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  • Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK SEVEN - ATS


2022 NFL WEEK SEVEN – ATS


…And the Gairzo stumbles back to reality—or is it mediocrity?


Incompetence?


NFL 2022 WEEK SIX

WEEK SIX = 7 – 7 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 40 – 53 – 1

WEEK SIX 0/U = 3 – 4 OVER/UNDER CUMULATIVE 22 – 21

SPECIALS 1 – 3 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 13 – 11

GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 4

UPSET SPECIAL 5 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 – 3

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 35 – 32 7



GAME OF THE WEEK

Chicago Bears (+7.5) vs. New England Patriots (-7.5) 39.5 GW [U]


No matter the outcome of this cross-conference Monday Nighter you can be sure of two things:


  • Bill Belichick’s testicles will be spic and span shiny after Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, and Lisa Salter finish their ball-washing commentary about Bill Belichick’s historical status as he surpasses—with a victory—George Halas’ 324 all time wins.

  • Bill Belichick is the most sanctioned, infamous, and notorious cheater in the history of American team sports/coaches…


Here’s a refresher course of Belichick’s cheating to gain a competitive advantage:


https://www.businessinsider.com/patriots-cheating-scandals-accusations-examples-2019-12#now-read-about-some-of-the-biggest-controversies-in-nfl-history-16


For all you whack-job New England fans who use the ‘everybody does it” excuse or “what about ____(insert other NFL team name here)…


You can’t have it both ways, ya jag offs!


Billy Boy isn’t the genius Pats fans insist their coach is. His insipid, “I misinterpreted the rules” excuse during The Spygate saga reveals a stupidity beyond any defense. Belichick and his club were repeatedly warned for years to stop filming other teams signals and practices.


Belichick kept doing it.


Is that the action of a genius or a moron?


No matter how any football fan answers that question, we know it is the action of a Serial Cheater.


We also know that repeated action also would create a library of opponents’ signals. Given the constant coordinator recycling in the NFL, the “signal tree” of a guy like, say Wink Martindale, the former Baltimore DC would still be valuable when he moved to the Giants.


Think about it. What other purpose would be served by repeatedly breaking the no taping rule?


It’s a rhetorical question.


Here’s an article from 2010 that reveals Belichick’s cheating history and holds the NFL to account after Josh McDaniels, then Bronco head coach—a former NE OC under “the genius”—was fined for the same offense…(Please cut and paste)J


https://bleacherreport.com/articles/529745-denver-broncos-spygate-2-leads-to-shocking-news-about-new-england-patriots


Pay careful attention to what Jeffery Pash, NFL lead counsel says…He virtually admits to Belichick’s serial offenses…


Here’s an article verifying Belichick kept doing it as late as 2019:


https://www.cincyjungle.com/2020/6/28/21306408/patriots-news-nfl-bengals-sideline-recordi

ng-spygate-new-england-cincinnati


If you believe BB’s denials, I’m sure you will love to invest in an Eskimo resort I’m building in Death Valley. ( I have Venmo and Pay Pal accounts—please remember to thank me for letting you in on such a rare opportunity.)


DON’T FORGET DEFLATE-GATE


Right out of the Deflate-Gate—“What about the Ideal Gas Law?” is the obnoxious mantra of fanatical Patriots apologists. Now, unlike the wrongly informed folks who deny the science of, say, vaccinations or climate change, we readily embrace this air pressure science and defer to the science as valid…We trust science…


It almost changed our mind on the matter…Almost…


There is a “thing” in the human condition called common sense, and a concept in law called consciousness of guilt.


Common sense tells me repeat offenders who are completely innocent and who would want to preserve their reputations, wouldn’t feel compelled to destroy a cell phone, lie to investigators or suddenly call low level employees after not talking to them for 13 years.


Every defense attorney I saw on TV said such behavior was a classic example of consciousness of guilt.


Here are the relevant texts, conversations, and commentary surrounding Deflate-Gate.


Make up your own mind using common sense…


https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/may/06/fuckin-watermelons-coming-the-incriminating-deflategate-texts-in-full


CONCLUSION


First, a wink and an apology to my small but loyal audience who must endure my annual—it used to be bi-annual— “Bill Belichick is a HOF Cheater” column, but the inevitable ball washing gets harder to watch as he surpasses the coaches who didn’t cheat.


Simply, it bothers me Belichick is mentioned in the same breath as Lombardi, Shula, Landry, or Noll.


Second, if you want to proclaim Belichick as the greatest coach, Armstrong the greatest cyclist, or Bonds the greatest slugger, this is America—have at it.


We like to think in factual context:


  • We do know Bond’s hat size grew significantly and he gained 55 -60 pounds after leaving Pittsburgh.

