NFL WEEK THIRTEEN PICKS ATS
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU WEEK TWELVE
WEEK ELEVEN ATS 7 – 8 – 1 2020 Overall ATS 90 – 85 - 2
Weekly Totals 4 - 5 Cumulative Totals: 33 – 43 – 3
Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 26 – 23 – 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 10 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 7
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 8 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 – 6 – 1
PREMIUM PICKS 6 – 7 CUMULATIVE 59 – 66 – 4
WEEK THIRTEEN PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
CLEVELAND BROWNS (8-3) @ TENNESSEE TITANS (8-3) -5.5 53.5 [O]
The records---stat splits, matchup and efficiency stats--in this baby indicate we’re about to see a good game between two playoff worthy teams, fielding the two best rushing attacks in the NFL.
Somehow, at some point in time, right before my very eyes, Ryan Tannehill went from a virtual first round bust to legitimate franchise QB. Drafted 8th overall in 2012, by the Dolphins, Tannehill never quite became the QB the Fish wanted him to be. To be fair Tannehill never had the O–Line and supporting cast, or coach he needed to thrive as an NFL passer.
Last year he was well into the “journeyman” career path when Mike Vrabel saw enough of Marcus Mariota and started Tannehill in Week Six.
Like a QB version of Cinderella, Tannehill initially morphed into the dreaded “game manager” continuing that transformation all the way to becoming a “top ten NFL QB.” The former Texas A & M star is 6th in QB rating, and has completed 65% of his passes for 23 TDs against 4 INTs.
Obviously, the shoe fit.
Of course, I could be a pretty good NFL QB if I had a bulldozer who ran a 4.5 forty in my backfield. Derek Henry almost makes it uncomfortable to watch as he methodically beats down opponents during each game. Defenses start out all excited when they stop the big man in the first half.
After that, viewers feel bad for linebackers and DBs who simply stop wanting to step in front of a 260 pound freight train who has the moves to juke defenders out, but would much rather run them over.
Baker Mayfield’s trajectory is starting to look a little like Tannehill’s in his first few years—except he might have two backs that make-up the NFL’s best rushing attack—Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb averages over 6—that’s SIX—(6.3) YPC.
The Browns get Myles Garret back, they have the more dynamic game breaker at receiver in Jarvis Landry, and the Gairzo is going against the public and the Sharps by betting on Baker Mayfield to out duel Ryan Tannehill—Over the Number.
Browns 30 Titans 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-7-1) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-3) -8.5 46.5 [U]
With doubts about Carson Wentz’ future as a franchise QB swirling around Philadelphia like wind swept pages of our abused Constitution, the Eagles limp into Lambeau facing a top three NFL offense lead by Aaron Rodgers.
We are 9-3 this year on our Packer picks and we won’t be jumping off that train anytime soon. Give Aaron Rodgers a decent group of receivers, a top ten rushing game, and a top three offensive line to protect him and his Packers will be vying for an NFC championship every year.
In Philly, pundits are putting too much blame on Wentz. The O-Line is below the standard, the play calling has been inconsistent—just like the overall performance of the line, and Wentz is under pressure on seemingly every passing down.
Rule #1: when you finally get your franchise QB, the next priority is acquiring an offensive line equally as talented—to protect your most valuable investment. At 3-7-1 the Bald Birds have to be ecstatic they could still host a home playoff game if they win the NFL’s most putrid division. How putrid?
This is not a must win for Philly.
Even against a defense playing good football—the Eagles have held teams to under 20 points in the last month—Rodgers should have an easy time scoring. We see a double digit win for the Pack—bet the Under.
Packers 30 Eagles 15
BUFFALO BILLS (8-3) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (5-6) +1 48 [U]
The Niners have 20— twenty!—players on injured reserve but Deebo Samuels returned last week against the Rams and BOOM, the Niners looked like a team still in the hunt for a playoff spot—which they are.
The return of the Prospectors running game has taken pressure off the passing game with Nick Mullens at the helm and all of a sudden the Bay area gets to root for a complete team.
In the Year of the Virus, NoCal Residents, however, will have to watch their football team play it’s home games in Arizona.
I love the Bills. Sean McDermott is one of the finest coaches in then league, but the Bills defense was supposed to dominate this year—or at least be more of a factor. If Buffalo doesn’t make post-season noise, their very average defense will be the reason why.
Offense-wise, Josh Allen is nicked up, as mobile QBs will always be—and the running game—also thought to be arrowing up—is as pedestrian as the Bills defense.
We’re betting the San Fran’s defense controls Allen and his offense—making the AFC East and NFC Wild-Card Races very interesting.
We’ll take the point and bet the Under…
Niners 26 Bills 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
DALLAS COWBOYS (3-8) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-6) -10 44.5 [O]
No secret wisdom for this one folks. For all intent and purposes, Dallas has just had a Covid-aided bye. Mike McCarthy is 75-52 in games after his team’s bye weeks, and since 2003 Dallas ranks 7th in the league after their bye week, (13-7).
And like the lowly Eagles, Giants, and Washingtons, the Cowboys are still in the thick of the hunt for a division title. If Dallas has the pride their obnoxious fans believe they do, they’ll come out playing their best game of the year.
They’ll need to.
The Murder of Crows, AKA Baltimore’s NFL representative is libel to be in a foul mood after missing an opportunity last Wednesday to derail the undefeated Steelers—a game in which the Magpies were missing almost every skill player on their roster.
It’s easy to hate John Harbaugh, he who holds the title for having the most punchable face in America—he has coached the Ravens for14 years—but any serious fan is compelled to respect him as a football coach.
His Baltimore Ravens should be fully manned and both teams have a lot to fight for.
The Spread is too high to go with the Ravens; we’ll take the 10 spot and the ‘Boys to Cover—but lose on a late field goal—Over the Number.
Ravens 29 Cowboys 27
My picks are below in bold italic…
Sunday Dec. 6
New Orleans @ Atlanta + 2.5 44.5 1 p.m.
Detroit @ Chicago -3 44.5 1 p.m.
Indianapolis @ Houston +3 51 1 p.m.
Cincinnati @ Miami -11.5 42.5 1 p.m.
Jacksonville @ Minnesota - 10 52.5 1 p.m.
Las Vegas @ New York Jets + 9 47 1 p.m.
Cleveland @ Tennessee -5.5 53.5 1 p.m. GW [O]
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona - 3 48 4:05 p.m.
New York Giants @ Seattle -10 46.5 4:05 p.m.
Philadelphia @ Green Bay -8.5 46.5 4:25 p.m. LW [O]
New England @ Los Angeles Chargers -1 47.5 4:25 p.m.
Denver @ Kansas City -14 51 8:20 p.m. (SNF) [U]
Monday Dec. 7
Washington @ Pittsburgh -7 42.5 5 p.m. [O]
Buffalo @ San Francisco +1 48 8:15 p.m. US [U]
Tuesday Dec. 8
Dallas @ Baltimore -10 45 8:05 p.m O/U
Bye: Carolina Tampa Bay