NFL WEEK THIRTEEN 2021
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK TWELVE
Week Twelve Tally: 4 – 11 2021 Overall Tally: 83 – 97
Week Twelve Totals 5 – 3 Cumulative Totals: 48 – 25
Weekly Specials 0 – 4 Cumulative Specials: 26 – 18
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 8 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 7
UPSET SPECIAL 9 – 3 O/U OF THE WEEK 8 – 4
PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 74 – 43 PARLAYS 1 – 3
GAME OF THE WEEK
L.A. Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 49.5) GW [U]
This matchup features two of the AFC’s Young Gun QBs in LA’s Justin Herbert and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow. Herbert has been inconsistent, flashing brilliance one quarter, and making rookie mistakes the next.
Joe Burrow should scare every AFC North fan, especially Steelers fanatics.
During Pittsburgh's near five decades of pre-eminence in the NFL, there have been down times when conference foes—after a huge win against the Steelers, stomped on the Terrible Towel, proclaimed the Steelers dead, or publicly mocked them. That’s football. The Steelers invariably made a lot of people eat crow.
But this time, with this kid, on a team the Men of Steel have owned for most of the last fifty years…It feels different…Like Burrow has a chunk of kryptonite in his pocket…
Here’s Burrow after the rout of Pittsburgh:
When I first saw Burrow at this presser, I thought he was someone else, because he looked a little stoned—I couldn’t remember who…
Then it hit me, Goat Boy echoed in my memory—or was it Joe Pesci…
Joe Burrow is a dead ringer for this guy:
Go to the 1:35 mark when the former number one pick from LSU is asked to measure the significance of beating the Steelers: “...We’re 2-0 against them; we have higher aspirations than beating the Steelers….”
The Cincinnati Kid wasn’t cocky or disrespectful in any way, but he has a look about him, like Steve McQueen in the movie classic of the same name: like he has the hole card to complete a royal flush to beat the best in the world.
The hand Burrow’s been dealt is promising. The Bengals have a sneaky good running game featuring Joe Mixon, field the fourth best rush defense in the NFL and seem to be getting hot at the right time.
Last week, the Bengals made a statement to the AFC North that they will be all in for the division title, for at least the next decade. This week they’ll let the rest of the NFL know they have the chips and the talent to make the playoff tournament for a long time to come.
Joe Mixon rumbles for a buck-fitty, Burrow takes care of the ball.
Cincy wins big—Under the Number.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 45.5) @ Seattle Seahawks LW [U]
Listening to Brady Quinn in his role as an analyst with CBS.com, the one-time Notre Dame and Browns QB knows why Seattle and Russell Wilson—who just returned from finger surgery—will be sitting out of this year’s playoffs. Apparently, the Mighty Quinn experienced almost the exact injury Wilson just suffered and also required very similar surgery.
According to Quinn, the lingering effects of that surgery contributed to the downward trajectory of his career, because, the football never felt the same in his hand and he never again felt comfortable throwing it.
Of course, we don’t know if BQ is whistling past the graveyard of his own career—critics often said he wilted in the big games—but if you saw Russell Wilson throw the ball the last couple weeks, it looks wobbly out of his hand and accuracy has been an issue.
In San Fran, the Jimmy Handsome soap opera is still unfolding, but the Niners are looking like a team that could have a say in the NFC West before the year is over. It helps to be the second best team as an ATS Away Favorite since 2013. It also helps the vaunted 12th Man has seen their favorite Gulls post a tepid 4-4 record as a Home Dog using those same criteria.
Seattle gives up more YPG than any other team, they can’t run the ball, the O-Line offers their QB little protection, their pass defense stinks—and Wilson is hurting.
Even with Deebo Samuels groin keeping him out, the Niners have enough juice to run Seattle into the ground.
The ‘Hawks saving grace has been their 6th rank scoring defense, but eventually bend-but-don’t-break defenses break.
We think it happens this week in the Wild West…
Take the Gold Miners to dominate, just Under the Total.
N.E. Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-3, 48) US [O]
Don’t look now, folks—but the New England Patriots are the NFL’s hottest team, riding a six game winning streak—and everything is going the way Belichick has always made it work—cheating aside.
We’re going with New England to win outright because Buffalo has been bi-polar all year even though their defense compares superbly with the Pats.
Buffalo’s young stud QB is a star in the making—but like Herbert in Los Angeles, he’s been a bit inconsistent.
The Pats Mac Jones looks like a clone of Tom Brady: careful with the ball, knows defenses, can use his legs if necessary, and doesn’t get flustered.
Sharp bettors are predicting a Buffalo Cover based on Josh Allen’s 11 touchdowns in prime time games. Everyone and their mommy is taking the Under; I think the Pats are going to keep it close enough to Cover, if not win outright--and just to be contrary, I'm calling the Over.
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Jets (+ 5.5, 45) O/U
These teams combined have eight wins. In the Eagles five victories, they scored over 30 or more points four times, the Jets posted managed the feat only once, in their inexplicable win over Cincy.
In the Airplanes eight losses, they managed to score 20 or more points only twice. Philly topped 24 points only once in six losses.
With Jalen Hurts iffy to even play and the Jets, Zach Wilson nursing a bad knee, both teams will have to rely on the running game.
For the Eagles that’s kind of hard to do when your QB is the most productive rusher on the team--even harder when he's not playin.
This has "snoozer of the week" written all over it. I just don’t see a lot of points.
The rest of my picks in bold italic…
Thurs., Dec. 2
Cowboys @ Saints (-3.5, 50) [U]
Sunday, Dec. 5
NY Giants @ Dolphins (-3.5, 45.5)
Colts (-10, 49) 44.5 @ Texans
Vikings (-7.5, 46.5) @ Lions
Eagles @ NY Jets (+5.5, 45) O/U
Broncos @ Chiefs (-10, 47.5)
Cardinals (-7.5, 42.5) @ Bears
Bucs (-11, 50.5) @ Falcons
Football Team @ Raiders (-1.5, 48.5)
Jaguars @ Rams (-13, 48)
Ravens (-4.5, 44.5) @ Steelers
Chargers (-3, 49.5) @ Bengals GW [U]
49ers (-3, 45.5)@ Seahawks LW [U]
Monday, Dec. 6
Patriots @ Bills (-3, 48) US [O]