  • We know blood doping gave Lance Armstrong significantly stronger lungs than any other elite cyclist.

  • We can never know to what degree or how many of Belichick’s wins were influenced by his cheating…


Maybe that’s why the NFL condones and enables the Belichicks of its world. Somebody has to protect The Shield.


The only remaining question: Who protects The Shield from itself?


OH YEAH, THE GAME


Here are some interesting trends courtesy of Oddssharks.com


· Chicago is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog.

· Chicago is 0-9 SU in its last 9 prime-time games.

· New England is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite.

· The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games.

· Chicago is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.

· Chicago is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games against New England.

· Chicago is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against New England.

· Chicago is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road.

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games.

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games against Chicago.

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games at home.

  • New England is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference.

  • New England is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference North division.

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games played in October.

  • Since 2003, the Patriots are the NFL’s best Home Favorite ATS = .584…SU = .832


Saddest part of all of Belichick’s infamy…Given his ability to evaluate talent and get players to buy into his philosophy and system, he probably would’ve won enough to earn a spot in Canton anyway.


Chicago is a young team who can run the ball; they don’t do much of anything else well.


Belichick has been chasing history after begging Roger Goodell not to suspend him after his previous cheating scandals. He knows what’s at stake; and he knows , in 2-3 more seasons he will surpass Don Shula as the NFL’s winningest coach.


Lay the points. I’m playing the Under.


Patriots 26

Bears 13




LOCK OF THE WEEK


New York Jets (+3.5) vs. Denver Broncos (-3.5) 42.5 LW [U]


Words that haven’t been spoken in 53 years: “Damn, these Jets might be for real!”


In this one, The Airplanes really don’t have to be real. Play solid football, score 17+ points—and watch the steam waft off the hot mess that is your 2022 Denver Broncos.


From head coach, Nathaniel Hackett—whose team drags itself down with bad pre-snap and personal foul penalties, and who had to hire an assistant to help manage the end of games—to Russell Wilson, who has collided head first with a Mile High wall of funk, incompetence, or Father Time.


The incompetence of the Wild Horses on offense is equaled only by the excellence of their Top Four defense—best in preventing Red Zone scoring.


I don’t think the Broncos can score more than ten points, especially with such a leaky O-Line. They are 28th in Sacks given up % and Wilson ranks the same, completing only 58.59% of his passes. What’s more he completely lost his legs—and hidden injuries might force backup, Brett Rypien into the game.


Uh-oh…


These Denver Broncos shouldn’t be favored against anyone.


Lay the Points; play the Under.


Jets 27

Broncos 15



UPSET SPECIAL


NY Giants (+3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (- 3.5) 42.5 US [U]


I’ve always been straight with my readers—I just spent three hours in an Irish Pub celebrating my oldest boy’s birthday…


Can The Gairzo still write?


Hemingway wrote The Old man and The Sea on dark rum and warm Coke…


OH, SHUT UP!!!


The Giants and HC, Brian Daboll are the darlings of the NFL. You heard it here first—Daniel Jones is the next megastar in the NFL QB fraternity.


Big Blue is playing consistent football, executing superbly on both sides of the line.


The stats mostly favor the Jags, but the G-Men have a swagger that’s hard to resist.


Saquon Barclay has a big day. Play the Under…


Jaguars 21


Giants 20



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs. Washington Commanders 41.5 O/U


The Over has been hitting at an historically low frequency in 2022---but your favorite handicapper believes this is the game when Aaron Rodgers rights the Packers ship and drubs a very drubbable Washington squad without Carson Wentz—whose absence might not be a bad thing for the Commanders.


Both these teams’ defenses have underperformed to embarrassing levels this season. Aaron Rodgers possesses the will and skills to exploit a very mediocre Washington defense..


I doubt Taylor Heinicke can return the favor in Wentz’s absence but Green Bay does allow opponents to complete over 70% of their passes.


We’re going with Rodgers to win big and shut up his critics—yet again.


The Over is our Premium Play.


Packers 30

Commanders 10



As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated:


NFL WEEK 7 POINT SPREADS

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) 45.5

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) 46.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) vs. Carolina Panthers (+9.5) 40.5

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) 47.5

Detroit Lions (+6.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) 47.5

NY Giants (+3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (- 3.5) 42.5 US [U]

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5) 42.5

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs. Washington Commanders 41.5 O/U

New York Jets (+3.5) vs. Denver Broncos (-3.5) 42.5 LW [U]

Houston Texans (+6.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5) 45.5

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) 52.5

K.C Chiefs (-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) 48.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) vs. Miami Dolphins (-6.5) 44.5 [O]

Chicago Bears (+7.5) vs. New England Patriots (-7.5) 39.5 GW [U]


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