NFL WEEK SIX - PICKS ATS
- Gary Porpora
- Oct 12
- 6 min read
Updated: 5 days ago
NFL 2025 WEEK FIVE = 6 - 8 2025 OVERALL. = 40 - 38
WEEKLY O/U = 3 - 6 O/U CUMULATIVE = 16 - 21
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 4 - 1 CUMULATIVE = 13 - 12
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 3 - 2 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 – 2
STEELERS/OTHER 1 - 4 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 29 - 33
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As usual, every NFL campaign has its own unique strangeness; 2025 is no different:
The Eagles stink...playing way under their talent level...& undisciplined...
The AFC North might be the NFL’s worst division....
Indy and Daniel Jones--Indiana Jones--look for real, with Shane Steichen calling plays...
The Chiefs look disorganized and unfocused under GOAT candidate, Andy Reid.
Where is Kelce? He seems distracted...
There is not a clear front-runner to get to the Super Bowl, from either conference...
As we can see above, the O/Us are kicking the Gairzo in the jewels this year and he has crashed back to earth. At least, we can count on some songs remaining the same.
Let’s tune our instruments, and make Week Six a huge bounce-back week--he said hopefully...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 49.5 GW [O]
Call it a Super Bowl loser’s hangover, or blame the Arrowheads lackluster start to the season on the future “Mr. Swifts” engagement being a distraction.
Surprisongly, Andy Reid’s group gives us the impression they are unsuccessfully trying to climb through a shrinking window, and/or are simply lacking focus.
Your Kansas City Chiefs have only two wins, and what’s worse, that all they should have. A
Week Four victory in the Crows nest--M*A*S*H* unit, following a good win against the upstart Giants.
I had this game a pick’em, the 2.5 in favor of the Lions represent decent value We’ll take the Points...
Basically, this baby features two elite offenses going against two pedestrian defenses. Take the points and tnhe Lions. Go with the Over.
Lions 30
Chiefs 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts -5.5 47.5 LW [U]
Daniel Jones and his Baby Horses have emerged as a bonafide offensive threat complemented by a solid defense. HC Shane Steichen has his squad believing.
Since Cardinals HC, Jonathan Gannon’s arrival, his teams have been plagued by inconsistency and Kyler Murray’s inability to stay healthy.
Add to that stew of misfortune, dissent in the desert. Gannon was fined 100K for confronting RB, Emari Demercado, for inexcusably fumbling the ball before crossing the goal line after a 72 yard TD scamper. Demecado’s mistake led directly to a 22-21 loss †o the Titans.
Gannon’s apology was another sickening example of the pussification of America. This society as a whole has to nut-up. Demercado’s unprofessional and untimely mistake cost Arizona a game that could, probably will, affect their chances of making the playoffs.
Gannon’s apology is heartfelt, and I get why he felt the need to kneel at the mea-culpa altar--but it was like he graped a 12 year-old.
Here’s the video of Demercado’s blunder and Gannon’s presser comments:
Here’s Gairzo’s presser if he were coach of the Cardinals:
You know what, I’m not apologizing for squat. The Bidwells pay me millions to win football games--and I can’t do it without my owner, my GM, and every player and staffer churning upstream toward the same goal--winning a Super Bowl...
Too many young players think this game owes them something when they have yet to pay any dues. If you are unprofessional enough to make that kind of unforced error at the crucial time, in any game, and I’m head coach--expect to get your ass chewed out--and I don’t care who’s watching.
The lesson is simple: RESPECT THE GAME...
I was wrong to get physical, but Emari is a strong dude, and a stand-up guy, and knows I slap players on the ass harder than I smacked his chest--he knew my intentions.
What I said to Emari and our team will remain in the locker room--there will be no further comment from me on the matter.
If Gannon had said that, his player’s his owner and everyone in the organization, and in Arizona would have respected him more.
Instead, we get sniffles and diapers because a player who can bench press a yacht got smacked in the chest.
America--the Victim’s Paradise...
OH YEAH--THE CALL...
I believe Indy is for real, and I think the Cardinals will rally to make a game of it, but won’t Cover. We’ll go with the Under.
Colt 26
Cardinals 19
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons +4 49.5 O/U
The Birds of Prey, finally field a stout NFL defense, featuring a secondary that might be the NFL’s best, allowing only 135 Pass YPG... and maybe Michael Penix Jr. is the franchise QB Atlanta has been looking for since Matt Ryan.
Josh Allen is a mule with a big arm and fast feet; there are fewer better passers in the league and none who can barrel over you like the former Wyoming product.
We only lean to Buffalo in this one because they have to still be smarting from last week’s divisional loss to the Pats.
The Falcons have been inconsistent--the Panthers shut them out--but the offense shows potential with Penix under center.
This one will be closer than we think.
Bills 27
Falcons 22
UPSET SPECIAL
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers -14.5 44.5 US [O]
Joe Flacco is no savior, but he is savvy enough not to make the mistakes Jake Browning did.
Don’t get me wrong, Green Bay is the far better team, on paper and on the field--and they are the home team here.
14.5 Points is too many for a favorite to Cover. In the last 20 such games featuring a 14.5 Point Spread, favorites are 4-16.
The Bengals need to show themselves, and their fans, they can overcome the loss of Joe Burrow.
They don’t have to win outright--and we don’t think they will--but they’ll Cover--Over the Total...
Packers 30
Bengals 19
STEELERS
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers - 4.5 37.5 [O]
Mike Tomlin’s record against rookie QBs is 26-6-, depending on your source. His Steelers are playing disciplined football--fewest penalties and yards in the league--and the defense has a +1.8 TO margin--per game.
The Steelers face eternal rival Cleveland in Pittsburgh’s first division matchup of 2025. The Brownies have a solid defense, the best in YPP surrendered, and second best in total YPG allowed, but they allow 24 PPG and only average 14.6 PPG on offense.
That doesn’t bode well for rookie QB, Dillon Gabriel, who Tomlin was gushing over in his weekly presser, but then again, the AFC North is full of hated rivals and these two fit that bill.
Neither Gabriel nor this year’s edition of the Steelers has proven much in the first quarter of the season. We’re betting on the blossoming connection between Aaron Rodgers an D.K. Metcalf and the tighter play --at least two weeks ago--of the overpaid Steeler defense.
Tomlin’s Steelers SU are the best off their bye, third in the league off a win, and best with a rest advantage...
ATS---second best with a rest advantage...a respectable 7th as a home favorite, and 11th after a bye..
As Underdogs and Road Dogs, Cleveland, ATS, is in the bottom five...SU, the Browns are dead last in both categories.
Normally, the Sharps say when everything screams one team’s way, that's when the Sharps bet the other side. We are ignoring that advice. The line on this one seems short; given the rookie QB and Cleveland’s likely jet lag via last week's London trip; we had this one pegged as a touchdown spot.
I’m laying the Chalk and calling the Over.
Steelers 30
Browns 13
As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)
NFL WEEK 6 ODDS: POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants +7 41.5 [U]
Denver Broncos vs New York Jets (in London) +7 43.5. [U]
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens +7 45.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers +3.5 48.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts -5.5 47.5 LW [U]
Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars PK 45.5
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins +3.5 44.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers - 4.5 37.5 [O]
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints: +3 46
Tennessee Titans @ Las Vegas Raiders -6 41.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 47.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers -14.5 44.5 US [O]
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 49.5 GW [O]
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons +4.5 49.5 O/U
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders -4 50.5. [U]
The Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings are off this week.
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