Bills win by six--Over the Number...
Bills 26
Steelers 20
As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions -2.5 48.5 [U]
Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys +3 51.5 GW [O]
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens -7 51.5 LW [U]
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles -7 44.5 O/U
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers -9.5 46.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns +6.5 40.5 US [ U]
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts -3.5 44.5
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins -6 41.5
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets +2.5 39.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 45.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans +6.5 41.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks -9.5 42.5
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 41 [O]
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers +3 45.5. [O]
Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders +6.5 43.5 [U}
New York Giants @ New England Patriots 46.5. 7.5. [U]
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