NFL WEEK TEN PICKS - ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK NINE =  7 - 7    2025 OVERALL. =  69 - 67

WEEKLY O/U  =  4 - 3     O/U CUMULATIVE  = 32  - 33  

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  2 - 3   CUMULATIVE  =  23 - 22

GAME OF THE WEEK   5 – 4       LOCK OF THE WEEK    6 – 3

UPSET SPECIAL     4 - 5              O/U OF THE WEEK    5 – 4

STEELERS/OTHER  3 - 6   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  55 - 55

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GAME OF THE WEEK

When: Sunday, November 9 at 8:20 pm ET

Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California

Channel: NBC

Moneyline: Chargers -162, Steelers +136

Spread: Chargers -3.5 (-105), Steelers +3.5 (-115)

Total: Over 45.5 (-105), Under 45.5 (-115)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers  -3.5  44.5. GW  [U]

Lot of money on the Road Dog Steelers in this one.  Not because of the roster, L.A. has tons of talent, but the Bolts have been bitten by the injury bug worse than helicopters in King Kong’s pie-hole.

L.A.’s top two tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, and stud rookie running back, Omarion Hampton, are out--and that’s going to make things very dicey for the sixth overall pick in 2020, quarterback Justin Herbert.  

Unfortunately, for Pittsburgh , Herbert is good enough to overcome any and all obstacles the football gods throw at him--which is just about equivalent to Mike Tomlin’s proclivity to exploit an opponenmt’s weaknesses.

Matt Youmans over at VSIN.com unearthed these little nuggets:

Mike Tomlin has also been very good in these games in his career, as he’s 79-55-6 against the spread with lines between +3 and -3. He’s also 42-31-2 ATS as a road underdog, and he’s 39-24-2 ATS as a road underdog of 7 or fewer points. Meanwhile, as head coach of Los Angeles, Jim Harbaugh is just 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS when coming off a road game.

More game-specific analysis tells us the Steelers poor defensive stats are likely due to injuries accrued on the back seven and adjusting to new secondary personnel.  Their most pressing concern is getting the Bolts off the field on third down.  Pittsburgh’s 24th ranking in that stat has to have Jim Harbaugh and Herbert licking their lips.

Remember though, stats don’t mean squat after kick-off.

As a Steeler fan we know the team's absolute domination of Indy last week--five turnovers--can’t last the whole season, but what they can sustain is a rush defense that stymied a top offensive line and a great running back in Jonathan Taylor.

Wishful thinking?  Maybe, but with Jalen Ramsey settling in at safety, the line backing corp now healthy, deep, and dominating--and a coaching staff seemingly committed to “simplifying” the schematics, the Steelers may be onto something defensively.

And... A-A-Ron Rodgers has turned out to be a much more positive factor for his new team than many of us predicted.  Even without a legit number two wideout, he can make defenses look bad.  They should also be able to run the ball on a Bolts defense giving up 4.9 yard per rush. 

I’m looking for the Men of Steel to slow the game down, rush efficiently, and minimize Herbert’s greatness.

Take the Chalk with the Steelers; we’re calling the Under

Steelers  23

Chargers  19

LOCK OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers  -4.5. 40.5  LW

I challenge anyone to find one legitimate Lock on the Week Ten slate.

I’ll wait...

The Black Cats have been Underdogs all year--nine straight weeks--until this Sunday, but at 5-4, they certainly seem more respectable than the 1-7 New Orleans.

...Still waiting...

The Beatified Ones traded their best receiver, Rashid Shaheed to Seattle and as of this writing, HC Kellen Moore is planning to start and stay with rookie, Tyler Shough, at QB, after Spencer Rattler, aka “The Turnover Express” was benched last week.

...(Tapping feet...whistling aimlessly)...

Meanwhile, Dave Canales and his Claw of Panthers have surprised everyone and their step-mother by winning four of their last five, five of their last seven--and, last week,  they went into Lambeau and took the Packers down 16-13.  

...(Looking at watch, jiggling change in pants-pocket)...

Nobody expects these Panthers to make the Wildcard field, but in the parity-loving NFL, and residing in the less than brilliant NFC South, it could happen.

(Sitting in doctor’s office, flipping through four year-old People magazine)...

Even though--like my TNF pick a few days ago-- divisional games are notoriously unpredictable, but Carolina’s post-season future has more promise than the likliehood of anyone finding a true LOW pick on this Week 10 board.

Go with the Panthers to win and Cover a low scoring yawnfest.  

Actually, this was my first choice for the O/U of the Week, so we believe in the Under as much as the outcome.

Panthers 19

Saints 12

UPSET SPECIAL

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets  -1.5  37.5   US  [U]

We saw this line and snagged it on Wednesday with one question ping-ponging off our synapses.  How in the name of all that is holy can the Jets be favored against anyone?

Sometimes handicapping is simple.

The Jets are an awful football team; even worse after trading young phenom CB Sauce Gardner to Indy.

Cleveland is an awful football team--even worse after confirming Dillon Gabriel will start instead of Shadeur Sanders--though, they have a good defense.

The Browns won’t need the points  Play the Under.

Browns  22  

Jets 10

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK  

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts  -6.5  48.5 O/U

I was Daniel Jones biggest fan when he was in New York and he has proven me right, given his excellence in this 2025 NFL campaign with Indy.  He and Jonathan Taylor should make the biggest difference in this matchup; no way Atlanta’s Michael Penix and Bijan Robinson, good players themselves, can match the Colts duo yard for yard.

The Birds of Prey, losers of three in a row, have suffered bad losses against Miami, a 34-10 whipping, and the aforementioned Claw of Panthers, a 30 point shutout.

Indy lost two 27-10 tilts to playoff-caliber opponents--the Big Horns, and Pittsburgh.  Last week, Jones and Co. had no answers for a revived Black & Gold defense.  

We have to believe The Horseshoes are itching to prove that effort was a fluke.

I had this baby as an 8-9 point win for the Colts, but I’m expecting Atlanta to make it a game; they have a superb defense.  The Colt’s defense, also very good, could become great with the trade deadline addition of CB Sauce Gardner. 

The Baby Horse’s O-Line along with Taylor and Jones will flex their muscles in the fourth quarter and cement the win.

Lay the Points and go with the Under. 

COLTS 26

FALCONS 16

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)

NFL WEEK 10 ODDS  OVER/UNDERS (POINT TOTALS) 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos   -9.5  42.5  [U]

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts  -6.5  48.5 O/U

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers  -4.5. 40.5  LW

New York Giants @ Chicago Bears  -3.5. 48.5 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans  -1.5. 38.5 

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins  +8.5  50.5 

Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings  +3.5  47.5 

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets  -1.5  37.5   US  [U]

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers  -2.5   48.5 

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks  -7  44.5 SU

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers. +3.5  49.5 

Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders  +7.5  50.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers  -3  44.5. GW  [U]

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers  -2.5  45  [U]

The Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans are off this week.